2026
Journal Articles
1.
Gunner, Richard M.; Wilson, Rory P.; Lurgi, Miguel; Börger, Luca; Redcliffe, James; Shepard, Emily L. C.; Holton, Mark D.; Crofoot, Margaret C.; Alagaili, Abdulaziz; Andrzejaczek, Samantha; Ariano‐Sánchez, Daniel; Barbedette‐Gerard, Thomas; Bennett, Nigel C.; Bernard, Alice; Brown, Rowan; Cole, Nik; Creel, Scott; Cruz‐Neto, Ariovaldo P.; Virgilio, Agustina Di; Duarte, Carlos M.; Eizaguirre, Christophe; Elliott, Kyle H.; Faltusova, Monika; Garel, Mathieu; Gillies, Natasha; Gleiss, Adrian C.; Göppert, Aoife; Grémillet, David; Grissac, Sophie De; Guilford, Tim; Hoareau, Maxime; Jessopp, Mark; Gómez‐Laich, Agustina; Jezek, Milos; Lambertucci, Sergio A.; Marchand, Pascal; Marks, Nikki; Martins, Andréia; Meekan, Mark; Mizutani, Yuichi; Mortensen, Rasmus M.; Norman, Bradley M.; Ortega, Josue; Padget, Oliver; Painter, Michael; Ponchon, Aurore; Provost, Pascal; Prudor, Aurélien; Quintana, Flavio; Reinhardt, Stefanie; Reynolds, Samantha D.; Rosell, Frank; Ruiz‐Miranda, Carlos R.; Ryan, Peter G.; Scantlebury, David M.; Schoombie, Stefan; Scott, Rebecca; Silovsky, Vaclav; Steenbeek, Jeroen; Tatayah, Vikash; Toïgo, Carole; Torrez, Lucia; Tremblay, Fred; Twining, Joshua P.; Yoda, Ken; Weimerskirch, Henri; Whelan, Shannon; Morales, Juan M.; Potts, Jonathan R.
High resolution data reveal fundamental steps and turns in animal movements Journal Article
In: Ecological Monographs, vol. 96, no. 2, pp. e70069, 2026, ISSN: 0012-9615, 1557-7015.
Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags: behaviour, Ecospace, IBM, niche modelling
@article{gunner_high_2026,
title = {High resolution data reveal fundamental steps and turns in animal movements},
author = {Richard M. Gunner and Rory P. Wilson and Miguel Lurgi and Luca B\"{o}rger and James Redcliffe and Emily L. C. Shepard and Mark D. Holton and Margaret C. Crofoot and Abdulaziz Alagaili and Samantha Andrzejaczek and Daniel Ariano‐S\'{a}nchez and Thomas Barbedette‐Gerard and Nigel C. Bennett and Alice Bernard and Rowan Brown and Nik Cole and Scott Creel and Ariovaldo P. Cruz‐Neto and Agustina Di Virgilio and Carlos M. Duarte and Christophe Eizaguirre and Kyle H. Elliott and Monika Faltusova and Mathieu Garel and Natasha Gillies and Adrian C. Gleiss and Aoife G\"{o}ppert and David Gr\'{e}millet and Sophie De Grissac and Tim Guilford and Maxime Hoareau and Mark Jessopp and Agustina G\'{o}mez‐Laich and Milos Jezek and Sergio A. Lambertucci and Pascal Marchand and Nikki Marks and Andr\'{e}ia Martins and Mark Meekan and Yuichi Mizutani and Rasmus M. Mortensen and Bradley M. Norman and Josue Ortega and Oliver Padget and Michael Painter and Aurore Ponchon and Pascal Provost and Aur\'{e}lien Prudor and Flavio Quintana and Stefanie Reinhardt and Samantha D. Reynolds and Frank Rosell and Carlos R. Ruiz‐Miranda and Peter G. Ryan and David M. Scantlebury and Stefan Schoombie and Rebecca Scott and Vaclav Silovsky and Jeroen Steenbeek and Vikash Tatayah and Carole To\"{i}go and Lucia Torrez and Fred Tremblay and Joshua P. Twining and Ken Yoda and Henri Weimerskirch and Shannon Whelan and Juan M. Morales and Jonathan R. Potts},
url = {https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/ecm.70069},
doi = {10.1002/ecm.70069},
issn = {0012-9615, 1557-7015},
year = {2026},
date = {2026-05-01},
urldate = {2026-05-01},
journal = {Ecological Monographs},
volume = {96},
number = {2},
pages = {e70069},
abstract = {Abstract
Animal movement paths display substantial complexity and variability, promoting efforts to identify universal rules and models that best describe them. Using high‐resolution (≥10 Hz) movement from 43 vertebrate species spanning diverse taxa, body sizes, and lifestyles, we show that paths are universally composed of straight‐line steps interspersed with sharp turns, echoing patterns documented in lower taxa such as bacteria. We report how vertebrate “fundamental steps”\textemdashstraight travel segments between successive detected turns (with
F
stepduration
as the turn‐to‐turn interval and
F
steplength
as the corresponding distance when displacement is available)\textemdashand “fundamental turn angles” (
F
turnangles
; net changes in travel heading between successive steps) vary with species\' mass, locomotor mode, behavior, and environment. Here, “fundamental” denotes the finest scale step/turn events resolvable under our sampling rate and turn‐detection criteria; these event‐scale steps/turns are intrinsically different from the straight‐line segments inferred from low‐resolution position data. To explain these relationships, we posit that animals inherently move in a straight line until sensory information signals a better heading, triggering a turn. Across all species examined, animals spent the vast majority of their travel time moving in straight lines (species‐level means \>90%), with turns representing discrete decision points influenced by body size, locomotor mode, and ecological context. Larger animals turned less frequently, consistent with biomechanical constraints of mass and rotational inertia, while aerial species often exhibited higher turning rates driven by soaring flight demands. We further show that turns can be linked to diverse behavioral drivers, including prey pursuit, obstacle avoidance, predator evasion, and exploitation of environmental energy. By explicitly quantifying turns, we clarify how distributions of step durations and turn angles interact to shape movement patterns and why different statistical models (e.g., correlated random walks, L\'{e}vy flights) emerge when lower resolution data are analyzed. Finally, we demonstrate how fundamental steps and turns can be incorporated into an agent‐based modeling framework using penguins as a case study, enabling reconstruction of realistic tracks and prediction of movement responses to environmental change. Straight‐line travel punctuated by decision‐driven turns thus emerges as a fundamental principle of vertebrate movement, linking fine‐scale movement structure, ecological context, and emergent patterns of space use.},
keywords = {behaviour, Ecospace, IBM, niche modelling},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Abstract
Animal movement paths display substantial complexity and variability, promoting efforts to identify universal rules and models that best describe them. Using high‐resolution (≥10 Hz) movement from 43 vertebrate species spanning diverse taxa, body sizes, and lifestyles, we show that paths are universally composed of straight‐line steps interspersed with sharp turns, echoing patterns documented in lower taxa such as bacteria. We report how vertebrate “fundamental steps”—straight travel segments between successive detected turns (with
F
stepduration
as the turn‐to‐turn interval and
F
steplength
as the corresponding distance when displacement is available)—and “fundamental turn angles” (
F
turnangles
; net changes in travel heading between successive steps) vary with species' mass, locomotor mode, behavior, and environment. Here, “fundamental” denotes the finest scale step/turn events resolvable under our sampling rate and turn‐detection criteria; these event‐scale steps/turns are intrinsically different from the straight‐line segments inferred from low‐resolution position data. To explain these relationships, we posit that animals inherently move in a straight line until sensory information signals a better heading, triggering a turn. Across all species examined, animals spent the vast majority of their travel time moving in straight lines (species‐level means >90%), with turns representing discrete decision points influenced by body size, locomotor mode, and ecological context. Larger animals turned less frequently, consistent with biomechanical constraints of mass and rotational inertia, while aerial species often exhibited higher turning rates driven by soaring flight demands. We further show that turns can be linked to diverse behavioral drivers, including prey pursuit, obstacle avoidance, predator evasion, and exploitation of environmental energy. By explicitly quantifying turns, we clarify how distributions of step durations and turn angles interact to shape movement patterns and why different statistical models (e.g., correlated random walks, Lévy flights) emerge when lower resolution data are analyzed. Finally, we demonstrate how fundamental steps and turns can be incorporated into an agent‐based modeling framework using penguins as a case study, enabling reconstruction of realistic tracks and prediction of movement responses to environmental change. Straight‐line travel punctuated by decision‐driven turns thus emerges as a fundamental principle of vertebrate movement, linking fine‐scale movement structure, ecological context, and emergent patterns of space use.
Animal movement paths display substantial complexity and variability, promoting efforts to identify universal rules and models that best describe them. Using high‐resolution (≥10 Hz) movement from 43 vertebrate species spanning diverse taxa, body sizes, and lifestyles, we show that paths are universally composed of straight‐line steps interspersed with sharp turns, echoing patterns documented in lower taxa such as bacteria. We report how vertebrate “fundamental steps”—straight travel segments between successive detected turns (with
F
stepduration
as the turn‐to‐turn interval and
F
steplength
as the corresponding distance when displacement is available)—and “fundamental turn angles” (
F
turnangles
; net changes in travel heading between successive steps) vary with species' mass, locomotor mode, behavior, and environment. Here, “fundamental” denotes the finest scale step/turn events resolvable under our sampling rate and turn‐detection criteria; these event‐scale steps/turns are intrinsically different from the straight‐line segments inferred from low‐resolution position data. To explain these relationships, we posit that animals inherently move in a straight line until sensory information signals a better heading, triggering a turn. Across all species examined, animals spent the vast majority of their travel time moving in straight lines (species‐level means >90%), with turns representing discrete decision points influenced by body size, locomotor mode, and ecological context. Larger animals turned less frequently, consistent with biomechanical constraints of mass and rotational inertia, while aerial species often exhibited higher turning rates driven by soaring flight demands. We further show that turns can be linked to diverse behavioral drivers, including prey pursuit, obstacle avoidance, predator evasion, and exploitation of environmental energy. By explicitly quantifying turns, we clarify how distributions of step durations and turn angles interact to shape movement patterns and why different statistical models (e.g., correlated random walks, Lévy flights) emerge when lower resolution data are analyzed. Finally, we demonstrate how fundamental steps and turns can be incorporated into an agent‐based modeling framework using penguins as a case study, enabling reconstruction of realistic tracks and prediction of movement responses to environmental change. Straight‐line travel punctuated by decision‐driven turns thus emerges as a fundamental principle of vertebrate movement, linking fine‐scale movement structure, ecological context, and emergent patterns of space use.
2.
Roberts, Kelsey E.; Rohr, Tyler; Raven, Morgan R.; Diamond, Michael S.; Visioni, Daniele; Kravitz, Ben; Heneghan, Ryan; Petrik, Colleen M.; Bianchi, Daniele; Ortega‐Cisneros, Kelly; Morrison, Monica A.; Heerden, Vanessa Van; Wiseman, Nicola A.; Anil, Gouri; Cannizzo, Zachary J.; Coll, Marta; Coupe, Joshua; Freedman, Ryan; Krumhardt, Kristen; Kwiatkowski, Lester; Lovenduski, Nicole S.; Luo, Jessica Y.; Olivarez, Holly C.; Robock, Alan; Steenbeek, Jeroen; Harrison, Cheryl S.
Potential Impacts of Climate Interventions on Marine Ecosystems Journal Article
In: Reviews of Geophysics, vol. 64, no. 1, pp. e2024RG000876, 2026, ISSN: 8755-1209, 1944-9208.
Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags: climate change impacts, climate intervention, EcoOcean, FishMIP, global ecosystem modeling
@article{roberts_potential_2026,
title = {Potential Impacts of Climate Interventions on Marine Ecosystems},
author = {Kelsey E. Roberts and Tyler Rohr and Morgan R. Raven and Michael S. Diamond and Daniele Visioni and Ben Kravitz and Ryan Heneghan and Colleen M. Petrik and Daniele Bianchi and Kelly Ortega‐Cisneros and Monica A. Morrison and Vanessa Van Heerden and Nicola A. Wiseman and Gouri Anil and Zachary J. Cannizzo and Marta Coll and Joshua Coupe and Ryan Freedman and Kristen Krumhardt and Lester Kwiatkowski and Nicole S. Lovenduski and Jessica Y. Luo and Holly C. Olivarez and Alan Robock and Jeroen Steenbeek and Cheryl S. Harrison},
url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2024RG000876},
doi = {10.1029/2024RG000876},
issn = {8755-1209, 1944-9208},
year = {2026},
date = {2026-03-01},
urldate = {2026-03-01},
journal = {Reviews of Geophysics},
volume = {64},
number = {1},
pages = {e2024RG000876},
abstract = {Abstract
Rising global temperatures pose significant risks to marine ecosystems, biodiversity, and fisheries. Recent comprehensive assessments suggest that large‐scale mitigation efforts to limit warming are falling short, and all feasible future climate projections, including those that represent optimistic emissions reductions, exceed the Paris Agreement\'s 1.5°C or 2° warming targets during this century. While avoiding further CO2 emissions remains the most effective way to prevent environmental destabilization, interest is growing in climate interventions\textemdashdeliberate, large‐scale manipulations of the environment aimed at reducing global warming. These include carbon dioxide removal (CDR) to reduce atmospheric CO2 concentrations over time, and solar radiation modification (SRM), which reflects sunlight to lower surface temperatures but does not address root CO2 causes. The effects of these interventions on marine ecosystems, both direct and in combination with ongoing climate change, remain highly uncertain. Given the ocean\'s central role in regulating Earth\'s climate and supporting global food security, understanding these potential effects is crucial. This review provides an overview of proposed intervention methodologies for marine CDR and SRM and outlines the potential trade‐offs and knowledge gaps associated with their impacts on marine ecosystems. Climate interventions have the potential to reduce warming‐driven impacts, but could also alter marine food systems, biodiversity and ecosystem function. Effects will vary by pathway, scale, and regional context. Pathway‐specific impact assessments are thus crucial to quantify trade‐offs between plausible intervention scenarios as well as to identify their expected impacts on marine ecosystems in order to prioritize scaling efforts for low‐risk pathways and avoid high‐risk scenarios.
Plain Language Summary
A rise in global temperatures from 1.5 to 2°C or above historical levels threatens marine life, ecosystems, biodiversity, and the sustainability of fisheries. Recent studies highlight that current efforts to keep warming within critical limits are insufficient, and even optimistic future climate scenarios predict that the 1.5°C threshold established by the Paris Agreement will be surpassed. In this context, climate intervention strategies are being explored as ways to potentially reduce the worsening effects of climate change and complement, not replace, decarbonization efforts. These strategies aim to either remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere or reflect sunlight back into space to cool the Earth. While currently an understudied area of research, these methods could have profound impacts on the ocean, including changes to sea surface temperature and nutrient cycling, which in turn affect the abundance, distribution, and diversity of marine life as well as the human communities that rely on marine resources. This review synthesizes current research on the climate intervention strategies that are most likely to have direct impacts on the marine environment, emphasizing knowledge gaps as they relate to the potential impacts on marine ecosystems and the need for improved predictive models.
,
Key Points
Climate intervention research is expanding as current mitigation efforts to limit warming below crucial targets are falling short
Substantial knowledge gaps exist on the potential impacts of climate intervention strategies on marine ecological systems
We review the potential impacts of climate intervention on marine ecosystems, including biotic and abiotic factors},
keywords = {climate change impacts, climate intervention, EcoOcean, FishMIP, global ecosystem modeling},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Abstract
Rising global temperatures pose significant risks to marine ecosystems, biodiversity, and fisheries. Recent comprehensive assessments suggest that large‐scale mitigation efforts to limit warming are falling short, and all feasible future climate projections, including those that represent optimistic emissions reductions, exceed the Paris Agreement's 1.5°C or 2° warming targets during this century. While avoiding further CO2 emissions remains the most effective way to prevent environmental destabilization, interest is growing in climate interventions—deliberate, large‐scale manipulations of the environment aimed at reducing global warming. These include carbon dioxide removal (CDR) to reduce atmospheric CO2 concentrations over time, and solar radiation modification (SRM), which reflects sunlight to lower surface temperatures but does not address root CO2 causes. The effects of these interventions on marine ecosystems, both direct and in combination with ongoing climate change, remain highly uncertain. Given the ocean's central role in regulating Earth's climate and supporting global food security, understanding these potential effects is crucial. This review provides an overview of proposed intervention methodologies for marine CDR and SRM and outlines the potential trade‐offs and knowledge gaps associated with their impacts on marine ecosystems. Climate interventions have the potential to reduce warming‐driven impacts, but could also alter marine food systems, biodiversity and ecosystem function. Effects will vary by pathway, scale, and regional context. Pathway‐specific impact assessments are thus crucial to quantify trade‐offs between plausible intervention scenarios as well as to identify their expected impacts on marine ecosystems in order to prioritize scaling efforts for low‐risk pathways and avoid high‐risk scenarios.
Plain Language Summary
A rise in global temperatures from 1.5 to 2°C or above historical levels threatens marine life, ecosystems, biodiversity, and the sustainability of fisheries. Recent studies highlight that current efforts to keep warming within critical limits are insufficient, and even optimistic future climate scenarios predict that the 1.5°C threshold established by the Paris Agreement will be surpassed. In this context, climate intervention strategies are being explored as ways to potentially reduce the worsening effects of climate change and complement, not replace, decarbonization efforts. These strategies aim to either remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere or reflect sunlight back into space to cool the Earth. While currently an understudied area of research, these methods could have profound impacts on the ocean, including changes to sea surface temperature and nutrient cycling, which in turn affect the abundance, distribution, and diversity of marine life as well as the human communities that rely on marine resources. This review synthesizes current research on the climate intervention strategies that are most likely to have direct impacts on the marine environment, emphasizing knowledge gaps as they relate to the potential impacts on marine ecosystems and the need for improved predictive models.
,
Key Points
Climate intervention research is expanding as current mitigation efforts to limit warming below crucial targets are falling short
Substantial knowledge gaps exist on the potential impacts of climate intervention strategies on marine ecological systems
We review the potential impacts of climate intervention on marine ecosystems, including biotic and abiotic factors
Rising global temperatures pose significant risks to marine ecosystems, biodiversity, and fisheries. Recent comprehensive assessments suggest that large‐scale mitigation efforts to limit warming are falling short, and all feasible future climate projections, including those that represent optimistic emissions reductions, exceed the Paris Agreement's 1.5°C or 2° warming targets during this century. While avoiding further CO2 emissions remains the most effective way to prevent environmental destabilization, interest is growing in climate interventions—deliberate, large‐scale manipulations of the environment aimed at reducing global warming. These include carbon dioxide removal (CDR) to reduce atmospheric CO2 concentrations over time, and solar radiation modification (SRM), which reflects sunlight to lower surface temperatures but does not address root CO2 causes. The effects of these interventions on marine ecosystems, both direct and in combination with ongoing climate change, remain highly uncertain. Given the ocean's central role in regulating Earth's climate and supporting global food security, understanding these potential effects is crucial. This review provides an overview of proposed intervention methodologies for marine CDR and SRM and outlines the potential trade‐offs and knowledge gaps associated with their impacts on marine ecosystems. Climate interventions have the potential to reduce warming‐driven impacts, but could also alter marine food systems, biodiversity and ecosystem function. Effects will vary by pathway, scale, and regional context. Pathway‐specific impact assessments are thus crucial to quantify trade‐offs between plausible intervention scenarios as well as to identify their expected impacts on marine ecosystems in order to prioritize scaling efforts for low‐risk pathways and avoid high‐risk scenarios.
Plain Language Summary
A rise in global temperatures from 1.5 to 2°C or above historical levels threatens marine life, ecosystems, biodiversity, and the sustainability of fisheries. Recent studies highlight that current efforts to keep warming within critical limits are insufficient, and even optimistic future climate scenarios predict that the 1.5°C threshold established by the Paris Agreement will be surpassed. In this context, climate intervention strategies are being explored as ways to potentially reduce the worsening effects of climate change and complement, not replace, decarbonization efforts. These strategies aim to either remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere or reflect sunlight back into space to cool the Earth. While currently an understudied area of research, these methods could have profound impacts on the ocean, including changes to sea surface temperature and nutrient cycling, which in turn affect the abundance, distribution, and diversity of marine life as well as the human communities that rely on marine resources. This review synthesizes current research on the climate intervention strategies that are most likely to have direct impacts on the marine environment, emphasizing knowledge gaps as they relate to the potential impacts on marine ecosystems and the need for improved predictive models.
,
Key Points
Climate intervention research is expanding as current mitigation efforts to limit warming below crucial targets are falling short
Substantial knowledge gaps exist on the potential impacts of climate intervention strategies on marine ecological systems
We review the potential impacts of climate intervention on marine ecosystems, including biotic and abiotic factors
3.
Noleto-Filho, Eurico M.; Reis-Filho, José Amorim; Giarrizzo, Tommaso; Keenlyside, Noel; Carvalho, Adriana R.; Coll, Marta; Steenbeek, Jeroen; Angelini, Ronaldo
Foodwebai: Creating and augmenting food webs with natural language models Journal Article
In: SoftwareX, vol. 35, pp. 102812, 2026.
@article{noleto-filho_foodwebai_2026,
title = {Foodwebai: Creating and augmenting food webs with natural language models},
author = {Eurico M. Noleto-Filho and Jos\'{e} Amorim Reis-Filho and Tommaso Giarrizzo and Noel Keenlyside and Adriana R. Carvalho and Marta Coll and Jeroen Steenbeek and Ronaldo Angelini},
url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2352711026003043},
year = {2026},
date = {2026-01-01},
urldate = {2026-07-15},
journal = {SoftwareX},
volume = {35},
pages = {102812},
publisher = {Elsevier},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
4.
Peck, Myron A.; Coll, Marta; Lynam, Christopher P.; Szalaj, Dorota; Puntila-Dodd, Riikka; Corrales, Xavier; Ortega, Miquel; Tomczak, Maciej T.; Espasandín, Lucia; Castro-Cadenas, María D.
Scenarios of Marine Nature-based Solutions and Sustainable Seafood Harvesting in a Future Climate Journal Article
In: Nature-Based Solutions, pp. 100357, 2026.
@article{peck_scenarios_2026,
title = {Scenarios of Marine Nature-based Solutions and Sustainable Seafood Harvesting in a Future Climate},
author = {Myron A. Peck and Marta Coll and Christopher P. Lynam and Dorota Szalaj and Riikka Puntila-Dodd and Xavier Corrales and Miquel Ortega and Maciej T. Tomczak and Lucia Espasand\'{i}n and Mar\'{i}a D. Castro-Cadenas},
url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2772411526000571},
year = {2026},
date = {2026-01-01},
urldate = {2026-07-15},
journal = {Nature-Based Solutions},
pages = {100357},
publisher = {Elsevier},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
5.
Bas, Maria; Ortega, Miquel; Ramírez, Francisco; Steenbeek, Jeroen; Coll, Marta
A new Western Mediterranean Sea EBSAs proposal based on quantitative information of key criteria Journal Article
In: Marine Policy, vol. 188, pp. 107075, 2026.
@article{bas_new_2026,
title = {A new Western Mediterranean Sea EBSAs proposal based on quantitative information of key criteria},
author = {Maria Bas and Miquel Ortega and Francisco Ram\'{i}rez and Jeroen Steenbeek and Marta Coll},
url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0308597X2600045X},
year = {2026},
date = {2026-01-01},
urldate = {2026-07-15},
journal = {Marine Policy},
volume = {188},
pages = {107075},
publisher = {Elsevier},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
6.
Artana, Camila; Kaplan, Andrea; Ramírez, Francisco; Ortega, Miquel; Steenbeek, Jeroen Gerhard; Coll, Marta
Marine heatwaves are transforming Western mediterranean marine ecosystems Journal Article
In: Scientific Reports, 2026.
@article{artana_marine_2026,
title = {Marine heatwaves are transforming Western mediterranean marine ecosystems},
author = {Camila Artana and Andrea Kaplan and Francisco Ram\'{i}rez and Miquel Ortega and Jeroen Gerhard Steenbeek and Marta Coll},
url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-026-35813-x},
year = {2026},
date = {2026-01-01},
urldate = {2026-07-15},
journal = {Scientific Reports},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group UK London},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
7.
Rodríguez-Fonseca, Belén; Calvo-Miguélez, Elena; Montoya-Carramolino, Lucia; Rodrigues, Regina R.; Polo, Irene; Martín-Rey, Marta; Losada, Teresa; López-Parages, Jorge; Gómara, Iñigo; Rivas, David
ENSO impacts on marine ecosystems and fisheries in the tropical and South Atlantic Journal Article
In: Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, vol. 7, no. 1, pp. 43–59, 2026.
@article{rodriguez-fonseca_enso_2026,
title = {ENSO impacts on marine ecosystems and fisheries in the tropical and South Atlantic},
author = {Bel\'{e}n Rodr\'{i}guez-Fonseca and Elena Calvo-Migu\'{e}lez and Lucia Montoya-Carramolino and Regina R. Rodrigues and Irene Polo and Marta Mart\'{i}n-Rey and Teresa Losada and Jorge L\'{o}pez-Parages and I\~{n}igo G\'{o}mara and David Rivas},
url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/s43017-025-00742-2},
year = {2026},
date = {2026-01-01},
urldate = {2026-07-15},
journal = {Nature Reviews Earth \& Environment},
volume = {7},
number = {1},
pages = {43\textendash59},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group UK London},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Miscellaneous
8.
Gordó-Vilaseca, Cesc; Coll, Marta; Steenbeek, Jeroen; Tittensor, Derek; Jacquemont, Juliette; Stephenson, Fabrice; Loiseau, Charles; Stanley, Ryan R. E.; e Costa, Barbara Horta; Claudet, Joachim
European Target of 10% Strict Protection could Benefit Fisheries within a Decade Miscellaneous
2026.
Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags: ecological modelling, Fisheries sustainability, Marine protected areas
@misc{gordo-vilaseca_european_2026,
title = {European Target of 10% Strict Protection could Benefit Fisheries within a Decade},
author = {Cesc Gord\'{o}-Vilaseca and Marta Coll and Jeroen Steenbeek and Derek Tittensor and Juliette Jacquemont and Fabrice Stephenson and Charles Loiseau and Ryan R. E. Stanley and Barbara Horta e Costa and Joachim Claudet},
url = {https://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=7096254},
doi = {10.2139/ssrn.7096254},
year = {2026},
date = {2026-07-01},
urldate = {2026-07-01},
publisher = {Social Science Research Network},
address = {Rochester, NY},
abstract = {Marine protected areas (MPAs) are a proven conservation tool, but their effects on adjacent fisheries remain unclear, contributing to ongoing debate over whether achieving global biodiversity targets will ultimately benefit or disadvantage fisheries. Using the French Gulf of Lion MPA network as an example, we applied a spatio-temporal mechanistic model with 56 functional groups to assess the ecological and fisheries outcomes of meeting the European Commission target of 10% strict protection. We show that locating networks of strict protection in the most productive areas, even when overlapping with fishing grounds, can generate positive fisheries outcomes with increased catch and revenues in comparison with a business-as-usual scenario, with no additional protection. In some scenarios, revenues recovered after 6 years, while catches took more than a decade to recover, and both were preceded by small short-term declines. In contrast, random placement of strict protection, as well as strategies avoiding fishing grounds and minimizing short-term conflict, may impose costs on the fishing sector without co-delivering positive outcomes. Our results highlight how strategically designed networks of fully protected areas can contribute to both conservation and sustainable use targets, informing broader global conservation planning efforts.},
keywords = {ecological modelling, Fisheries sustainability, Marine protected areas},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {misc}
}
Marine protected areas (MPAs) are a proven conservation tool, but their effects on adjacent fisheries remain unclear, contributing to ongoing debate over whether achieving global biodiversity targets will ultimately benefit or disadvantage fisheries. Using the French Gulf of Lion MPA network as an example, we applied a spatio-temporal mechanistic model with 56 functional groups to assess the ecological and fisheries outcomes of meeting the European Commission target of 10% strict protection. We show that locating networks of strict protection in the most productive areas, even when overlapping with fishing grounds, can generate positive fisheries outcomes with increased catch and revenues in comparison with a business-as-usual scenario, with no additional protection. In some scenarios, revenues recovered after 6 years, while catches took more than a decade to recover, and both were preceded by small short-term declines. In contrast, random placement of strict protection, as well as strategies avoiding fishing grounds and minimizing short-term conflict, may impose costs on the fishing sector without co-delivering positive outcomes. Our results highlight how strategically designed networks of fully protected areas can contribute to both conservation and sustainable use targets, informing broader global conservation planning efforts.
9.
Gal, Gideon; Islam, Tushith; Ofir, Eyal; Steenbeek, Jeroen; Bookman, Revital; Lahav, Ella; Peled, Yoav; Astrahan, Peleg
The projected impacts and implications of bottom spill events on an ultra-oligotrophic marine ecosystem Miscellaneous
2026.
Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags: deep uncertainty, Eastern Mediterranean Sea, Ecosim, Ecospace, food web functioning, OpenOil, pollution
@misc{gal_projected_2026,
title = {The projected impacts and implications of bottom spill events on an ultra-oligotrophic marine ecosystem},
author = {Gideon Gal and Tushith Islam and Eyal Ofir and Jeroen Steenbeek and Revital Bookman and Ella Lahav and Yoav Peled and Peleg Astrahan},
url = {https://papers.ssrn.com/abstract=7044513},
doi = {10.2139/ssrn.7044513},
year = {2026},
date = {2026-07-01},
urldate = {2026-07-15},
publisher = {Social Science Research Network},
address = {Rochester, NY},
abstract = {The exploration, production, extraction, and transport of fossil fuels in the marine environment are accompanied by an inherent risk to the surrounding ecosystems as a result of ongoing operations or technical faults, accidents, or geo-hazards. Limited research has been conducted on the potential impact of fossil fuel pollution on the Mediterranean marine ecosystem due to the lack of information on organism responses to hydrocarbon pollution. In this study, we utilized the OpenOil model to simulate deep-water pollution events and Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE) food-web models of the Israeli coastal region to evaluate and quantify the possible ecological impacts of pollution events that might occur due to fossil fuel exploitation-related activities. The models included local organism response curves to various contaminant levels, such as crude oil and condensate, in the water column and on the sea floor sediments. We further included deep uncertainty tools to introduce uncertainty associated with the scenarios, EwE model parameters, and functions. The results highlighted the spatial and temporal extent of the impact on the food web. In addition, by applying the deep uncertainty approach, we evaluated the impact on food-web functioning and projected possible outcomes of pollution events of varying intensities. The results of this study provide a quantitative assessment of the expected ecological impacts, which could assist decision-makers in developing management and conservation strategies.},
keywords = {deep uncertainty, Eastern Mediterranean Sea, Ecosim, Ecospace, food web functioning, OpenOil, pollution},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {misc}
}
The exploration, production, extraction, and transport of fossil fuels in the marine environment are accompanied by an inherent risk to the surrounding ecosystems as a result of ongoing operations or technical faults, accidents, or geo-hazards. Limited research has been conducted on the potential impact of fossil fuel pollution on the Mediterranean marine ecosystem due to the lack of information on organism responses to hydrocarbon pollution. In this study, we utilized the OpenOil model to simulate deep-water pollution events and Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE) food-web models of the Israeli coastal region to evaluate and quantify the possible ecological impacts of pollution events that might occur due to fossil fuel exploitation-related activities. The models included local organism response curves to various contaminant levels, such as crude oil and condensate, in the water column and on the sea floor sediments. We further included deep uncertainty tools to introduce uncertainty associated with the scenarios, EwE model parameters, and functions. The results highlighted the spatial and temporal extent of the impact on the food web. In addition, by applying the deep uncertainty approach, we evaluated the impact on food-web functioning and projected possible outcomes of pollution events of varying intensities. The results of this study provide a quantitative assessment of the expected ecological impacts, which could assist decision-makers in developing management and conservation strategies.
2025
Journal Articles
10.
Angelini, Ronaldo; Lima, Maria Alice Leite; Lira, Alex Souza; Lucena-Frédou, Flávia; Frédou, Thierry; Bertrand, Arnaud; Giarrizzo, Tommaso; Steenbeek, Jeroen; Coll, Marta; Keppeler, Friedrich Wolfgang
The projected impacts of climate change and fishing pressure on a tropical marine food web Journal Article
In: Marine Environmental Research, vol. 204, pp. 106909, 2025, ISSN: 01411136.
@article{angelini_projected_2025,
title = {The projected impacts of climate change and fishing pressure on a tropical marine food web},
author = {Ronaldo Angelini and Maria Alice Leite Lima and Alex Souza Lira and Fl\'{a}via Lucena-Fr\'{e}dou and Thierry Fr\'{e}dou and Arnaud Bertrand and Tommaso Giarrizzo and Jeroen Steenbeek and Marta Coll and Friedrich Wolfgang Keppeler},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0141113624005701},
doi = {10.1016/j.marenvres.2024.106909},
issn = {01411136},
year = {2025},
date = {2025-02-01},
urldate = {2025-10-20},
journal = {Marine Environmental Research},
volume = {204},
pages = {106909},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
11.
Murphy, Kieran; Fierro-Arcos, Denisse; Rohr, Tyler; Green, David; Novaglio, Camilla; Baker, Katherine; Ortega-Cisneros, Kelly; Eddy, Tyler D.; Harrison, Cheryl S.; Hill, Simeon L.; Eskuche-Keith, Patrick; Cataldo-Mendez, Camila; Petrik, Colleen M.; Pinkerton, Matthew; Spence, Paul; Stollberg, Ilaria; Subramaniam, Roshni C.; Trebilco, Rowan; Tulloch, Vivitskaia; Palacios-Abrantes, Juliano; Bestley, Sophie; Bianchi, Daniele; Boyd, Philip; Buchanan, Pearse J.; Bryndum-Buchholz, Andrea; Coll, Marta; Corney, Stuart; Datta, Samik; Everett, Jason D.; Forestier, Romain; Fulton, Elizabeth A.; de Luzinais, Vianney Guibourd; Heneghan, Ryan; Mason, Julia G.; Maury, Olivier; McMahon, Clive R.; Murphy, Eugene; Richardson, Anthony J.; Tittensor, Derek P.; Spillias, Scott; Steenbeek, Jeroen; Veytia, Devi; Blanchard, Julia
Developing a Southern Ocean Marine Ecosystem Model Ensemble to Assess Climate Risks and Uncertainties Journal Article
In: Earth's Future, vol. 13, no. 3, pp. e2024EF004849, 2025, ISSN: 2328-4277, (_eprint: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/2024EF004849).
Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags:
@article{murphy_developing_2025,
title = {Developing a Southern Ocean Marine Ecosystem Model Ensemble to Assess Climate Risks and Uncertainties},
author = {Kieran Murphy and Denisse Fierro-Arcos and Tyler Rohr and David Green and Camilla Novaglio and Katherine Baker and Kelly Ortega-Cisneros and Tyler D. Eddy and Cheryl S. Harrison and Simeon L. Hill and Patrick Eskuche-Keith and Camila Cataldo-Mendez and Colleen M. Petrik and Matthew Pinkerton and Paul Spence and Ilaria Stollberg and Roshni C. Subramaniam and Rowan Trebilco and Vivitskaia Tulloch and Juliano Palacios-Abrantes and Sophie Bestley and Daniele Bianchi and Philip Boyd and Pearse J. Buchanan and Andrea Bryndum-Buchholz and Marta Coll and Stuart Corney and Samik Datta and Jason D. Everett and Romain Forestier and Elizabeth A. Fulton and Vianney Guibourd de Luzinais and Ryan Heneghan and Julia G. Mason and Olivier Maury and Clive R. McMahon and Eugene Murphy and Anthony J. Richardson and Derek P. Tittensor and Scott Spillias and Jeroen Steenbeek and Devi Veytia and Julia Blanchard},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2024EF004849},
doi = {10.1029/2024EF004849},
issn = {2328-4277},
year = {2025},
date = {2025-01-01},
urldate = {2026-02-05},
journal = {Earth's Future},
volume = {13},
number = {3},
pages = {e2024EF004849},
abstract = {Climate change could irreversibly modify Southern Ocean ecosystems. Marine ecosystem model (MEM) ensembles can assist policy making by projecting future changes and allowing the evaluation and assessment of alternative management approaches. However, projected changes in total consumer biomass from the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (FishMIP) global MEM ensemble highlight an uncertain future for the Southern Ocean, indicating the need for a region-specific ensemble. A large source of model uncertainty originates from the Earth system models used to force FishMIP models, particularly future changes to lower trophic level biomass and sea-ice coverage. To build confidence in regional MEMs as ecosystem-based management tools in a changing climate that can better account for uncertainty, we propose the development of a Southern Ocean Marine Ecosystem Model Ensemble (SOMEME) contributing to the FishMIP 2.0 regional model intercomparison initiative. One of the challenges hampering progress of regional MEM ensembles is achieving the balance of global standardised inputs with regional relevance. As a first step, we design a SOMEME simulation protocol, that builds on and extends the existing FishMIP framework, in stages that include: detailed skill assessment of climate forcing variables for Southern Ocean regions, extension of fishing forcing data to include whaling, and new simulations that assess ecological links to sea-ice processes in an ensemble of candidate regional MEMs. These extensions will help advance assessments of urgently needed climate change impacts on Southern Ocean ecosystems.},
note = {_eprint: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/2024EF004849},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Climate change could irreversibly modify Southern Ocean ecosystems. Marine ecosystem model (MEM) ensembles can assist policy making by projecting future changes and allowing the evaluation and assessment of alternative management approaches. However, projected changes in total consumer biomass from the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (FishMIP) global MEM ensemble highlight an uncertain future for the Southern Ocean, indicating the need for a region-specific ensemble. A large source of model uncertainty originates from the Earth system models used to force FishMIP models, particularly future changes to lower trophic level biomass and sea-ice coverage. To build confidence in regional MEMs as ecosystem-based management tools in a changing climate that can better account for uncertainty, we propose the development of a Southern Ocean Marine Ecosystem Model Ensemble (SOMEME) contributing to the FishMIP 2.0 regional model intercomparison initiative. One of the challenges hampering progress of regional MEM ensembles is achieving the balance of global standardised inputs with regional relevance. As a first step, we design a SOMEME simulation protocol, that builds on and extends the existing FishMIP framework, in stages that include: detailed skill assessment of climate forcing variables for Southern Ocean regions, extension of fishing forcing data to include whaling, and new simulations that assess ecological links to sea-ice processes in an ensemble of candidate regional MEMs. These extensions will help advance assessments of urgently needed climate change impacts on Southern Ocean ecosystems.
12.
Eddy, Tyler D.; Heneghan, Ryan F.; Bryndum-Buchholz, Andrea; Fulton, Elizabeth A.; Harrison, Cheryl S.; Tittensor, Derek P.; Lotze, Heike K.; Ortega-Cisneros, Kelly; Novaglio, Camilla; Bianchi, Daniele; Büchner, Matthias; Bulman, Catherine; Cheung, William W. L.; Christensen, Villy; Coll, Marta; Everett, Jason D.; Fierro-Arcos, Denisse; Galbraith, Eric D.; Gascuel, Didier; Guiet, Jerome; Mackinson, Steve; Maury, Olivier; Niiranen, Susa; Oliveros-Ramos, Ricardo; Palacios-Abrantes, Juliano; Piroddi, Chiara; Pontavice, Hubert; Reum, Jonathan; Richardson, Anthony J.; Schewe, Jacob; Shannon, Lynne; Shin, Yunne-Jai; Steenbeek, Jeroen; Volkholz, Jan; Walker, Nicola D.; Woodworth-Jefcoats, Phoebe; Blanchard, Julia L.
Global and Regional Marine Ecosystem Models Reveal Key Uncertainties in Climate Change Projections Journal Article
In: Earth's Future, vol. 13, no. 3, pp. e2024EF005537, 2025, ISSN: 2328-4277, (_eprint: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/2024EF005537).
Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags: fisheries, fisheries and marine ecosystem model intercomparison project (FishMIP), inter-sectoral impact model intercomparison project (ISIMIP), model ensemble, model intercomparison project (MIP)
@article{eddy_global_2025,
title = {Global and Regional Marine Ecosystem Models Reveal Key Uncertainties in Climate Change Projections},
author = {Tyler D. Eddy and Ryan F. Heneghan and Andrea Bryndum-Buchholz and Elizabeth A. Fulton and Cheryl S. Harrison and Derek P. Tittensor and Heike K. Lotze and Kelly Ortega-Cisneros and Camilla Novaglio and Daniele Bianchi and Matthias B\"{u}chner and Catherine Bulman and William W. L. Cheung and Villy Christensen and Marta Coll and Jason D. Everett and Denisse Fierro-Arcos and Eric D. Galbraith and Didier Gascuel and Jerome Guiet and Steve Mackinson and Olivier Maury and Susa Niiranen and Ricardo Oliveros-Ramos and Juliano Palacios-Abrantes and Chiara Piroddi and Hubert Pontavice and Jonathan Reum and Anthony J. Richardson and Jacob Schewe and Lynne Shannon and Yunne-Jai Shin and Jeroen Steenbeek and Jan Volkholz and Nicola D. Walker and Phoebe Woodworth-Jefcoats and Julia L. Blanchard},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2024EF005537},
doi = {10.1029/2024EF005537},
issn = {2328-4277},
year = {2025},
date = {2025-01-01},
urldate = {2026-02-05},
journal = {Earth's Future},
volume = {13},
number = {3},
pages = {e2024EF005537},
abstract = {Climate change is affecting ocean temperature, acidity, currents, and primary production, causing shifts in species distributions, marine ecosystems, and ultimately fisheries. Earth system models simulate climate change impacts on physical and biogeochemical properties of future oceans under varying emissions scenarios. Coupling these simulations with an ensemble of global marine ecosystem models has indicated broad decreases of fish biomass with warming. However, regional details of these impacts remain much more uncertain. Here, we employ CMIP5 and CMIP6 climate change impact projections using two Earth system models coupled with four regional and nine global marine ecosystem models in 10 ocean regions to evaluate model agreement at regional scales. We find that models developed at different scales can lead to stark differences in biomass projections. On average, global models projected greater biomass declines by the end of the 21st century than regional models. For both global and regional models, greater biomass declines were projected using CMIP6 than CMIP5 simulations. Global models projected biomass declines in 86% of CMIP5 simulations for ocean regions compared to 50% for regional models in the same ocean regions. In CMIP6 simulations, all global model simulations projected biomass declines in ocean regions by 2100, while regional models projected biomass declines in 67% of the ocean region simulations. Our analysis suggests that improved understanding of the causes of differences between global and regional marine ecosystem model climate change projections is needed, alongside observational evaluation of modeled responses.},
note = {_eprint: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/2024EF005537},
keywords = {fisheries, fisheries and marine ecosystem model intercomparison project (FishMIP), inter-sectoral impact model intercomparison project (ISIMIP), model ensemble, model intercomparison project (MIP)},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Climate change is affecting ocean temperature, acidity, currents, and primary production, causing shifts in species distributions, marine ecosystems, and ultimately fisheries. Earth system models simulate climate change impacts on physical and biogeochemical properties of future oceans under varying emissions scenarios. Coupling these simulations with an ensemble of global marine ecosystem models has indicated broad decreases of fish biomass with warming. However, regional details of these impacts remain much more uncertain. Here, we employ CMIP5 and CMIP6 climate change impact projections using two Earth system models coupled with four regional and nine global marine ecosystem models in 10 ocean regions to evaluate model agreement at regional scales. We find that models developed at different scales can lead to stark differences in biomass projections. On average, global models projected greater biomass declines by the end of the 21st century than regional models. For both global and regional models, greater biomass declines were projected using CMIP6 than CMIP5 simulations. Global models projected biomass declines in 86% of CMIP5 simulations for ocean regions compared to 50% for regional models in the same ocean regions. In CMIP6 simulations, all global model simulations projected biomass declines in ocean regions by 2100, while regional models projected biomass declines in 67% of the ocean region simulations. Our analysis suggests that improved understanding of the causes of differences between global and regional marine ecosystem model climate change projections is needed, alongside observational evaluation of modeled responses.
13.
Boot, A. A.; Steenbeek, J.; Coll, M.; Heydt, A. S.; Dijkstra, H. A.
Global Marine Ecosystem Response to a Strong AMOC Weakening Under Low and High Future Emission Scenarios Journal Article
In: Earth's Future, vol. 13, no. 1, pp. e2024EF004741, 2025, ISSN: 2328-4277, (_eprint: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/2024EF004741).
Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags: Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, Climate Change, Earth system modeling, marine ecosystem modeling, Marine Ecosystems, tipping points
@article{boot_global_2025,
title = {Global Marine Ecosystem Response to a Strong AMOC Weakening Under Low and High Future Emission Scenarios},
author = {A. A. Boot and J. Steenbeek and M. Coll and A. S. Heydt and H. A. Dijkstra},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2024EF004741},
doi = {10.1029/2024EF004741},
issn = {2328-4277},
year = {2025},
date = {2025-01-01},
urldate = {2025-01-01},
journal = {Earth\'s Future},
volume = {13},
number = {1},
pages = {e2024EF004741},
abstract = {Marine ecosystems provide essential services to the Earth System and society. These ecosystems are threatened by anthropogenic activities and climate change. Climate change increases the risk of passing tipping points; for example, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) might tip under future global warming leading to additional changes in the climate system. Here, we look at the effect of an AMOC weakening on marine ecosystems by forcing the Community Earth System Model v2 (CESM2) with low (SSP1-2.6) and high (SSP5-8.5) emission scenarios from 2015 to 2100. An additional freshwater flux is added in the North Atlantic to induce an extra weakening of the AMOC. In CESM2, the AMOC weakening has a large impact on phytoplankton biomass and temperature fields through various mechanisms that change the supply of nutrients to the surface ocean. We drive a marine ecosystem model, EcoOcean, with phytoplankton biomass and temperature fields from CESM2. In EcoOcean, we see negative impacts in Total System Biomass (TSB), which are larger for high trophic level organisms. On top of anthropogenic climate change, TSB decreases by −3.78 textbackslash%textbackslash and −2.03 textbackslash%textbackslash in SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5, respectively due to the AMOC weakening. However, regionally and for individual groups, the decrease can be as large as −30 textbackslash%textbackslash, showing that an AMOC weakening can be very detrimental for local ecosystems. These results show that marine ecosystems will be under increased threat if the AMOC weakens which might put additional stresses on socio-economic systems that are dependent on marine biodiversity as a food and income source.},
note = {_eprint: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/2024EF004741},
keywords = {Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, Climate Change, Earth system modeling, marine ecosystem modeling, Marine Ecosystems, tipping points},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Marine ecosystems provide essential services to the Earth System and society. These ecosystems are threatened by anthropogenic activities and climate change. Climate change increases the risk of passing tipping points; for example, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) might tip under future global warming leading to additional changes in the climate system. Here, we look at the effect of an AMOC weakening on marine ecosystems by forcing the Community Earth System Model v2 (CESM2) with low (SSP1-2.6) and high (SSP5-8.5) emission scenarios from 2015 to 2100. An additional freshwater flux is added in the North Atlantic to induce an extra weakening of the AMOC. In CESM2, the AMOC weakening has a large impact on phytoplankton biomass and temperature fields through various mechanisms that change the supply of nutrients to the surface ocean. We drive a marine ecosystem model, EcoOcean, with phytoplankton biomass and temperature fields from CESM2. In EcoOcean, we see negative impacts in Total System Biomass (TSB), which are larger for high trophic level organisms. On top of anthropogenic climate change, TSB decreases by −3.78 textbackslash%textbackslash and −2.03 textbackslash%textbackslash in SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5, respectively due to the AMOC weakening. However, regionally and for individual groups, the decrease can be as large as −30 textbackslash%textbackslash, showing that an AMOC weakening can be very detrimental for local ecosystems. These results show that marine ecosystems will be under increased threat if the AMOC weakens which might put additional stresses on socio-economic systems that are dependent on marine biodiversity as a food and income source.
14.
Roberts, Kelsey E.; Rohr, Tyler; Raven, Morgan R.; Diamond, Michael S.; Visioni, Daniele; Kravitz, Ben; Heneghan, Ryan; Petrik, Colleen M.; Bianchi, Daniele; Cisneros, Kelly Ortega-
Potential impacts of climate interventions on marine ecosystems Journal Article
In: 2025.
@article{roberts_potential_2025,
title = {Potential impacts of climate interventions on marine ecosystems},
author = {Kelsey E. Roberts and Tyler Rohr and Morgan R. Raven and Michael S. Diamond and Daniele Visioni and Ben Kravitz and Ryan Heneghan and Colleen M. Petrik and Daniele Bianchi and Kelly Ortega- Cisneros},
url = {https://essopenarchive.org/doi/abs/10.22541/essoar.176401886.60047293},
year = {2025},
date = {2025-01-01},
urldate = {2026-07-15},
publisher = {ESS Open Archive},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
15.
Fuster-Alonso, Alba; Mestre-Tomás, Jorge; Baez, Jose Carlos; Pennino, Maria Grazia; Barber, Xavier; Bellido, Jose María; Conesa, David; López-Quílez, Antonio; Steenbeek, Jeroen; Christensen, Villy
Machine learning applied to global scale species distribution models Journal Article
In: Scientific Reports, vol. 15, no. 1, pp. 37534, 2025.
@article{fuster-alonso_machine_2025,
title = {Machine learning applied to global scale species distribution models},
author = {Alba Fuster-Alonso and Jorge Mestre-Tom\'{a}s and Jose Carlos Baez and Maria Grazia Pennino and Xavier Barber and Jose Mar\'{i}a Bellido and David Conesa and Antonio L\'{o}pez-Qu\'{i}lez and Jeroen Steenbeek and Villy Christensen},
url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-025-20797-x},
year = {2025},
date = {2025-01-01},
urldate = {2026-07-15},
journal = {Scientific Reports},
volume = {15},
number = {1},
pages = {37534},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group UK London},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
16.
Daskalov, Georgi M.; Puente, Santiago; Scotti, Marco; Klayn, Stefania; Briguglio, Marie; Coro, Gianpaolo; Gal, Gideon; Heymans, Johanna J.; Rodriguez-Perez, Ana; Steenbeek, Jeroen Gerhard
Managing fisheries and ecosystems: current good practices and the EcoScope project experience Journal Article
In: Frontiers in Marine Science, vol. 12, pp. 1640487, 2025.
@article{daskalov_managing_2025,
title = {Managing fisheries and ecosystems: current good practices and the EcoScope project experience},
author = {Georgi M. Daskalov and Santiago Puente and Marco Scotti and Stefania Klayn and Marie Briguglio and Gianpaolo Coro and Gideon Gal and Johanna J. Heymans and Ana Rodriguez-Perez and Jeroen Gerhard Steenbeek},
url = {https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/marine-science/articles/10.3389/fmars.2025.1640487/full},
year = {2025},
date = {2025-01-01},
urldate = {2026-07-15},
journal = {Frontiers in Marine Science},
volume = {12},
pages = {1640487},
publisher = {Frontiers Media SA},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Technical Reports
17.
Coll, Marta; Lynam, Christopher; Bas, Maria; Corrales, Xavier; Ortega-Cerdà, Miquel; Puntila-Dodd, Riikka; Steenbeek, Jeroen; Szalaj, Dorota; Tomczak, Maciej T.
Copernicus Meetings 2025.
@techreport{coll_effectiveness_2025,
title = {Effectiveness of combined management interventions in European Seas to face cumulative impact of multiple human activities and climate change trajectories},
author = {Marta Coll and Christopher Lynam and Maria Bas and Xavier Corrales and Miquel Ortega-Cerd\`{a} and Riikka Puntila-Dodd and Jeroen Steenbeek and Dorota Szalaj and Maciej T. Tomczak},
url = {https://meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/OOS2025/OOS2025-1480.html},
year = {2025},
date = {2025-01-01},
urldate = {2026-07-15},
institution = {Copernicus Meetings},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {techreport}
}
2024
Journal Articles
18.
Blanchard, Julia L.; Novaglio, Camilla; Maury, Olivier; Harrison, Cheryl S.; Petrik, Colleen M.; Fierro‐Arcos, Denisse; Ortega‐Cisneros, Kelly; Bryndum‐Buchholz, Andrea; Eddy, Tyler D.; Heneghan, Ryan; Roberts, Kelsey; Schewe, Jacob; Bianchi, Daniele; Guiet, Jerome; Denderen, P. Daniel Van; Palacios‐Abrantes, Juliano; Liu, Xiao; Stock, Charles A.; Rousseau, Yannick; Büchner, Matthias; Adekoya, Ezekiel O.; Bulman, Cathy; Cheung, William; Christensen, Villy; Coll, Marta; Capitani, Leonardo; Datta, Samik; Fulton, Elizabeth A.; Fuster, Alba; Garza, Victoria; Lengaigne, Matthieu; Lindmark, Max; Murphy, Kieran; Ouled‐Cheikh, Jazel; Prasad, Sowdamini S.; Oliveros‐Ramos, Ricardo; Reum, Jonathan C.; Rynne, Nina; Scherrer, Kim J. N.; Shin, Yunne‐Jai; Steenbeek, Jeroen; Woodworth‐Jefcoats, Phoebe; Wu, Yan‐Lun; Tittensor, Derek P.
Detecting, Attributing, and Projecting Global Marine Ecosystem and Fisheries Change: FishMIP 2.0 Journal Article
In: Earth's Future, vol. 12, no. 12, pp. e2023EF004402, 2024, ISSN: 2328-4277, 2328-4277.
Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags: EcoOcean, FishMIP
@article{blanchard_detecting_2024,
title = {Detecting, Attributing, and Projecting Global Marine Ecosystem and Fisheries Change: FishMIP 2.0},
author = {Julia L. Blanchard and Camilla Novaglio and Olivier Maury and Cheryl S. Harrison and Colleen M. Petrik and Denisse Fierro‐Arcos and Kelly Ortega‐Cisneros and Andrea Bryndum‐Buchholz and Tyler D. Eddy and Ryan Heneghan and Kelsey Roberts and Jacob Schewe and Daniele Bianchi and Jerome Guiet and P. Daniel Van Denderen and Juliano Palacios‐Abrantes and Xiao Liu and Charles A. Stock and Yannick Rousseau and Matthias B\"{u}chner and Ezekiel O. Adekoya and Cathy Bulman and William Cheung and Villy Christensen and Marta Coll and Leonardo Capitani and Samik Datta and Elizabeth A. Fulton and Alba Fuster and Victoria Garza and Matthieu Lengaigne and Max Lindmark and Kieran Murphy and Jazel Ouled‐Cheikh and Sowdamini S. Prasad and Ricardo Oliveros‐Ramos and Jonathan C. Reum and Nina Rynne and Kim J. N. Scherrer and Yunne‐Jai Shin and Jeroen Steenbeek and Phoebe Woodworth‐Jefcoats and Yan‐Lun Wu and Derek P. Tittensor},
url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2023EF004402},
doi = {10.1029/2023EF004402},
issn = {2328-4277, 2328-4277},
year = {2024},
date = {2024-12-01},
urldate = {2025-01-08},
journal = {Earth's Future},
volume = {12},
number = {12},
pages = {e2023EF004402},
abstract = {Abstract
There is an urgent need for models that can robustly detect past and project future ecosystem changes and risks to the services that they provide to people. The Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (FishMIP) was established to develop model ensembles for projecting long‐term impacts of climate change on fisheries and marine ecosystems while informing policy at spatio‐temporal scales relevant to the Inter‐Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) framework. While contributing FishMIP models have improved over time, large uncertainties in projections remain, particularly in coastal and shelf seas where most of the world's fisheries occur. Furthermore, previous FishMIP climate impact projections have been limited by a lack of global standardized historical fishing data, low resolution of coastal processes, and uneven capabilities across the FishMIP community to dynamically model fisheries. These features are needed to evaluate how reliably the FishMIP ensemble captures past ecosystem states ‐ a crucial step for building confidence in future projections. To address these issues, we have developed FishMIP 2.0 comprising a two‐track framework for: (a) Model evaluation and attribution of past changes and (b) future climate and socioeconomic scenario projections. Key advances include improved historical climate forcing, which captures oceanographic features not previously resolved, and standardized global fishing forcing to test fishing effects systematically across models. FishMIP 2.0 is a crucial step toward a detection and attribution framework for changing marine ecosystems and toward enhanced policy relevance through increased confidence in future ensemble projections. Our results will help elucidate pathways toward achieving sustainable development goals.
,
Plain Language Summary
Historically, the largest human impact on the ocean has been overfishing. In the future, it may become climate change. To understand and predict how human activities will affect marine ecosystems in the future, we need models that can be used to accurately detect and attribute the effects of drivers and their impact on past ecosystem trajectories. By doing this, we will build confidence in the ability of sets of these models (“ensembles”) to capture future change. FishMIP 2.0 provides a way to construct and test these ensembles and scenarios of both changing climate and socio‐economic conditions, to better assess how future fisheries could adapt over time.
,
Key Points
Detecting, attributing, and projecting climate change risks on marine ecosystems and fisheries requires models with realistic dynamics
FishMIP 2.0 incorporates fishing and climate impact trajectories to assess models and detect past ecosystem changes more accurately
Our framework will help support model improvement, building confidence in future projections to underpin policy advice},
keywords = {EcoOcean, FishMIP},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Abstract
There is an urgent need for models that can robustly detect past and project future ecosystem changes and risks to the services that they provide to people. The Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (FishMIP) was established to develop model ensembles for projecting long‐term impacts of climate change on fisheries and marine ecosystems while informing policy at spatio‐temporal scales relevant to the Inter‐Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) framework. While contributing FishMIP models have improved over time, large uncertainties in projections remain, particularly in coastal and shelf seas where most of the world's fisheries occur. Furthermore, previous FishMIP climate impact projections have been limited by a lack of global standardized historical fishing data, low resolution of coastal processes, and uneven capabilities across the FishMIP community to dynamically model fisheries. These features are needed to evaluate how reliably the FishMIP ensemble captures past ecosystem states ‐ a crucial step for building confidence in future projections. To address these issues, we have developed FishMIP 2.0 comprising a two‐track framework for: (a) Model evaluation and attribution of past changes and (b) future climate and socioeconomic scenario projections. Key advances include improved historical climate forcing, which captures oceanographic features not previously resolved, and standardized global fishing forcing to test fishing effects systematically across models. FishMIP 2.0 is a crucial step toward a detection and attribution framework for changing marine ecosystems and toward enhanced policy relevance through increased confidence in future ensemble projections. Our results will help elucidate pathways toward achieving sustainable development goals.
,
Plain Language Summary
Historically, the largest human impact on the ocean has been overfishing. In the future, it may become climate change. To understand and predict how human activities will affect marine ecosystems in the future, we need models that can be used to accurately detect and attribute the effects of drivers and their impact on past ecosystem trajectories. By doing this, we will build confidence in the ability of sets of these models (“ensembles”) to capture future change. FishMIP 2.0 provides a way to construct and test these ensembles and scenarios of both changing climate and socio‐economic conditions, to better assess how future fisheries could adapt over time.
,
Key Points
Detecting, attributing, and projecting climate change risks on marine ecosystems and fisheries requires models with realistic dynamics
FishMIP 2.0 incorporates fishing and climate impact trajectories to assess models and detect past ecosystem changes more accurately
Our framework will help support model improvement, building confidence in future projections to underpin policy advice
There is an urgent need for models that can robustly detect past and project future ecosystem changes and risks to the services that they provide to people. The Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (FishMIP) was established to develop model ensembles for projecting long‐term impacts of climate change on fisheries and marine ecosystems while informing policy at spatio‐temporal scales relevant to the Inter‐Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) framework. While contributing FishMIP models have improved over time, large uncertainties in projections remain, particularly in coastal and shelf seas where most of the world's fisheries occur. Furthermore, previous FishMIP climate impact projections have been limited by a lack of global standardized historical fishing data, low resolution of coastal processes, and uneven capabilities across the FishMIP community to dynamically model fisheries. These features are needed to evaluate how reliably the FishMIP ensemble captures past ecosystem states ‐ a crucial step for building confidence in future projections. To address these issues, we have developed FishMIP 2.0 comprising a two‐track framework for: (a) Model evaluation and attribution of past changes and (b) future climate and socioeconomic scenario projections. Key advances include improved historical climate forcing, which captures oceanographic features not previously resolved, and standardized global fishing forcing to test fishing effects systematically across models. FishMIP 2.0 is a crucial step toward a detection and attribution framework for changing marine ecosystems and toward enhanced policy relevance through increased confidence in future ensemble projections. Our results will help elucidate pathways toward achieving sustainable development goals.
,
Plain Language Summary
Historically, the largest human impact on the ocean has been overfishing. In the future, it may become climate change. To understand and predict how human activities will affect marine ecosystems in the future, we need models that can be used to accurately detect and attribute the effects of drivers and their impact on past ecosystem trajectories. By doing this, we will build confidence in the ability of sets of these models (“ensembles”) to capture future change. FishMIP 2.0 provides a way to construct and test these ensembles and scenarios of both changing climate and socio‐economic conditions, to better assess how future fisheries could adapt over time.
,
Key Points
Detecting, attributing, and projecting climate change risks on marine ecosystems and fisheries requires models with realistic dynamics
FishMIP 2.0 incorporates fishing and climate impact trajectories to assess models and detect past ecosystem changes more accurately
Our framework will help support model improvement, building confidence in future projections to underpin policy advice
19.
Boot, Amber Adore; Steenbeek, Jeroen Gerhard; Coll, Marta; Heydt, Anna S. Von Der; Dijkstra, Henk A.
Global Marine Ecosystem Response to a Strong AMOC Weakening under Low and High Future Emission Scenarios Journal Article
In: Authorea Preprints, 2024.
Links | BibTeX | Tags: EcoOcean
@article{bootGlobalMarineEcosystem2024,
title = {Global Marine Ecosystem Response to a Strong AMOC Weakening under Low and High Future Emission Scenarios},
author = {Amber Adore Boot and Jeroen Gerhard Steenbeek and Marta Coll and Anna S. Von Der Heydt and Henk A. Dijkstra},
doi = {10.22541/essoar.171319366.64840276/v1},
year = {2024},
date = {2024-04-01},
urldate = {2024-04-01},
journal = {Authorea Preprints},
keywords = {EcoOcean},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
20.
Steenbeek, Jeroen; Ortega, Pablo; Bernardello, Raffaele; Christensen, Villy; Coll, Marta; Exarchou, Eleftheria; Fuster‐Alonso, Alba; Heneghan, Ryan; Melis, Laura Julià; Pennino, Maria Grazia; Rivas, David; Keenlyside, Noel
In: Earth's Future, vol. 12, no. 3, pp. e2023EF004295, 2024, ISSN: 2328-4277, (_eprint: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/2023EF004295).
Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags: distributed execution, MacGyver, marine ecosystem models, open-source software, systematic assessments
@article{steenbeek_making_2024,
title = {Making Ecosystem Modeling Operational\textendashA Novel Distributed Execution Framework to Systematically Explore Ecological Responses to Divergent Climate Trajectories},
author = {Jeroen Steenbeek and Pablo Ortega and Raffaele Bernardello and Villy Christensen and Marta Coll and Eleftheria Exarchou and Alba Fuster‐Alonso and Ryan Heneghan and Laura Juli\`{a} Melis and Maria Grazia Pennino and David Rivas and Noel Keenlyside},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2023EF004295},
doi = {10.1029/2023EF004295},
issn = {2328-4277},
year = {2024},
date = {2024-03-01},
urldate = {2024-03-09},
journal = {Earth's Future},
volume = {12},
number = {3},
pages = {e2023EF004295},
abstract = {Marine Ecosystem Models (MEMs) are increasingly driven by Earth System Models (ESMs) to better understand marine ecosystem dynamics, and to analyze the effects of alternative management efforts for marine ecosystems under potential scenarios of climate change. However, policy and commercial activities typically occur on seasonal-to-decadal time scales, a time span widely used in the global climate modeling community but where the skill level assessments of MEMs are in their infancy. This is mostly due to technical hurdles that prevent the global MEM community from performing large ensemble simulations with which to undergo systematic skill assessments. Here, we developed a novel distributed execution framework constructed of low-tech and freely available technologies to enable the systematic execution and analysis of linked ESM/MEM prediction ensembles. We apply this framework on the seasonal-to-decadal time scale, and assess how retrospective forecast uncertainty in an ensemble of initialized decadal ESM predictions affects a mechanistic and spatiotemporal explicit global trophodynamic MEM. Our results indicate that ESM internal variability has a relatively low impact on the MEM variability in comparison to the broad assumptions related to reconstructed fisheries. We also observe that the results are also sensitive to the ESM specificities. Our case study warrants further systematic explorations to disentangle the impacts of climate change, fisheries scenarios, MEM internal ecological hypotheses, and ESM variability. Most importantly, our case study demonstrates that a simple and free distributed execution framework has the potential to empower any modeling group with the fundamental capabilities to operationalize marine ecosystem modeling.},
note = {_eprint: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/2023EF004295},
keywords = {distributed execution, MacGyver, marine ecosystem models, open-source software, systematic assessments},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Marine Ecosystem Models (MEMs) are increasingly driven by Earth System Models (ESMs) to better understand marine ecosystem dynamics, and to analyze the effects of alternative management efforts for marine ecosystems under potential scenarios of climate change. However, policy and commercial activities typically occur on seasonal-to-decadal time scales, a time span widely used in the global climate modeling community but where the skill level assessments of MEMs are in their infancy. This is mostly due to technical hurdles that prevent the global MEM community from performing large ensemble simulations with which to undergo systematic skill assessments. Here, we developed a novel distributed execution framework constructed of low-tech and freely available technologies to enable the systematic execution and analysis of linked ESM/MEM prediction ensembles. We apply this framework on the seasonal-to-decadal time scale, and assess how retrospective forecast uncertainty in an ensemble of initialized decadal ESM predictions affects a mechanistic and spatiotemporal explicit global trophodynamic MEM. Our results indicate that ESM internal variability has a relatively low impact on the MEM variability in comparison to the broad assumptions related to reconstructed fisheries. We also observe that the results are also sensitive to the ESM specificities. Our case study warrants further systematic explorations to disentangle the impacts of climate change, fisheries scenarios, MEM internal ecological hypotheses, and ESM variability. Most importantly, our case study demonstrates that a simple and free distributed execution framework has the potential to empower any modeling group with the fundamental capabilities to operationalize marine ecosystem modeling.
21.
Steenbeek, Jeroen; Ortega, Pablo; Bernardello, Raffaele; Christensen, Villy; Coll, Marta; Exarchou, Eleftheria; Fuster-Alonso, Alba; Heneghan, Ryan; Melis, Laura Julià; Pennino, Maria Grazia; Rivas, David; Keenlyside, Noel
In: Earth's Future, vol. 12, no. 3, pp. e2023EF004295, 2024, ISSN: 2328-4277.
Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags: distributed execution, EcoOcean, MacGyver, marine ecosystem models, open-source software, systematic assessments
@article{steenbeekMakingEcosystemModeling2024,
title = {Making Ecosystem Modeling Operational \textendash a Novel Distributed Execution Framework to Systematically Explore Ecological Responses to Divergent Climate Trajectories},
author = {Jeroen Steenbeek and Pablo Ortega and Raffaele Bernardello and Villy Christensen and Marta Coll and Eleftheria Exarchou and Alba Fuster-Alonso and Ryan Heneghan and Laura Juli\`{a} Melis and Maria Grazia Pennino and David Rivas and Noel Keenlyside},
doi = {10.1029/2023EF004295},
issn = {2328-4277},
year = {2024},
date = {2024-01-01},
urldate = {2024-01-01},
journal = {Earth's Future},
volume = {12},
number = {3},
pages = {e2023EF004295},
abstract = {Marine Ecosystem Models (MEMs) are increasingly driven by Earth System Models (ESMs) to better understand marine ecosystem dynamics, and to analyze the effects of alternative management efforts for marine ecosystems under potential scenarios of climate change. However, policy and commercial activities typically occur on seasonal-to-decadal time scales, a time span widely used in the global climate modeling community but where the skill level assessments of MEMs are in their infancy. This is mostly due to technical hurdles that prevent the global MEM community from performing large ensemble simulations with which to undergo systematic skill assessments. Here, we developed a novel distributed execution framework constructed of low-tech and freely available technologies to enable the systematic execution and analysis of linked ESM/MEM prediction ensembles. We apply this framework on the seasonal-to-decadal time scale, and assess how retrospective forecast uncertainty in an ensemble of initialized decadal ESM predictions affects a mechanistic and spatiotemporal explicit global trophodynamic MEM. Our results indicate that ESM internal variability has a relatively low impact on the MEM variability in comparison to the broad assumptions related to reconstructed fisheries. We also observe that the results are also sensitive to the ESM specificities. Our case study warrants further systematic explorations to disentangle the impacts of climate change, fisheries scenarios, MEM internal ecological hypotheses, and ESM variability. Most importantly, our case study demonstrates that a simple and free distributed execution framework has the potential to empower any modeling group with the fundamental capabilities to operationalize marine ecosystem modeling.},
keywords = {distributed execution, EcoOcean, MacGyver, marine ecosystem models, open-source software, systematic assessments},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Marine Ecosystem Models (MEMs) are increasingly driven by Earth System Models (ESMs) to better understand marine ecosystem dynamics, and to analyze the effects of alternative management efforts for marine ecosystems under potential scenarios of climate change. However, policy and commercial activities typically occur on seasonal-to-decadal time scales, a time span widely used in the global climate modeling community but where the skill level assessments of MEMs are in their infancy. This is mostly due to technical hurdles that prevent the global MEM community from performing large ensemble simulations with which to undergo systematic skill assessments. Here, we developed a novel distributed execution framework constructed of low-tech and freely available technologies to enable the systematic execution and analysis of linked ESM/MEM prediction ensembles. We apply this framework on the seasonal-to-decadal time scale, and assess how retrospective forecast uncertainty in an ensemble of initialized decadal ESM predictions affects a mechanistic and spatiotemporal explicit global trophodynamic MEM. Our results indicate that ESM internal variability has a relatively low impact on the MEM variability in comparison to the broad assumptions related to reconstructed fisheries. We also observe that the results are also sensitive to the ESM specificities. Our case study warrants further systematic explorations to disentangle the impacts of climate change, fisheries scenarios, MEM internal ecological hypotheses, and ESM variability. Most importantly, our case study demonstrates that a simple and free distributed execution framework has the potential to empower any modeling group with the fundamental capabilities to operationalize marine ecosystem modeling.
22.
Villasante, Sebastian; Murillas, Arantza; Pita, Pablo; Tubío, Ana; Pascual-Fernández, Jose J.; Arangao, Guillherme; Moranta, Joan; Coll, Marta; Ospina-Alvarez, Andrés; Juan, Silvia
Impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on the Spanish seafood sector Journal Article
In: Marine Policy, vol. 169, pp. 106293, 2024, (Publisher: Elsevier).
Links | BibTeX | Tags: COVID-19
@article{villasante_impacts_2024,
title = {Impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on the Spanish seafood sector},
author = {Sebastian Villasante and Arantza Murillas and Pablo Pita and Ana Tub\'{i}o and Jose J. Pascual-Fern\'{a}ndez and Guillherme Arangao and Joan Moranta and Marta Coll and Andr\'{e}s Ospina-Alvarez and Silvia Juan},
url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0308597X24002914},
year = {2024},
date = {2024-01-01},
urldate = {2025-01-08},
journal = {Marine Policy},
volume = {169},
pages = {106293},
publisher = {Elsevier},
note = {Publisher: Elsevier},
keywords = {COVID-19},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
23.
Angelini, Ronaldo; Lima, Maria Alice Leite; Lira, Alex Souza; Lucena-Frédou, Flávia; Frédou, Thierry; Bertrand, Arnaud; Giarrizzo, Tommaso; Steenbeek, Jeroen; Coll, Marta; Keppeler, Friedrich Wolfgang
The projected impacts of climate change and fishing pressure on a tropical marine food web Journal Article
In: Marine Environmental Research, pp. 106909, 2024, (Publisher: Elsevier).
Links | BibTeX | Tags: Brazil, Ecospace, fisheries
@article{angelini_projected_2024,
title = {The projected impacts of climate change and fishing pressure on a tropical marine food web},
author = {Ronaldo Angelini and Maria Alice Leite Lima and Alex Souza Lira and Fl\'{a}via Lucena-Fr\'{e}dou and Thierry Fr\'{e}dou and Arnaud Bertrand and Tommaso Giarrizzo and Jeroen Steenbeek and Marta Coll and Friedrich Wolfgang Keppeler},
url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0141113624005701},
year = {2024},
date = {2024-01-01},
urldate = {2025-01-08},
journal = {Marine Environmental Research},
pages = {106909},
publisher = {Elsevier},
note = {Publisher: Elsevier},
keywords = {Brazil, Ecospace, fisheries},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
24.
Coll, Marta; Bellido, José María; Pennino, Maria Grazia; Albo-Puigserver, Marta; Báez, José Carlos; Christensen, Villy; Corrales, Xavier; Fernández-Corredor, Elena; Giménez, Joan; Julià, Laura; Lloret-Lloret, Elena; Macias, Diego; Ouled-Cheikh, Jazel; Ramirez, F; Sbragaglia, Valerio; Steenbeek, Jeroen
Retrospective analysis of the pelagic ecosystem of the Western Mediterranean Sea: drivers, changes and effects Journal Article
In: Science of The Total Environment, vol. 907, pp. 167790, 2024, (Publisher: Elsevier).
Links | BibTeX | Tags: Ecospace, Mediterranean Sea
@article{coll_retrospective_2024,
title = {Retrospective analysis of the pelagic ecosystem of the Western Mediterranean Sea: drivers, changes and effects},
author = {Marta Coll and Jos\'{e} Mar\'{i}a Bellido and Maria Grazia Pennino and Marta Albo-Puigserver and Jos\'{e} Carlos B\'{a}ez and Villy Christensen and Xavier Corrales and Elena Fern\'{a}ndez-Corredor and Joan Gim\'{e}nez and Laura Juli\`{a} and Elena Lloret-Lloret and Diego Macias and Jazel Ouled-Cheikh and F Ramirez and Valerio Sbragaglia and Jeroen Steenbeek},
url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048969723064173?casa_token=NLXcFSCgZLEAAAAA:1mB2JzHY1-MT6gNLHKYCyRGOGiaBBAiNMoJW3r3cFjQskSyueeXcQOyeUwsKNSTiHFLfSos0V5k},
doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.167790},
year = {2024},
date = {2024-01-01},
urldate = {2024-01-31},
journal = {Science of The Total Environment},
volume = {907},
pages = {167790},
publisher = {Elsevier},
note = {Publisher: Elsevier},
keywords = {Ecospace, Mediterranean Sea},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
25.
Eddy, Tyler D.; Heneghan, Ryan F.; Bryndum-Buchholz, Andrea; Fulton, Beth; Harrison, Cheryl Shannon; Tittensor, Derek P.; Lotze, Heike K.; Ortega-Cisneros, Kelly; Novaglio, Camilla; Bianchi, Daniele
Global and regional marine ecosystem model climate change projections reveal key uncertainties Journal Article
In: 2024.
Links | BibTeX | Tags: EcoOcean, Ecospace, FishMIP
@article{eddy_global_2024,
title = {Global and regional marine ecosystem model climate change projections reveal key uncertainties},
author = {Tyler D. Eddy and Ryan F. Heneghan and Andrea Bryndum-Buchholz and Beth Fulton and Cheryl Shannon Harrison and Derek P. Tittensor and Heike K. Lotze and Kelly Ortega-Cisneros and Camilla Novaglio and Daniele Bianchi},
url = {https://hal.science/hal-04811335/},
year = {2024},
date = {2024-01-01},
urldate = {2025-01-08},
keywords = {EcoOcean, Ecospace, FishMIP},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
26.
de Mutsert, Kim; Coll, Marta; Steenbeek, Jeroen; Ainsworth, Cameron; Buszowski, Joe; Chagaris, David; Christensen, Villy; Heymans, Sheila JJ; Lewis, Kristy A.; Libralato, Simone
Advances in spatial-temporal coastal and marine ecosystem modeling using Ecospace Journal Article
In: 2024, (Publisher: Elsevier).
Links | BibTeX | Tags: Ecospace
@article{mutsert_advances_2024,
title = {Advances in spatial-temporal coastal and marine ecosystem modeling using Ecospace},
author = {Kim de Mutsert and Marta Coll and Jeroen Steenbeek and Cameron Ainsworth and Joe Buszowski and David Chagaris and Villy Christensen and Sheila JJ Heymans and Kristy A. Lewis and Simone Libralato},
url = {https://digital.csic.es/handle/10261/329496},
year = {2024},
date = {2024-01-01},
urldate = {2025-01-08},
publisher = {Elsevier},
note = {Publisher: Elsevier},
keywords = {Ecospace},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
27.
Ortega-Cisneros, Kelly; Arcos, L. Denisse Fierro; Novaglio, Camilla; Woodworth-Jefcoats, Phoebe; Eddy, Tyler; Coll, Marta; Fulton, Beth; Oliveros-Ramos, Ricardo; Reum, Jonathan Charles; Shin, Yunne-Jai
An Integrated Global-to-Regional Scale Workflow for Simulating Climate Change Impacts on Marine Ecosystems Journal Article
In: Authorea Preprints, 2024, (Publisher: Authorea).
Links | BibTeX | Tags: FishMIP
@article{ortega-cisneros_integrated_2024,
title = {An Integrated Global-to-Regional Scale Workflow for Simulating Climate Change Impacts on Marine Ecosystems},
author = {Kelly Ortega-Cisneros and L. Denisse Fierro Arcos and Camilla Novaglio and Phoebe Woodworth-Jefcoats and Tyler Eddy and Marta Coll and Beth Fulton and Ricardo Oliveros-Ramos and Jonathan Charles Reum and Yunne-Jai Shin},
url = {https://essopenarchive.org/doi/full/10.22541/essoar.171587234.44707846},
year = {2024},
date = {2024-01-01},
urldate = {2025-01-08},
journal = {Authorea Preprints},
publisher = {Authorea},
note = {Publisher: Authorea},
keywords = {FishMIP},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
28.
Ruzicka, James; Chiaverano, Luciano; Coll, Marta; Garrido, Susana; Tam, Jorge; Murase, Hiroto; Robinson, Kelly; Romagnoni, Giovanni; Shannon, Lynne; Silva, Alexandra
The role of small pelagic fish in diverse ecosystems: knowledge gleaned from food-web models Journal Article
In: Marine Ecology Progress Series, 2024.
Links | BibTeX | Tags: Ecosystem structure
@article{ruzicka_role_2024,
title = {The role of small pelagic fish in diverse ecosystems: knowledge gleaned from food-web models},
author = {James Ruzicka and Luciano Chiaverano and Marta Coll and Susana Garrido and Jorge Tam and Hiroto Murase and Kelly Robinson and Giovanni Romagnoni and Lynne Shannon and Alexandra Silva},
url = {https://www.int-res.com/abstracts/meps/SPF2/p_av9/},
year = {2024},
date = {2024-01-01},
urldate = {2025-01-08},
journal = {Marine Ecology Progress Series},
keywords = {Ecosystem structure},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
29.
Rynne, Nina; Novaglio, Camilla; Blanchard, Julia L.; Bianchi, Daniele; Christensen, Villy; Coll, Marta; Guiet, Jerome; Steenbeek, Jeroen Gerhard; Bryndum-Buchholz, Andrea; Eddy, Tyler
A skill assessment framework for the fisheries and marine ecosystem model intercomparison project Journal Article
In: Authorea Preprints, 2024, (Publisher: Authorea).
Links | BibTeX | Tags: EcoOcean, FishMIP, systematic skill assessments
@article{rynne_skill_2024,
title = {A skill assessment framework for the fisheries and marine ecosystem model intercomparison project},
author = {Nina Rynne and Camilla Novaglio and Julia L. Blanchard and Daniele Bianchi and Villy Christensen and Marta Coll and Jerome Guiet and Jeroen Gerhard Steenbeek and Andrea Bryndum-Buchholz and Tyler Eddy},
url = {https://essopenarchive.org/doi/full/10.22541/essoar.171580191.17895127},
year = {2024},
date = {2024-01-01},
urldate = {2025-01-08},
journal = {Authorea Preprints},
publisher = {Authorea},
note = {Publisher: Authorea},
keywords = {EcoOcean, FishMIP, systematic skill assessments},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
30.
Fuster-Alonso, Alba; Mestre-Tomás, Jorge; Baez, Jose Carlos; Pennino, Maria Grazia; Barber, Xavier; Bellido, Jose María; Conesa, David; López-Quílez, Antonio; Steenbeek, Jeroen; Christensen, Villy
Machine learning applied to global scale species distribution models (SDMs) Journal Article
In: 2024.
@article{fuster-alonso_machine_2024,
title = {Machine learning applied to global scale species distribution models (SDMs)},
author = {Alba Fuster-Alonso and Jorge Mestre-Tom\'{a}s and Jose Carlos Baez and Maria Grazia Pennino and Xavier Barber and Jose Mar\'{i}a Bellido and David Conesa and Antonio L\'{o}pez-Qu\'{i}lez and Jeroen Steenbeek and Villy Christensen},
url = {https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-4411399/v1_covered_6229deb6-c667-4fa5-bd71-2c153bd22822.pdf},
year = {2024},
date = {2024-01-01},
urldate = {2026-07-15},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
31.
Blanchard, Julia L.; Novaglio, Camilla; Maury, Olivier; Harrison, Cheryl Shannon; Petrik, Colleen M.; Arcos, L. Denisse Fierro; Ortega-Cisneros, Kelly; Bryndum-Buchholz, Andrea; Eddy, Tyler; Heneghan, Ryan
Detecting, Attributing, and Projecting Global Marine Ecosystem and Fisheries Change: FishMIP 2.0 Journal Article
In: Authorea Preprints, 2024.
@article{blanchardDetectingAttributingProjecting2024,
title = {Detecting, Attributing, and Projecting Global Marine Ecosystem and Fisheries Change: FishMIP 2.0},
author = {Julia L. Blanchard and Camilla Novaglio and Olivier Maury and Cheryl Shannon Harrison and Colleen M. Petrik and L. Denisse Fierro Arcos and Kelly Ortega-Cisneros and Andrea Bryndum-Buchholz and Tyler Eddy and Ryan Heneghan},
year = {2024},
date = {2024-01-01},
urldate = {2024-01-01},
journal = {Authorea Preprints},
publisher = {Authorea},
keywords = {EcoOcean},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
32.
Coll, Marta; Bellido, José María; Pennino, Maria Grazia; Albo-Puigserver, Marta; Báez, José Carlos; Christensen, Villy; Corrales, Xavier; Fernández-Corredor, Elena; Giménez, Joan; Julià, Laura; Lloret-Lloret, Elena; Macias, Diego; Ouled-Cheikh, Jazel; Ramirez, F; Sbragaglia, Valerio; Steenbeek, Jeroen
Retrospective Analysis of the Pelagic Ecosystem of the Western Mediterranean Sea: Drivers, Changes and Effects Journal Article
In: Science of The Total Environment, vol. 907, pp. 167790, 2024.
@article{collRetrospectiveAnalysisPelagic2024,
title = {Retrospective Analysis of the Pelagic Ecosystem of the Western Mediterranean Sea: Drivers, Changes and Effects},
author = {Marta Coll and Jos\'{e} Mar\'{i}a Bellido and Maria Grazia Pennino and Marta Albo-Puigserver and Jos\'{e} Carlos B\'{a}ez and Villy Christensen and Xavier Corrales and Elena Fern\'{a}ndez-Corredor and Joan Gim\'{e}nez and Laura Juli\`{a} and Elena Lloret-Lloret and Diego Macias and Jazel Ouled-Cheikh and F Ramirez and Valerio Sbragaglia and Jeroen Steenbeek},
doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.167790},
year = {2024},
date = {2024-01-01},
urldate = {2024-01-31},
journal = {Science of The Total Environment},
volume = {907},
pages = {167790},
publisher = {Elsevier},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Miscellaneous
33.
Boot, Amber Adore; Steenbeek, Jeroen Gerhard; Coll, Marta; Heydt, Anna S. Von Der; Dijkstra, Henk A.
Global marine ecosystem response to a strong AMOC weakening under low and high future emission scenarios Miscellaneous
2024.
Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags: AMOC, EcoOcean, systematic assessments
@misc{boot_global_2024,
title = {Global marine ecosystem response to a strong AMOC weakening under low and high future emission scenarios},
author = {Amber Adore Boot and Jeroen Gerhard Steenbeek and Marta Coll and Anna S. Von Der Heydt and Henk A. Dijkstra},
url = {https://essopenarchive.org/users/668598/articles/825971-global-marine-ecosystem-response-to-a-strong-amoc-weakening-under-low-and-high-future-emission-scenarios?commit=9e4e97c43e2dde5615a4abd6ee1183814eb56950},
doi = {10.22541/essoar.171319366.64840276/v1},
year = {2024},
date = {2024-04-01},
urldate = {2024-05-02},
abstract = {Marine ecosystems provide essential services to the Earth System and
society. These ecosystems are threatened by anthropogenic activities and
climate change. Climate change increases the risk of passing tipping
points; for example, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation
(AMOC) might tip under future global warming leading to additional
changes in the climate system. Here, we look at the effect of an AMOC
weakening on marine ecosystems by forcing the Community Earth System
Model v2 (CESM2) with low (SSP1-2.6) and high (SSP5-8.5) emission
scenarios from 2015 to 2100. An additional freshwater flux is added in
the North Atlantic to induce extra weakening of the AMOC. In CESM2, the
AMOC weakening has a large impact on phytoplankton biomass and
temperature fields through various mechanisms that change the supply of
nutrients to the surface ocean. We drive a marine ecosystem model,
EcoOcean, with phytoplankton biomass and temperature fields from CESM2.
In EcoOcean, we see negative impacts in Total System Biomass (TSB),
which are larger for high trophic level organisms. The strongest net
effect is seen in the high emission scenario, but the effect of the
extra AMOC weakening on TSB is larger in the low emission scenario. On
top of anthropogenic climate change, TSB decreases by -3.78% and
-2.03% in SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5, respectively due to the AMOC
weakening. These results show that marine ecosystems will be under
increased threat if the AMOC weakens which might put additional stresses
on socio-economic systems that are dependent on marine biodiversity as a
food and income source.},
keywords = {AMOC, EcoOcean, systematic assessments},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {misc}
}
Marine ecosystems provide essential services to the Earth System and
society. These ecosystems are threatened by anthropogenic activities and
climate change. Climate change increases the risk of passing tipping
points; for example, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation
(AMOC) might tip under future global warming leading to additional
changes in the climate system. Here, we look at the effect of an AMOC
weakening on marine ecosystems by forcing the Community Earth System
Model v2 (CESM2) with low (SSP1-2.6) and high (SSP5-8.5) emission
scenarios from 2015 to 2100. An additional freshwater flux is added in
the North Atlantic to induce extra weakening of the AMOC. In CESM2, the
AMOC weakening has a large impact on phytoplankton biomass and
temperature fields through various mechanisms that change the supply of
nutrients to the surface ocean. We drive a marine ecosystem model,
EcoOcean, with phytoplankton biomass and temperature fields from CESM2.
In EcoOcean, we see negative impacts in Total System Biomass (TSB),
which are larger for high trophic level organisms. The strongest net
effect is seen in the high emission scenario, but the effect of the
extra AMOC weakening on TSB is larger in the low emission scenario. On
top of anthropogenic climate change, TSB decreases by -3.78% and
-2.03% in SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5, respectively due to the AMOC
weakening. These results show that marine ecosystems will be under
increased threat if the AMOC weakens which might put additional stresses
on socio-economic systems that are dependent on marine biodiversity as a
food and income source.
society. These ecosystems are threatened by anthropogenic activities and
climate change. Climate change increases the risk of passing tipping
points; for example, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation
(AMOC) might tip under future global warming leading to additional
changes in the climate system. Here, we look at the effect of an AMOC
weakening on marine ecosystems by forcing the Community Earth System
Model v2 (CESM2) with low (SSP1-2.6) and high (SSP5-8.5) emission
scenarios from 2015 to 2100. An additional freshwater flux is added in
the North Atlantic to induce extra weakening of the AMOC. In CESM2, the
AMOC weakening has a large impact on phytoplankton biomass and
temperature fields through various mechanisms that change the supply of
nutrients to the surface ocean. We drive a marine ecosystem model,
EcoOcean, with phytoplankton biomass and temperature fields from CESM2.
In EcoOcean, we see negative impacts in Total System Biomass (TSB),
which are larger for high trophic level organisms. The strongest net
effect is seen in the high emission scenario, but the effect of the
extra AMOC weakening on TSB is larger in the low emission scenario. On
top of anthropogenic climate change, TSB decreases by -3.78% and
-2.03% in SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5, respectively due to the AMOC
weakening. These results show that marine ecosystems will be under
increased threat if the AMOC weakens which might put additional stresses
on socio-economic systems that are dependent on marine biodiversity as a
food and income source.
PhD Theses
34.
Steenbeek, Jeroen; Christensen, Villy; Fulton, Elizabeth A.; Infantes, Manuel Espino
Ecosystem modelling for the ocean decade - facing the challenge PhD Thesis
Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, 2024.
Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags: EcoOcean, Ocean Decade, OceanViz, Software engineering, systematic model calibration, systematic skill assessments
@phdthesis{steenbeek_ecosystem_2024,
title = {Ecosystem modelling for the ocean decade - facing the challenge},
author = {Jeroen Steenbeek and Villy Christensen and Elizabeth A. Fulton and Manuel Espino Infantes},
url = {http://hdl.handle.net/2117/417801},
doi = {10.5821/dissertation-2117-417801},
year = {2024},
date = {2024-10-01},
urldate = {2025-01-07},
school = {Universitat Polit\`{e}cnica de Catalunya},
abstract = {(English) The worlds’marine ecosystems are degrading under wide ranges of ever intensifying, diversifying and co-occurring human pressures. Ecosystem-based management (EBM) approaches have emerged as an alternative to ineffective single species and single sector management, veering away from siloed top-down approaches towards science-based, participatory processes that recognise connections across the system and seek to balance economic benefits with sustainably harvested and healthy ecosystems. To galvanize a global push towards EBM, the United Nations declaration of the Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development (Ocean Decade) has given the oceanographic community a unique imperative to transform marine sciences into holistic, participatory, transparent and inclusive forms that involve and serve society.
Transforming actual ocean sciences is easier said than done. Marine Ecosystem Models or MEMs are powerful mathematical tools for understanding past marine ecosystem and their dynamics under cumulative pressures, and have utility for predicting how ecosystems may continue to develop under scenarios of change. MEMs are widely used in science, and have significant utility to advice decision making and policy. However, despite decades of scientific progress, and despite an abundance of scientific recipes in the literature that can be deployed towards the aims of the Ocean Decade, the actual uptake of MEMs in management remains low.
This dissertation explores why this is, and argues that the actual uptake of MEMs in policy and society is in part hampered by a factor largely ignored by the marine sciences: technical issues, institutionalized by the current competitive and
achievement-driven academic funding model. The dissertation is based on four manuscripts, which explore the specific challenges raised by the Ocean Decade, and define and implement working prototypes to demonstrate that the gap between theory and practice can be bridged.
The first challenge, enabling decision processes to use MEMs, is addressed in manuscript 1 where a MEM is integrated into a decision support tool for marine spatial planning, beyond the operational control of marine scientists. The second challenge, related to meaningfully communicating MEM output to outside audiences, is addressed in manuscript 2 where a MEM is interconnected with a 3D gaming engine to empathically visualize environmental change. The last challenge, making sure that MEM output is robust, is discussed in manuscripts 3 and 4. Of these, the first manuscript explores the reasons behind lack of systematic MEM assessments and puts forth a potential framework to overcome this 30-year old limitation. Manuscript 4 introduces a working and open-source prototype of that framework.
Overall, these studies show that relatively simple software engineering can empower the use of MEMs towards the aims of the Ocean Decade, EBM, and beyond. This dissertation underscores that scientific and technical developments must go hand in hand, but also suggests that the status quo may not change unless long-term tool development and support become academic funding priorities. Last, although the prototypes developed in this dissertation should be taken as ideas that need further maturing in future research, the ideas throughout irrevocably demonstrate that the field of marine ecosystem modelling with relatively simple means can be made operational for the Ocean Decade. If anything, this dissertation is a rallying cry to the global marine ecosystem modelling community to rethink and reshape how we build, validate, calibrate and deploy our tools, with the aim to reach and involve the audiences that need marine science advice but do not have the means to generate it.
(Catal\`{a}) Els ecosistemes marins del m\'{o}n s'estan degradant sota un ampli ventall de pressions humanes combinades que s'intensifiquen i es diversifiquen. Els enfocaments de gesti\'{o} basada en ecosistemes (EBM) han sorgit com una alternativa a la gesti\'{o} inefica\c{c}, transitant des d´enfocaments sectorials de dalt a baix cap a processos participatius recolzats en la ci\`{e}ncia que reconeixen connexions a nivell de tot el sistema i busquen equilibrar el benefici econ\`{o}mic amb ecosistemes saludables i sostenibles. El Decenni de les Ci\`{e}ncies Oce\`{a}niques per al Desenvolupament Sostenible de les Nacions Unides ha traslladat a la comunitat oceanogr\`{a}fica l´imperatiu de transformar les ci\`{e}ncies marines mitjan\c{c}ant enfocaments hol\'{i}stics, participatius, transparents i inclusius que involucrin i serveixin a la societat.
Transformar les ci\`{e}ncies oce\`{a}niques actuals \'{e}s dif\'{i}cil. Els models d'ecosistemes marins (MEM) s\'{o}n eines matem\`{a}tiques poderoses per comprendre la din\`{a}mica passada dels ecosistemes marins i el seu canvi sota pressions acumulatives, i capaces de predir com els ecosistemes poden continuar desenvolupant-se en escenaris canviants. Els MEM s'utilitzen \`{a}mpliament en ci\`{e}ncia i tenen una gran utilitat per assessorar pol\'{i}tiques i prendre decisions. No obstant aix\`{o}, malgrat d\`{e}cades de progr\'{e}s i de l'abund\`{a}ncia de recomanacions cient\'{i}fiques que poden implementar-se per aconseguir els objectius del Decenni dels Oceans, l'adopci\'{o} real dels MEM en la gesti\'{o} continua sent baixa.
Aquesta tesi explora les raons d'aquesta situaci\'{o} i sost\'{e} que l'adopci\'{o} real dels MEM en les pol\'{i}tiques i la societat es veu en part obstaculitzada per un factor ignorat en gran part per les ci\`{e}ncies marines: els problemes t\`{e}cnics, institucionalitzats pel model actual de finan\c{c}ament acad\`{e}mic competitiu i orientat a resultats. La tesi es basa en quatre manuscrits, que exploren els desafiaments espec\'{i}fics que planteja la d\`{e}cada dels oceans i defineixen i implementen prototips funcionals que mostren que es pot salvar la bretxa entre la teoria i la pr\`{a}ctica.
El primer desafiament, permetre que els processos de decisi\'{o} utilitzin MEM, s'aborda al manuscrit 1, on un MEM s'integra en una eina de suport a la decisi\'{o} per a la planificaci\'{o} de l'espai mar\'{i}, sense necessitat de control operatiu dels cient\'{i}fics marins. El segon desafiament, relacionat amb la comunicaci\'{o} significativa de la sortida del MEM a audi\`{e}ncies externes, s'aborda al manuscrit 2, en el qual un MEM s’interconnecta amb un motor de joc 3D per mostrar visualment el canvi ambiental. El desafiament final, garantir que els resultats del MEM siguin s\`{o}lids, es discuteix en els manuscrits 3 i 4. D'aquests, el primer explora les raons de la manca d'avaluacions sistem\`{a}tiques dels MEM i proposa un marc potencial per superar aquesta limitaci\'{o} persistent, mentre que el segon presenta un prototip funcional de codi obert d'aquest marc.
En conjunt, aquests estudis mostren que una enginyeria de programari relativament senzilla pot potenciar l'\'{u}s de MEM per als objectius de la d\`{e}cada oce\`{a}nica, l’EBM i m\'{e}s enll\`{a}. Aquesta tesi subratlla que els avan\c{c}os cient\'{i}fics i t\`{e}cnics han d'anar de bracet, per\`{o} tamb\'{e} suggereix que el l'estancament actual no pot canviar tret que el desenvolupament i el suport a llarg termini a les eines sigui una prioritat de finan\c{c}ament. Encara que els prototips desenvolupats en aquesta tesi han de prendre´s com a idees que necessiten madurar-se m\'{e}s en futures investigacions, els treballs presentats mostren amb claredat que la modelitzaci\'{o} d'ecosistemes marins amb mitjans relativament senzills pot fer-se operativa per a la D\`{e}cada dels Oceans.
Finalment, aquest treball \'{e}s una crida urgent a la comunitat mundial de modelitzaci\'{o} d'ecosistemes marins per repensar i remodelar com constru\"{i}m, validem, calibrem i despleguem les nostres eines, amb l'objectiu d'arribar i implicar a les audi\`{e}ncies que necessitin aquest assessorament.
(Espa\~{n}ol) Los ecosistemas marinos del mundo se est\'{a}n degradando por efecto de una amplia gama de presiones humanas combinadas que se intensifican y diversifican. Los enfoques de gesti\'{o}n basada en ecosistemas (EBM) han surgido como alternativa a la gesti\'{o}n ineficaz, transitando desde enfoques sectoriales basados en una l\'{o}gica de arriba-abajo hacia procesos participativos apoyados en la ciencia que reconocen conexiones a nivel de todo el sistema y buscan equilibrar el beneficio econ\'{o}mico con ecosistemas saludables y sostenibles. El Decenio de las Ciencias Oce\'{a}nicas para el Desarrollo Sostenible de las Naciones Unidas ha trasladado a la comunidad oceanogr\'{a}fica el imperativo de transformar las ciencias marinas con enfoques hol\'{i}sticos, participativos, transparentes e inclusivos que involucren y sirvan a la sociedad.
Transformar las ciencias oce\'{a}nicas actuales es dif\'{i}cil. Los modelos de ecosistemas marinos (MEM) son herramientas matem\'{a}ticas poderosas para comprender la din\'{a}mica pasada de los ecosistemas marinos y su cambio bajo presiones acumulativas, y capaces de predecir c\'{o}mo los ecosistemas pueden continuar desarroll\'{a}ndose en escenarios cambiantes. Los MEM se utilizan ampliamente en ciencia y tienen una gran utilidad para asesorar pol\'{i}ticas y tomar decisiones. Sin embargo, a pesar de d\'{e}cadas de progreso y de la abundancia de recomendaciones en la literatura cient\'{i}fica que pueden implementarse para alcanzar los objetivos del Decenio de los Oc\'{e}anos, la adopci\'{o}n real de los MEM en la gesti\'{o}n sigue siendo baja.
Esta tesis explora las razones de esta situaci\'{o}n y sostiene que la adopci\'{o}n real de los MEM en las pol\'{i}ticas y la sociedad se ve obstaculizada en parte por un factor ignorado en gran medida por las ciencias marinas: los problemas t\'{e}cnicos, institucionalizados por el modelo actual de financiaci\'{o}n acad\'{e}mica competitiva y orientada a resultados. La tesis se basa en cuatro manuscritos que exploran los desaf\'{i}os espec\'{i}ficos que plantea la D\'{e}cada de los Oc\'{e}anos y definen e implementan prototipos funcionales que muestran que se puede cerrar la brecha entre la teor\'{i}a y la pr\'{a}ctica.
El primer desaf\'{i}o, permitir que los procesos de decisi\'{o}n utilicen MEM, se aborda en el manuscrito 1, en el que un MEM se integra en una herramienta de apoyo a la toma de decisiones para la planificaci\'{o}n espacial marina, sin necesidad de control operativo de los cient\'{i}ficos marinos. El segundo desaf\'{i}o, relacionado con la comunicaci\'{o}n efectiva de los resultados de MEM a audiencias externas, se aborda en el manuscrito 2, en el que un MEM se interconecta con un motor de juego 3D para mostrar visualmente el cambio ambiental. El desaf\'{i}o final, garantizar que los resultados del MEM sean s\'{o}lidos, se analiza en los manuscritos 3 y 4. De estos, el primero explora las razones de la falta de evaluaciones sistem\'{a}ticas del MEM y propone un marco para superar esta limitaci\'{o}n persistente, mientras que el segundo presenta un prototipo funcional de c\'{o}digo abierto de este marco.
En conjunto, estos estudios muestran que una ingenier\'{i}a de software relativamente sencilla puede potenciar el uso de MEM hacia los objetivos de la D\'{e}cada de los Oc\'{e}anos, la EBM y m\'{a}s all\'{a}. Esta tesis subraya que los avances cient\'{i}ficos y t\'{e}cnicos deben ir de la mano, pero tambi\'{e}n sugiere que el statu quo puede no cambiar a menos que el apoyo a largo plazo a las herramientas sea una prioridad de financiaci\'{o}n. Por \'{u}ltimo, aunque los prototipos desarrollados en esta tesis deben tomarse como ideas que necesitan madurarse m\'{a}s, los trabajos presentados muestran inequ\'{i}vocamente que el campo de la modelizaci\'{o}n de ecosistemas marinos con medios relativamente simples puede hacerse operativo para el Decenio de los Oc\'{e}anos. Finalmente, este trabajo aspira a motivar a la comunidad mundial de modelizaci\'{o}n de ecosistemas marinos para repensar c\'{o}mo construimos, validamos, calibramos e implementamos nuestras herramientas, con el objetivo de llegar e involucrar a las audiencias que necesiten ese asesoramiento.},
keywords = {EcoOcean, Ocean Decade, OceanViz, Software engineering, systematic model calibration, systematic skill assessments},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {phdthesis}
}
(English) The worlds’marine ecosystems are degrading under wide ranges of ever intensifying, diversifying and co-occurring human pressures. Ecosystem-based management (EBM) approaches have emerged as an alternative to ineffective single species and single sector management, veering away from siloed top-down approaches towards science-based, participatory processes that recognise connections across the system and seek to balance economic benefits with sustainably harvested and healthy ecosystems. To galvanize a global push towards EBM, the United Nations declaration of the Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development (Ocean Decade) has given the oceanographic community a unique imperative to transform marine sciences into holistic, participatory, transparent and inclusive forms that involve and serve society.
Transforming actual ocean sciences is easier said than done. Marine Ecosystem Models or MEMs are powerful mathematical tools for understanding past marine ecosystem and their dynamics under cumulative pressures, and have utility for predicting how ecosystems may continue to develop under scenarios of change. MEMs are widely used in science, and have significant utility to advice decision making and policy. However, despite decades of scientific progress, and despite an abundance of scientific recipes in the literature that can be deployed towards the aims of the Ocean Decade, the actual uptake of MEMs in management remains low.
This dissertation explores why this is, and argues that the actual uptake of MEMs in policy and society is in part hampered by a factor largely ignored by the marine sciences: technical issues, institutionalized by the current competitive and
achievement-driven academic funding model. The dissertation is based on four manuscripts, which explore the specific challenges raised by the Ocean Decade, and define and implement working prototypes to demonstrate that the gap between theory and practice can be bridged.
The first challenge, enabling decision processes to use MEMs, is addressed in manuscript 1 where a MEM is integrated into a decision support tool for marine spatial planning, beyond the operational control of marine scientists. The second challenge, related to meaningfully communicating MEM output to outside audiences, is addressed in manuscript 2 where a MEM is interconnected with a 3D gaming engine to empathically visualize environmental change. The last challenge, making sure that MEM output is robust, is discussed in manuscripts 3 and 4. Of these, the first manuscript explores the reasons behind lack of systematic MEM assessments and puts forth a potential framework to overcome this 30-year old limitation. Manuscript 4 introduces a working and open-source prototype of that framework.
Overall, these studies show that relatively simple software engineering can empower the use of MEMs towards the aims of the Ocean Decade, EBM, and beyond. This dissertation underscores that scientific and technical developments must go hand in hand, but also suggests that the status quo may not change unless long-term tool development and support become academic funding priorities. Last, although the prototypes developed in this dissertation should be taken as ideas that need further maturing in future research, the ideas throughout irrevocably demonstrate that the field of marine ecosystem modelling with relatively simple means can be made operational for the Ocean Decade. If anything, this dissertation is a rallying cry to the global marine ecosystem modelling community to rethink and reshape how we build, validate, calibrate and deploy our tools, with the aim to reach and involve the audiences that need marine science advice but do not have the means to generate it.
(Català) Els ecosistemes marins del món s'estan degradant sota un ampli ventall de pressions humanes combinades que s'intensifiquen i es diversifiquen. Els enfocaments de gestió basada en ecosistemes (EBM) han sorgit com una alternativa a la gestió ineficaç, transitant des d´enfocaments sectorials de dalt a baix cap a processos participatius recolzats en la ciència que reconeixen connexions a nivell de tot el sistema i busquen equilibrar el benefici econòmic amb ecosistemes saludables i sostenibles. El Decenni de les Ciències Oceàniques per al Desenvolupament Sostenible de les Nacions Unides ha traslladat a la comunitat oceanogràfica l´imperatiu de transformar les ciències marines mitjançant enfocaments holístics, participatius, transparents i inclusius que involucrin i serveixin a la societat.
Transformar les ciències oceàniques actuals és difícil. Els models d'ecosistemes marins (MEM) són eines matemàtiques poderoses per comprendre la dinàmica passada dels ecosistemes marins i el seu canvi sota pressions acumulatives, i capaces de predir com els ecosistemes poden continuar desenvolupant-se en escenaris canviants. Els MEM s'utilitzen àmpliament en ciència i tenen una gran utilitat per assessorar polítiques i prendre decisions. No obstant això, malgrat dècades de progrés i de l'abundància de recomanacions científiques que poden implementar-se per aconseguir els objectius del Decenni dels Oceans, l'adopció real dels MEM en la gestió continua sent baixa.
Aquesta tesi explora les raons d'aquesta situació i sosté que l'adopció real dels MEM en les polítiques i la societat es veu en part obstaculitzada per un factor ignorat en gran part per les ciències marines: els problemes tècnics, institucionalitzats pel model actual de finançament acadèmic competitiu i orientat a resultats. La tesi es basa en quatre manuscrits, que exploren els desafiaments específics que planteja la dècada dels oceans i defineixen i implementen prototips funcionals que mostren que es pot salvar la bretxa entre la teoria i la pràctica.
El primer desafiament, permetre que els processos de decisió utilitzin MEM, s'aborda al manuscrit 1, on un MEM s'integra en una eina de suport a la decisió per a la planificació de l'espai marí, sense necessitat de control operatiu dels científics marins. El segon desafiament, relacionat amb la comunicació significativa de la sortida del MEM a audiències externes, s'aborda al manuscrit 2, en el qual un MEM s’interconnecta amb un motor de joc 3D per mostrar visualment el canvi ambiental. El desafiament final, garantir que els resultats del MEM siguin sòlids, es discuteix en els manuscrits 3 i 4. D'aquests, el primer explora les raons de la manca d'avaluacions sistemàtiques dels MEM i proposa un marc potencial per superar aquesta limitació persistent, mentre que el segon presenta un prototip funcional de codi obert d'aquest marc.
En conjunt, aquests estudis mostren que una enginyeria de programari relativament senzilla pot potenciar l'ús de MEM per als objectius de la dècada oceànica, l’EBM i més enllà. Aquesta tesi subratlla que els avanços científics i tècnics han d'anar de bracet, però també suggereix que el l'estancament actual no pot canviar tret que el desenvolupament i el suport a llarg termini a les eines sigui una prioritat de finançament. Encara que els prototips desenvolupats en aquesta tesi han de prendre´s com a idees que necessiten madurar-se més en futures investigacions, els treballs presentats mostren amb claredat que la modelització d'ecosistemes marins amb mitjans relativament senzills pot fer-se operativa per a la Dècada dels Oceans.
Finalment, aquest treball és una crida urgent a la comunitat mundial de modelització d'ecosistemes marins per repensar i remodelar com construïm, validem, calibrem i despleguem les nostres eines, amb l'objectiu d'arribar i implicar a les audiències que necessitin aquest assessorament.
(Español) Los ecosistemas marinos del mundo se están degradando por efecto de una amplia gama de presiones humanas combinadas que se intensifican y diversifican. Los enfoques de gestión basada en ecosistemas (EBM) han surgido como alternativa a la gestión ineficaz, transitando desde enfoques sectoriales basados en una lógica de arriba-abajo hacia procesos participativos apoyados en la ciencia que reconocen conexiones a nivel de todo el sistema y buscan equilibrar el beneficio económico con ecosistemas saludables y sostenibles. El Decenio de las Ciencias Oceánicas para el Desarrollo Sostenible de las Naciones Unidas ha trasladado a la comunidad oceanográfica el imperativo de transformar las ciencias marinas con enfoques holísticos, participativos, transparentes e inclusivos que involucren y sirvan a la sociedad.
Transformar las ciencias oceánicas actuales es difícil. Los modelos de ecosistemas marinos (MEM) son herramientas matemáticas poderosas para comprender la dinámica pasada de los ecosistemas marinos y su cambio bajo presiones acumulativas, y capaces de predecir cómo los ecosistemas pueden continuar desarrollándose en escenarios cambiantes. Los MEM se utilizan ampliamente en ciencia y tienen una gran utilidad para asesorar políticas y tomar decisiones. Sin embargo, a pesar de décadas de progreso y de la abundancia de recomendaciones en la literatura científica que pueden implementarse para alcanzar los objetivos del Decenio de los Océanos, la adopción real de los MEM en la gestión sigue siendo baja.
Esta tesis explora las razones de esta situación y sostiene que la adopción real de los MEM en las políticas y la sociedad se ve obstaculizada en parte por un factor ignorado en gran medida por las ciencias marinas: los problemas técnicos, institucionalizados por el modelo actual de financiación académica competitiva y orientada a resultados. La tesis se basa en cuatro manuscritos que exploran los desafíos específicos que plantea la Década de los Océanos y definen e implementan prototipos funcionales que muestran que se puede cerrar la brecha entre la teoría y la práctica.
El primer desafío, permitir que los procesos de decisión utilicen MEM, se aborda en el manuscrito 1, en el que un MEM se integra en una herramienta de apoyo a la toma de decisiones para la planificación espacial marina, sin necesidad de control operativo de los científicos marinos. El segundo desafío, relacionado con la comunicación efectiva de los resultados de MEM a audiencias externas, se aborda en el manuscrito 2, en el que un MEM se interconecta con un motor de juego 3D para mostrar visualmente el cambio ambiental. El desafío final, garantizar que los resultados del MEM sean sólidos, se analiza en los manuscritos 3 y 4. De estos, el primero explora las razones de la falta de evaluaciones sistemáticas del MEM y propone un marco para superar esta limitación persistente, mientras que el segundo presenta un prototipo funcional de código abierto de este marco.
En conjunto, estos estudios muestran que una ingeniería de software relativamente sencilla puede potenciar el uso de MEM hacia los objetivos de la Década de los Océanos, la EBM y más allá. Esta tesis subraya que los avances científicos y técnicos deben ir de la mano, pero también sugiere que el statu quo puede no cambiar a menos que el apoyo a largo plazo a las herramientas sea una prioridad de financiación. Por último, aunque los prototipos desarrollados en esta tesis deben tomarse como ideas que necesitan madurarse más, los trabajos presentados muestran inequívocamente que el campo de la modelización de ecosistemas marinos con medios relativamente simples puede hacerse operativo para el Decenio de los Océanos. Finalmente, este trabajo aspira a motivar a la comunidad mundial de modelización de ecosistemas marinos para repensar cómo construimos, validamos, calibramos e implementamos nuestras herramientas, con el objetivo de llegar e involucrar a las audiencias que necesiten ese asesoramiento.
Transforming actual ocean sciences is easier said than done. Marine Ecosystem Models or MEMs are powerful mathematical tools for understanding past marine ecosystem and their dynamics under cumulative pressures, and have utility for predicting how ecosystems may continue to develop under scenarios of change. MEMs are widely used in science, and have significant utility to advice decision making and policy. However, despite decades of scientific progress, and despite an abundance of scientific recipes in the literature that can be deployed towards the aims of the Ocean Decade, the actual uptake of MEMs in management remains low.
This dissertation explores why this is, and argues that the actual uptake of MEMs in policy and society is in part hampered by a factor largely ignored by the marine sciences: technical issues, institutionalized by the current competitive and
achievement-driven academic funding model. The dissertation is based on four manuscripts, which explore the specific challenges raised by the Ocean Decade, and define and implement working prototypes to demonstrate that the gap between theory and practice can be bridged.
The first challenge, enabling decision processes to use MEMs, is addressed in manuscript 1 where a MEM is integrated into a decision support tool for marine spatial planning, beyond the operational control of marine scientists. The second challenge, related to meaningfully communicating MEM output to outside audiences, is addressed in manuscript 2 where a MEM is interconnected with a 3D gaming engine to empathically visualize environmental change. The last challenge, making sure that MEM output is robust, is discussed in manuscripts 3 and 4. Of these, the first manuscript explores the reasons behind lack of systematic MEM assessments and puts forth a potential framework to overcome this 30-year old limitation. Manuscript 4 introduces a working and open-source prototype of that framework.
Overall, these studies show that relatively simple software engineering can empower the use of MEMs towards the aims of the Ocean Decade, EBM, and beyond. This dissertation underscores that scientific and technical developments must go hand in hand, but also suggests that the status quo may not change unless long-term tool development and support become academic funding priorities. Last, although the prototypes developed in this dissertation should be taken as ideas that need further maturing in future research, the ideas throughout irrevocably demonstrate that the field of marine ecosystem modelling with relatively simple means can be made operational for the Ocean Decade. If anything, this dissertation is a rallying cry to the global marine ecosystem modelling community to rethink and reshape how we build, validate, calibrate and deploy our tools, with the aim to reach and involve the audiences that need marine science advice but do not have the means to generate it.
(Català) Els ecosistemes marins del món s'estan degradant sota un ampli ventall de pressions humanes combinades que s'intensifiquen i es diversifiquen. Els enfocaments de gestió basada en ecosistemes (EBM) han sorgit com una alternativa a la gestió ineficaç, transitant des d´enfocaments sectorials de dalt a baix cap a processos participatius recolzats en la ciència que reconeixen connexions a nivell de tot el sistema i busquen equilibrar el benefici econòmic amb ecosistemes saludables i sostenibles. El Decenni de les Ciències Oceàniques per al Desenvolupament Sostenible de les Nacions Unides ha traslladat a la comunitat oceanogràfica l´imperatiu de transformar les ciències marines mitjançant enfocaments holístics, participatius, transparents i inclusius que involucrin i serveixin a la societat.
Transformar les ciències oceàniques actuals és difícil. Els models d'ecosistemes marins (MEM) són eines matemàtiques poderoses per comprendre la dinàmica passada dels ecosistemes marins i el seu canvi sota pressions acumulatives, i capaces de predir com els ecosistemes poden continuar desenvolupant-se en escenaris canviants. Els MEM s'utilitzen àmpliament en ciència i tenen una gran utilitat per assessorar polítiques i prendre decisions. No obstant això, malgrat dècades de progrés i de l'abundància de recomanacions científiques que poden implementar-se per aconseguir els objectius del Decenni dels Oceans, l'adopció real dels MEM en la gestió continua sent baixa.
Aquesta tesi explora les raons d'aquesta situació i sosté que l'adopció real dels MEM en les polítiques i la societat es veu en part obstaculitzada per un factor ignorat en gran part per les ciències marines: els problemes tècnics, institucionalitzats pel model actual de finançament acadèmic competitiu i orientat a resultats. La tesi es basa en quatre manuscrits, que exploren els desafiaments específics que planteja la dècada dels oceans i defineixen i implementen prototips funcionals que mostren que es pot salvar la bretxa entre la teoria i la pràctica.
El primer desafiament, permetre que els processos de decisió utilitzin MEM, s'aborda al manuscrit 1, on un MEM s'integra en una eina de suport a la decisió per a la planificació de l'espai marí, sense necessitat de control operatiu dels científics marins. El segon desafiament, relacionat amb la comunicació significativa de la sortida del MEM a audiències externes, s'aborda al manuscrit 2, en el qual un MEM s’interconnecta amb un motor de joc 3D per mostrar visualment el canvi ambiental. El desafiament final, garantir que els resultats del MEM siguin sòlids, es discuteix en els manuscrits 3 i 4. D'aquests, el primer explora les raons de la manca d'avaluacions sistemàtiques dels MEM i proposa un marc potencial per superar aquesta limitació persistent, mentre que el segon presenta un prototip funcional de codi obert d'aquest marc.
En conjunt, aquests estudis mostren que una enginyeria de programari relativament senzilla pot potenciar l'ús de MEM per als objectius de la dècada oceànica, l’EBM i més enllà. Aquesta tesi subratlla que els avanços científics i tècnics han d'anar de bracet, però també suggereix que el l'estancament actual no pot canviar tret que el desenvolupament i el suport a llarg termini a les eines sigui una prioritat de finançament. Encara que els prototips desenvolupats en aquesta tesi han de prendre´s com a idees que necessiten madurar-se més en futures investigacions, els treballs presentats mostren amb claredat que la modelització d'ecosistemes marins amb mitjans relativament senzills pot fer-se operativa per a la Dècada dels Oceans.
Finalment, aquest treball és una crida urgent a la comunitat mundial de modelització d'ecosistemes marins per repensar i remodelar com construïm, validem, calibrem i despleguem les nostres eines, amb l'objectiu d'arribar i implicar a les audiències que necessitin aquest assessorament.
(Español) Los ecosistemas marinos del mundo se están degradando por efecto de una amplia gama de presiones humanas combinadas que se intensifican y diversifican. Los enfoques de gestión basada en ecosistemas (EBM) han surgido como alternativa a la gestión ineficaz, transitando desde enfoques sectoriales basados en una lógica de arriba-abajo hacia procesos participativos apoyados en la ciencia que reconocen conexiones a nivel de todo el sistema y buscan equilibrar el beneficio económico con ecosistemas saludables y sostenibles. El Decenio de las Ciencias Oceánicas para el Desarrollo Sostenible de las Naciones Unidas ha trasladado a la comunidad oceanográfica el imperativo de transformar las ciencias marinas con enfoques holísticos, participativos, transparentes e inclusivos que involucren y sirvan a la sociedad.
Transformar las ciencias oceánicas actuales es difícil. Los modelos de ecosistemas marinos (MEM) son herramientas matemáticas poderosas para comprender la dinámica pasada de los ecosistemas marinos y su cambio bajo presiones acumulativas, y capaces de predecir cómo los ecosistemas pueden continuar desarrollándose en escenarios cambiantes. Los MEM se utilizan ampliamente en ciencia y tienen una gran utilidad para asesorar políticas y tomar decisiones. Sin embargo, a pesar de décadas de progreso y de la abundancia de recomendaciones en la literatura científica que pueden implementarse para alcanzar los objetivos del Decenio de los Océanos, la adopción real de los MEM en la gestión sigue siendo baja.
Esta tesis explora las razones de esta situación y sostiene que la adopción real de los MEM en las políticas y la sociedad se ve obstaculizada en parte por un factor ignorado en gran medida por las ciencias marinas: los problemas técnicos, institucionalizados por el modelo actual de financiación académica competitiva y orientada a resultados. La tesis se basa en cuatro manuscritos que exploran los desafíos específicos que plantea la Década de los Océanos y definen e implementan prototipos funcionales que muestran que se puede cerrar la brecha entre la teoría y la práctica.
El primer desafío, permitir que los procesos de decisión utilicen MEM, se aborda en el manuscrito 1, en el que un MEM se integra en una herramienta de apoyo a la toma de decisiones para la planificación espacial marina, sin necesidad de control operativo de los científicos marinos. El segundo desafío, relacionado con la comunicación efectiva de los resultados de MEM a audiencias externas, se aborda en el manuscrito 2, en el que un MEM se interconecta con un motor de juego 3D para mostrar visualmente el cambio ambiental. El desafío final, garantizar que los resultados del MEM sean sólidos, se analiza en los manuscritos 3 y 4. De estos, el primero explora las razones de la falta de evaluaciones sistemáticas del MEM y propone un marco para superar esta limitación persistente, mientras que el segundo presenta un prototipo funcional de código abierto de este marco.
En conjunto, estos estudios muestran que una ingeniería de software relativamente sencilla puede potenciar el uso de MEM hacia los objetivos de la Década de los Océanos, la EBM y más allá. Esta tesis subraya que los avances científicos y técnicos deben ir de la mano, pero también sugiere que el statu quo puede no cambiar a menos que el apoyo a largo plazo a las herramientas sea una prioridad de financiación. Por último, aunque los prototipos desarrollados en esta tesis deben tomarse como ideas que necesitan madurarse más, los trabajos presentados muestran inequívocamente que el campo de la modelización de ecosistemas marinos con medios relativamente simples puede hacerse operativo para el Decenio de los Océanos. Finalmente, este trabajo aspira a motivar a la comunidad mundial de modelización de ecosistemas marinos para repensar cómo construimos, validamos, calibramos e implementamos nuestras herramientas, con el objetivo de llegar e involucrar a las audiencias que necesiten ese asesoramiento.
2023
Journal Articles
35.
Fernández-Corredor, Elena; Ouled-Cheikh, Jazel; Navarro, Joan; Coll, Marta
An overview of the ecological roles of Mediterranean chondrichthyans through extinction scenarios Journal Article
In: Reviews in Fish Biology and Fisheries, 2023, ISSN: 0960-3166, 1573-5184.
Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags:
@article{fernandez-corredor_overview_2023,
title = {An overview of the ecological roles of Mediterranean chondrichthyans through extinction scenarios},
author = {Elena Fern\'{a}ndez-Corredor and Jazel Ouled-Cheikh and Joan Navarro and Marta Coll},
url = {https://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11160-023-09822-2},
doi = {10.1007/s11160-023-09822-2},
issn = {0960-3166, 1573-5184},
year = {2023},
date = {2023-12-01},
urldate = {2024-01-18},
journal = {Reviews in Fish Biology and Fisheries},
abstract = {Abstract
Fisheries, climate change, and habitat degradation are triggering the depletion of marine animal populations worldwide. The ecological impacts of the extinction of keystone species such as chondrichthyans can be far-reaching along the entire food web. Here, we first reviewed the trophic ecology of the 81 chondrichthyan species of the Mediterranean Sea through a literature search. We then compared prey composition among chondrichthyan species considering their taxonomic group, body size, and habitat. Finally, we represented the Mediterranean meta-web, emphasizing the chondrichthyan groups, using a qualitative network approach, and tested the vulnerability of the food web to selective removals of threatened chondrichthyan species by applying different extinction scenarios. We found trophic data for 53 species, which highlights the need to complement current knowledge gaps for many species. Diet dissimilarities between chondrichthyan taxa were detected, mainly due to the consumption of crustaceans and cephalopods. We found that large chondrichthyan species had a major contribution to the trophic dissimilarity and the omnivory of the food web when compared to small and medium-sized species. Conservation efforts within the Mediterranean chondrichthyan community may be particularly important for this group, as high levels of omnivory could moderate the occurrence of trophic cascades, while high trophic similarity can lead to less diverse ecosystems. This study provides a first overview of the ecological role of chondrichthyans in the Mediterranean and highlights the urgent research needed to increase the knowledge about these key species in the Mediterranean marine food web.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Abstract
Fisheries, climate change, and habitat degradation are triggering the depletion of marine animal populations worldwide. The ecological impacts of the extinction of keystone species such as chondrichthyans can be far-reaching along the entire food web. Here, we first reviewed the trophic ecology of the 81 chondrichthyan species of the Mediterranean Sea through a literature search. We then compared prey composition among chondrichthyan species considering their taxonomic group, body size, and habitat. Finally, we represented the Mediterranean meta-web, emphasizing the chondrichthyan groups, using a qualitative network approach, and tested the vulnerability of the food web to selective removals of threatened chondrichthyan species by applying different extinction scenarios. We found trophic data for 53 species, which highlights the need to complement current knowledge gaps for many species. Diet dissimilarities between chondrichthyan taxa were detected, mainly due to the consumption of crustaceans and cephalopods. We found that large chondrichthyan species had a major contribution to the trophic dissimilarity and the omnivory of the food web when compared to small and medium-sized species. Conservation efforts within the Mediterranean chondrichthyan community may be particularly important for this group, as high levels of omnivory could moderate the occurrence of trophic cascades, while high trophic similarity can lead to less diverse ecosystems. This study provides a first overview of the ecological role of chondrichthyans in the Mediterranean and highlights the urgent research needed to increase the knowledge about these key species in the Mediterranean marine food web.
Fisheries, climate change, and habitat degradation are triggering the depletion of marine animal populations worldwide. The ecological impacts of the extinction of keystone species such as chondrichthyans can be far-reaching along the entire food web. Here, we first reviewed the trophic ecology of the 81 chondrichthyan species of the Mediterranean Sea through a literature search. We then compared prey composition among chondrichthyan species considering their taxonomic group, body size, and habitat. Finally, we represented the Mediterranean meta-web, emphasizing the chondrichthyan groups, using a qualitative network approach, and tested the vulnerability of the food web to selective removals of threatened chondrichthyan species by applying different extinction scenarios. We found trophic data for 53 species, which highlights the need to complement current knowledge gaps for many species. Diet dissimilarities between chondrichthyan taxa were detected, mainly due to the consumption of crustaceans and cephalopods. We found that large chondrichthyan species had a major contribution to the trophic dissimilarity and the omnivory of the food web when compared to small and medium-sized species. Conservation efforts within the Mediterranean chondrichthyan community may be particularly important for this group, as high levels of omnivory could moderate the occurrence of trophic cascades, while high trophic similarity can lead to less diverse ecosystems. This study provides a first overview of the ecological role of chondrichthyans in the Mediterranean and highlights the urgent research needed to increase the knowledge about these key species in the Mediterranean marine food web.
36.
Fernández-Corredor, Elena; Ouled-Cheikh, Jazel; Navarro, Joan; Coll, Marta
An Overview of the Ecological Roles of Mediterranean Chondrichthyans through Extinction Scenarios Journal Article
In: Reviews in Fish Biology and Fisheries, 2023, ISSN: 0960-3166, 1573-5184.
Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags:
@article{fernandez-corredorOverviewEcologicalRoles2023,
title = {An Overview of the Ecological Roles of Mediterranean Chondrichthyans through Extinction Scenarios},
author = {Elena Fern\'{a}ndez-Corredor and Jazel Ouled-Cheikh and Joan Navarro and Marta Coll},
doi = {10.1007/s11160-023-09822-2},
issn = {0960-3166, 1573-5184},
year = {2023},
date = {2023-12-01},
urldate = {2024-01-18},
journal = {Reviews in Fish Biology and Fisheries},
abstract = {Abstract Fisheries, climate change, and habitat degradation are triggering the depletion of marine animal populations worldwide. The ecological impacts of the extinction of keystone species such as chondrichthyans can be far-reaching along the entire food web. Here, we first reviewed the trophic ecology of the 81 chondrichthyan species of the Mediterranean Sea through a literature search. We then compared prey composition among chondrichthyan species considering their taxonomic group, body size, and habitat. Finally, we represented the Mediterranean meta-web, emphasizing the chondrichthyan groups, using a qualitative network approach, and tested the vulnerability of the food web to selective removals of threatened chondrichthyan species by applying different extinction scenarios. We found trophic data for 53 species, which highlights the need to complement current knowledge gaps for many species. Diet dissimilarities between chondrichthyan taxa were detected, mainly due to the consumption of crustaceans and cephalopods. We found that large chondrichthyan species had a major contribution to the trophic dissimilarity and the omnivory of the food web when compared to small and medium-sized species. Conservation efforts within the Mediterranean chondrichthyan community may be particularly important for this group, as high levels of omnivory could moderate the occurrence of trophic cascades, while high trophic similarity can lead to less diverse ecosystems. This study provides a first overview of the ecological role of chondrichthyans in the Mediterranean and highlights the urgent research needed to increase the knowledge about these key species in the Mediterranean marine food web.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Abstract Fisheries, climate change, and habitat degradation are triggering the depletion of marine animal populations worldwide. The ecological impacts of the extinction of keystone species such as chondrichthyans can be far-reaching along the entire food web. Here, we first reviewed the trophic ecology of the 81 chondrichthyan species of the Mediterranean Sea through a literature search. We then compared prey composition among chondrichthyan species considering their taxonomic group, body size, and habitat. Finally, we represented the Mediterranean meta-web, emphasizing the chondrichthyan groups, using a qualitative network approach, and tested the vulnerability of the food web to selective removals of threatened chondrichthyan species by applying different extinction scenarios. We found trophic data for 53 species, which highlights the need to complement current knowledge gaps for many species. Diet dissimilarities between chondrichthyan taxa were detected, mainly due to the consumption of crustaceans and cephalopods. We found that large chondrichthyan species had a major contribution to the trophic dissimilarity and the omnivory of the food web when compared to small and medium-sized species. Conservation efforts within the Mediterranean chondrichthyan community may be particularly important for this group, as high levels of omnivory could moderate the occurrence of trophic cascades, while high trophic similarity can lead to less diverse ecosystems. This study provides a first overview of the ecological role of chondrichthyans in the Mediterranean and highlights the urgent research needed to increase the knowledge about these key species in the Mediterranean marine food web.
37.
Rodriguez-Perez, Ana; Tsikliras, Athanassios C.; Gal, Gideon; Steenbeek, Jeroen; Falk-Andersson, Jannike; Heymans, Johanna J.
Using Ecosystem Models to Inform Ecosystem-Based Fisheries Management in Europe: A Review of the Policy Landscape and Related Stakeholder Needs Journal Article
In: Frontiers in Marine Science, vol. 10, pp. 1196329, 2023, ISSN: 2296-7745.
Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags:
@article{rodriguez-perezUsingEcosystemModels2023,
title = {Using Ecosystem Models to Inform Ecosystem-Based Fisheries Management in Europe: A Review of the Policy Landscape and Related Stakeholder Needs},
author = {Ana Rodriguez-Perez and Athanassios C. Tsikliras and Gideon Gal and Jeroen Steenbeek and Jannike Falk-Andersson and Johanna J. Heymans},
doi = {10.3389/fmars.2023.1196329},
issn = {2296-7745},
year = {2023},
date = {2023-10-01},
urldate = {2023-10-31},
journal = {Frontiers in Marine Science},
volume = {10},
pages = {1196329},
abstract = {The need to implement an ecosystem-based fisheries management (EBFM) is enshrined in numerous regulations and strategies, at both global and European level. In practice, it is challenging to implement EBFM because it requires a complex evaluation of interlinked management effects and environmental and climate forcing on multi-species interactions, habitat status and human activities. Ecosystem models are one of the most critical research tools to inform EBFM, because they can integrate a wide variety of data, examine multiple and complex ecosystem interactions, and can make forecasts based on specific management scenarios. However, despite clear progress in marine ecosystem modelling, many models do not address policy goals and targets, which hinders uptake in policy. In this paper, we review the global and European policies and implementing bodies which directly or indirectly have a repercussion on the implementation of EBFM. Moreover, we highlight specific stakeholder needs related to the implementation of EBFM in European waters, which ecosystem models could help address. We review the policy commitments that drive these needs and the concerns raised by stakeholders during a survey and dedicated workshop. Key topics of concern were effects of climate change; bycatch; protected areas/fisheries restricted areas; and reducing the impacts of trawling. Stakeholders also provided specific questions related to these topics which ecosystem models could help address. Scenario and data results visualizations, as well as specific barriers in using the results of ecosystem models for decision-making are also discussed. A close involvement of stakeholders in scenario development and in designing graphical outputs is important, and can help overcome some of the main barriers that can hinder uptake of models and scenarios, including a lack of understanding of the benefits and limits of ecosystem models; insufficient involvement and interaction with stakeholders; and inadequate characterization of uncertainties.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
The need to implement an ecosystem-based fisheries management (EBFM) is enshrined in numerous regulations and strategies, at both global and European level. In practice, it is challenging to implement EBFM because it requires a complex evaluation of interlinked management effects and environmental and climate forcing on multi-species interactions, habitat status and human activities. Ecosystem models are one of the most critical research tools to inform EBFM, because they can integrate a wide variety of data, examine multiple and complex ecosystem interactions, and can make forecasts based on specific management scenarios. However, despite clear progress in marine ecosystem modelling, many models do not address policy goals and targets, which hinders uptake in policy. In this paper, we review the global and European policies and implementing bodies which directly or indirectly have a repercussion on the implementation of EBFM. Moreover, we highlight specific stakeholder needs related to the implementation of EBFM in European waters, which ecosystem models could help address. We review the policy commitments that drive these needs and the concerns raised by stakeholders during a survey and dedicated workshop. Key topics of concern were effects of climate change; bycatch; protected areas/fisheries restricted areas; and reducing the impacts of trawling. Stakeholders also provided specific questions related to these topics which ecosystem models could help address. Scenario and data results visualizations, as well as specific barriers in using the results of ecosystem models for decision-making are also discussed. A close involvement of stakeholders in scenario development and in designing graphical outputs is important, and can help overcome some of the main barriers that can hinder uptake of models and scenarios, including a lack of understanding of the benefits and limits of ecosystem models; insufficient involvement and interaction with stakeholders; and inadequate characterization of uncertainties.
38.
Smith, Mason; Chagaris, David; Paperno, Richard; Markwith, Scott
Tropical Estuarine Ecosystem Change under the Interacting Influences of Future Climate and Ecosystem Restoration Journal Article
In: Global Change Biology, vol. 29, no. 20, pp. 5850–5865, 2023, ISSN: 1354-1013, 1365-2486.
Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags:
@article{smithTropicalEstuarineEcosystem2023,
title = {Tropical Estuarine Ecosystem Change under the Interacting Influences of Future Climate and Ecosystem Restoration},
author = {Mason Smith and David Chagaris and Richard Paperno and Scott Markwith},
doi = {10.1111/gcb.16868},
issn = {1354-1013, 1365-2486},
year = {2023},
date = {2023-10-01},
urldate = {2024-01-18},
journal = {Global Change Biology},
volume = {29},
number = {20},
pages = {5850\textendash5865},
abstract = {Abstract One of the largest restoration programs in the world, the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan (CERP) aims to restore freshwater inputs to Everglades wetlands and the Florida Bay estuary. This study predicted how the Florida Bay ecosystem may respond to hydrological restoration from CERP within the context of contemporary projected impacts of sea-level rise (SLR) and increased future temperatures. A spatial\textendashtemporal dynamic model (Ecospace) was used to develop a spatiotemporal food web model incorporating environmental drivers of salinity, salinity variation, temperature, depth, distance to mangrove, and seagrass abundance and was used to predict responses of biomass, fisheries catch, and ecosystem resilience between current and future conditions. Changes in biomass between the current and future scenario suggest a suite of winners and losers, with many estuarine species increasing in both total biomass and spatial distribution. Notable biomass increases were predicted for important forage species, including bay anchovy (+32%), hardhead halfbeak (+19%), and pinfish (+31%), while decreases were predicted in mullet (-88%), clupeids (-55%), hardhead silverside (-15%), mojarras (-117%), and Portunid crabs (-16%). Increases in sportfish biomass included the angler-preferred spotted seatrout (+9%), red drum (+10%), and gray snapper (+8%), while decreases included sheepshead (-40%), Atlantic tarpon (-73%), and common snook (-507%). Ecosystem resilience and fisheries catch of angler-preferred species were predicted to improve in the future scenario in total, although a localized decline in resilience predicted for the Central Region may warrant further attention. Our results suggest the Florida Bay ecosystem is likely to achieve restoration benefits in spite of, and in some cases facilitated by, the projected future impacts from climate change due to the system's shallow depth and detrital dominance. The incorporation of climate impacts into long-term restoration planning using ecosystem modeling in similar systems facing unknown futures of SLR, warming seas, and shifting species distributions is recommended.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Abstract One of the largest restoration programs in the world, the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan (CERP) aims to restore freshwater inputs to Everglades wetlands and the Florida Bay estuary. This study predicted how the Florida Bay ecosystem may respond to hydrological restoration from CERP within the context of contemporary projected impacts of sea-level rise (SLR) and increased future temperatures. A spatial–temporal dynamic model (Ecospace) was used to develop a spatiotemporal food web model incorporating environmental drivers of salinity, salinity variation, temperature, depth, distance to mangrove, and seagrass abundance and was used to predict responses of biomass, fisheries catch, and ecosystem resilience between current and future conditions. Changes in biomass between the current and future scenario suggest a suite of winners and losers, with many estuarine species increasing in both total biomass and spatial distribution. Notable biomass increases were predicted for important forage species, including bay anchovy (+32%), hardhead halfbeak (+19%), and pinfish (+31%), while decreases were predicted in mullet (-88%), clupeids (-55%), hardhead silverside (-15%), mojarras (-117%), and Portunid crabs (-16%). Increases in sportfish biomass included the angler-preferred spotted seatrout (+9%), red drum (+10%), and gray snapper (+8%), while decreases included sheepshead (-40%), Atlantic tarpon (-73%), and common snook (-507%). Ecosystem resilience and fisheries catch of angler-preferred species were predicted to improve in the future scenario in total, although a localized decline in resilience predicted for the Central Region may warrant further attention. Our results suggest the Florida Bay ecosystem is likely to achieve restoration benefits in spite of, and in some cases facilitated by, the projected future impacts from climate change due to the system's shallow depth and detrital dominance. The incorporation of climate impacts into long-term restoration planning using ecosystem modeling in similar systems facing unknown futures of SLR, warming seas, and shifting species distributions is recommended.
39.
Rodriguez-Perez, Ana; Tsikliras, Athanassios C.; Gal, Gideon; Steenbeek, Jeroen; Falk-Andersson, Jannike; Heymans, Johanna J.
Using ecosystem models to inform ecosystem-based fisheries management in Europe: a review of the policy landscape and related stakeholder needs Journal Article
In: Frontiers in Marine Science, vol. 10, pp. 1196329, 2023, ISSN: 2296-7745.
Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags:
@article{rodriguez-perez_using_2023,
title = {Using ecosystem models to inform ecosystem-based fisheries management in Europe: a review of the policy landscape and related stakeholder needs},
author = {Ana Rodriguez-Perez and Athanassios C. Tsikliras and Gideon Gal and Jeroen Steenbeek and Jannike Falk-Andersson and Johanna J. Heymans},
url = {https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2023.1196329/full},
doi = {10.3389/fmars.2023.1196329},
issn = {2296-7745},
year = {2023},
date = {2023-10-01},
urldate = {2023-10-31},
journal = {Frontiers in Marine Science},
volume = {10},
pages = {1196329},
abstract = {The need to implement an ecosystem-based fisheries management (EBFM) is enshrined in numerous regulations and strategies, at both global and European level. In practice, it is challenging to implement EBFM because it requires a complex evaluation of interlinked management effects and environmental and climate forcing on multi-species interactions, habitat status and human activities. Ecosystem models are one of the most critical research tools to inform EBFM, because they can integrate a wide variety of data, examine multiple and complex ecosystem interactions, and can make forecasts based on specific management scenarios. However, despite clear progress in marine ecosystem modelling, many models do not address policy goals and targets, which hinders uptake in policy. In this paper, we review the global and European policies and implementing bodies which directly or indirectly have a repercussion on the implementation of EBFM. Moreover, we highlight specific stakeholder needs related to the implementation of EBFM in European waters, which ecosystem models could help address. We review the policy commitments that drive these needs and the concerns raised by stakeholders during a survey and dedicated workshop. Key topics of concern were effects of climate change; bycatch; protected areas/fisheries restricted areas; and reducing the impacts of trawling. Stakeholders also provided specific questions related to these topics which ecosystem models could help address. Scenario and data results visualizations, as well as specific barriers in using the results of ecosystem models for decision-making are also discussed. A close involvement of stakeholders in scenario development and in designing graphical outputs is important, and can help overcome some of the main barriers that can hinder uptake of models and scenarios, including a lack of understanding of the benefits and limits of ecosystem models; insufficient involvement and interaction with stakeholders; and inadequate characterization of uncertainties.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
The need to implement an ecosystem-based fisheries management (EBFM) is enshrined in numerous regulations and strategies, at both global and European level. In practice, it is challenging to implement EBFM because it requires a complex evaluation of interlinked management effects and environmental and climate forcing on multi-species interactions, habitat status and human activities. Ecosystem models are one of the most critical research tools to inform EBFM, because they can integrate a wide variety of data, examine multiple and complex ecosystem interactions, and can make forecasts based on specific management scenarios. However, despite clear progress in marine ecosystem modelling, many models do not address policy goals and targets, which hinders uptake in policy. In this paper, we review the global and European policies and implementing bodies which directly or indirectly have a repercussion on the implementation of EBFM. Moreover, we highlight specific stakeholder needs related to the implementation of EBFM in European waters, which ecosystem models could help address. We review the policy commitments that drive these needs and the concerns raised by stakeholders during a survey and dedicated workshop. Key topics of concern were effects of climate change; bycatch; protected areas/fisheries restricted areas; and reducing the impacts of trawling. Stakeholders also provided specific questions related to these topics which ecosystem models could help address. Scenario and data results visualizations, as well as specific barriers in using the results of ecosystem models for decision-making are also discussed. A close involvement of stakeholders in scenario development and in designing graphical outputs is important, and can help overcome some of the main barriers that can hinder uptake of models and scenarios, including a lack of understanding of the benefits and limits of ecosystem models; insufficient involvement and interaction with stakeholders; and inadequate characterization of uncertainties.
40.
Smith, Mason; Chagaris, David; Paperno, Richard; Markwith, Scott
Tropical estuarine ecosystem change under the interacting influences of future climate and ecosystem restoration Journal Article
In: Global Change Biology, vol. 29, no. 20, pp. 5850–5865, 2023, ISSN: 1354-1013, 1365-2486.
Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags:
@article{smith_tropical_2023,
title = {Tropical estuarine ecosystem change under the interacting influences of future climate and ecosystem restoration},
author = {Mason Smith and David Chagaris and Richard Paperno and Scott Markwith},
url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.16868},
doi = {10.1111/gcb.16868},
issn = {1354-1013, 1365-2486},
year = {2023},
date = {2023-10-01},
urldate = {2024-01-18},
journal = {Global Change Biology},
volume = {29},
number = {20},
pages = {5850\textendash5865},
abstract = {Abstract
One of the largest restoration programs in the world, the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan (CERP) aims to restore freshwater inputs to Everglades wetlands and the Florida Bay estuary. This study predicted how the Florida Bay ecosystem may respond to hydrological restoration from CERP within the context of contemporary projected impacts of sea‐level rise (SLR) and increased future temperatures. A spatial\textendashtemporal dynamic model (Ecospace) was used to develop a spatiotemporal food web model incorporating environmental drivers of salinity, salinity variation, temperature, depth, distance to mangrove, and seagrass abundance and was used to predict responses of biomass, fisheries catch, and ecosystem resilience between current and future conditions. Changes in biomass between the current and future scenario suggest a suite of winners and losers, with many estuarine species increasing in both total biomass and spatial distribution. Notable biomass increases were predicted for important forage species, including bay anchovy (+32%), hardhead halfbeak (+19%), and pinfish (+31%), while decreases were predicted in mullet (−88%), clupeids (−55%), hardhead silverside (−15%), mojarras (−117%), and Portunid crabs (−16%). Increases in sportfish biomass included the angler‐preferred spotted seatrout (+9%), red drum (+10%), and gray snapper (+8%), while decreases included sheepshead (−40%), Atlantic tarpon (−73%), and common snook (−507%). Ecosystem resilience and fisheries catch of angler‐preferred species were predicted to improve in the future scenario in total, although a localized decline in resilience predicted for the Central Region may warrant further attention. Our results suggest the Florida Bay ecosystem is likely to achieve restoration benefits in spite of, and in some cases facilitated by, the projected future impacts from climate change due to the system's shallow depth and detrital dominance. The incorporation of climate impacts into long‐term restoration planning using ecosystem modeling in similar systems facing unknown futures of SLR, warming seas, and shifting species distributions is recommended.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Abstract
One of the largest restoration programs in the world, the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan (CERP) aims to restore freshwater inputs to Everglades wetlands and the Florida Bay estuary. This study predicted how the Florida Bay ecosystem may respond to hydrological restoration from CERP within the context of contemporary projected impacts of sea‐level rise (SLR) and increased future temperatures. A spatial–temporal dynamic model (Ecospace) was used to develop a spatiotemporal food web model incorporating environmental drivers of salinity, salinity variation, temperature, depth, distance to mangrove, and seagrass abundance and was used to predict responses of biomass, fisheries catch, and ecosystem resilience between current and future conditions. Changes in biomass between the current and future scenario suggest a suite of winners and losers, with many estuarine species increasing in both total biomass and spatial distribution. Notable biomass increases were predicted for important forage species, including bay anchovy (+32%), hardhead halfbeak (+19%), and pinfish (+31%), while decreases were predicted in mullet (−88%), clupeids (−55%), hardhead silverside (−15%), mojarras (−117%), and Portunid crabs (−16%). Increases in sportfish biomass included the angler‐preferred spotted seatrout (+9%), red drum (+10%), and gray snapper (+8%), while decreases included sheepshead (−40%), Atlantic tarpon (−73%), and common snook (−507%). Ecosystem resilience and fisheries catch of angler‐preferred species were predicted to improve in the future scenario in total, although a localized decline in resilience predicted for the Central Region may warrant further attention. Our results suggest the Florida Bay ecosystem is likely to achieve restoration benefits in spite of, and in some cases facilitated by, the projected future impacts from climate change due to the system's shallow depth and detrital dominance. The incorporation of climate impacts into long‐term restoration planning using ecosystem modeling in similar systems facing unknown futures of SLR, warming seas, and shifting species distributions is recommended.
One of the largest restoration programs in the world, the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan (CERP) aims to restore freshwater inputs to Everglades wetlands and the Florida Bay estuary. This study predicted how the Florida Bay ecosystem may respond to hydrological restoration from CERP within the context of contemporary projected impacts of sea‐level rise (SLR) and increased future temperatures. A spatial–temporal dynamic model (Ecospace) was used to develop a spatiotemporal food web model incorporating environmental drivers of salinity, salinity variation, temperature, depth, distance to mangrove, and seagrass abundance and was used to predict responses of biomass, fisheries catch, and ecosystem resilience between current and future conditions. Changes in biomass between the current and future scenario suggest a suite of winners and losers, with many estuarine species increasing in both total biomass and spatial distribution. Notable biomass increases were predicted for important forage species, including bay anchovy (+32%), hardhead halfbeak (+19%), and pinfish (+31%), while decreases were predicted in mullet (−88%), clupeids (−55%), hardhead silverside (−15%), mojarras (−117%), and Portunid crabs (−16%). Increases in sportfish biomass included the angler‐preferred spotted seatrout (+9%), red drum (+10%), and gray snapper (+8%), while decreases included sheepshead (−40%), Atlantic tarpon (−73%), and common snook (−507%). Ecosystem resilience and fisheries catch of angler‐preferred species were predicted to improve in the future scenario in total, although a localized decline in resilience predicted for the Central Region may warrant further attention. Our results suggest the Florida Bay ecosystem is likely to achieve restoration benefits in spite of, and in some cases facilitated by, the projected future impacts from climate change due to the system's shallow depth and detrital dominance. The incorporation of climate impacts into long‐term restoration planning using ecosystem modeling in similar systems facing unknown futures of SLR, warming seas, and shifting species distributions is recommended.
41.
Gordó-Vilaseca, Cesc; Pecuchet, Laurene; Coll, Marta; Reiss, Henning; Jüterbock, Alexander; Costello, Mark John
Over 20% of Marine Fishes Shifting in the North and Barents Seas, but Not in the Norwegian Sea Journal Article
In: PeerJ, vol. 11, pp. e15801, 2023.
BibTeX | Tags:
@article{gordo-vilaseca20MarineFishes2023,
title = {Over 20% of Marine Fishes Shifting in the North and Barents Seas, but Not in the Norwegian Sea},
author = {Cesc Gord\'{o}-Vilaseca and Laurene Pecuchet and Marta Coll and Henning Reiss and Alexander J\"{u}terbock and Mark John Costello},
year = {2023},
date = {2023-01-01},
urldate = {2024-01-18},
journal = {PeerJ},
volume = {11},
pages = {e15801},
publisher = {PeerJ Inc.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
42.
Gordó-Vilaseca, Cesc; Stephenson, Fabrice; Coll, Marta; Lavin, Charles; Costello, Mark John
Three Decades of Increasing Fish Biodiversity across the Northeast Atlantic and the Arctic Ocean Journal Article
In: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 120, no. 4, pp. e2120869120, 2023, ISSN: 0027-8424, 1091-6490.
Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags:
@article{gordo-vilasecaThreeDecadesIncreasing2023,
title = {Three Decades of Increasing Fish Biodiversity across the Northeast Atlantic and the Arctic Ocean},
author = {Cesc Gord\'{o}-Vilaseca and Fabrice Stephenson and Marta Coll and Charles Lavin and Mark John Costello},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.2120869120},
issn = {0027-8424, 1091-6490},
year = {2023},
date = {2023-01-01},
urldate = {2024-01-18},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
volume = {120},
number = {4},
pages = {e2120869120},
abstract = {Observed range shifts of numerous species support predictions of climate change models that species will shift their distribution northward into the Arctic and sub-Arctic seas due to ocean warming. However, how this is affecting overall species richness is unclear. Here we analyze 20,670 scientific research trawls from the North Sea to the Arctic Ocean collected from 1994 to 2020, including 193 fish species. We found that demersal fish species richness at the local scale has doubled in some Arctic regions, including the Barents Sea, and increased at a lower rate at adjacent regions in the last three decades, followed by an increase in species richness and turnover at a regional scale. These changes in biodiversity correlated with an increase in sea bottom temperature. Within the study area, Arctic species' probability of occurrence generally declined over time. However, the increase in species from southern latitudes, together with an increase in some Arctic species, ultimately led to an enrichment of the Arctic and sub-Arctic marine fauna due to increasing water temperature consistent with climate change.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Observed range shifts of numerous species support predictions of climate change models that species will shift their distribution northward into the Arctic and sub-Arctic seas due to ocean warming. However, how this is affecting overall species richness is unclear. Here we analyze 20,670 scientific research trawls from the North Sea to the Arctic Ocean collected from 1994 to 2020, including 193 fish species. We found that demersal fish species richness at the local scale has doubled in some Arctic regions, including the Barents Sea, and increased at a lower rate at adjacent regions in the last three decades, followed by an increase in species richness and turnover at a regional scale. These changes in biodiversity correlated with an increase in sea bottom temperature. Within the study area, Arctic species' probability of occurrence generally declined over time. However, the increase in species from southern latitudes, together with an increase in some Arctic species, ultimately led to an enrichment of the Arctic and sub-Arctic marine fauna due to increasing water temperature consistent with climate change.
43.
de Luzinais, Vianney Guibourd; Pontavice, Hubert Du; Reygondeau, Gabriel; Barrier, Nicolas; Blanchard, Julia L.; Bornarel, Virginie; Büchner, Matthias; Cheung, William WL; Eddy, Tyler D.; Everett, Jason D.
Trophic Amplification: A Model Intercomparison of Climate Driven Changes in Marine Food Webs Journal Article
In: PloS one, vol. 18, no. 8, pp. e0287570, 2023.
BibTeX | Tags: Biomass, Boats, Climate Change, Food, Food web structure, Marine Ecosystems, Oceans, Signal amplification
@article{guibourddeluzinaisTrophicAmplificationModel2023,
title = {Trophic Amplification: A Model Intercomparison of Climate Driven Changes in Marine Food Webs},
author = {Vianney Guibourd de Luzinais and Hubert Du Pontavice and Gabriel Reygondeau and Nicolas Barrier and Julia L. Blanchard and Virginie Bornarel and Matthias B\"{u}chner and William WL Cheung and Tyler D. Eddy and Jason D. Everett},
year = {2023},
date = {2023-01-01},
urldate = {2024-01-18},
journal = {PloS one},
volume = {18},
number = {8},
pages = {e0287570},
publisher = {Public Library of Science San Francisco, CA USA},
keywords = {Biomass, Boats, Climate Change, Food, Food web structure, Marine Ecosystems, Oceans, Signal amplification},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
44.
Ofir, Eyal; Silver, Tal; Steenbeek, Jeroen G.; Shachar, Noam; Gal, Gideon
Applying the Safe Operating Space (SOS) Approach to Sustainable Commercial Fishing under Varying Lake Levels and Littoral Zone Conditions Journal Article
In: Fisheries, vol. 48, no. 3, pp. 107–120, 2023.
BibTeX | Tags:
@article{ofirApplyingSafeOperating2023,
title = {Applying the Safe Operating Space (SOS) Approach to Sustainable Commercial Fishing under Varying Lake Levels and Littoral Zone Conditions},
author = {Eyal Ofir and Tal Silver and Jeroen G. Steenbeek and Noam Shachar and Gideon Gal},
year = {2023},
date = {2023-01-01},
urldate = {2024-01-18},
journal = {Fisheries},
volume = {48},
number = {3},
pages = {107\textendash120},
publisher = {Wiley Online Library},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
45.
Ofir, Eyal; Corrales, Xavier; Coll, Marta; Heymans, Johanna; Goren, Menachem; Steenbeek, Jeroen; Amitai, Yael; Shachar, Noam; Gal, Gideon
Evaluation of Fisheries Management Policies in the Alien Species-Rich Eastern Mediterranean under Climate Change Journal Article
In: Frontiers in Marine Science, vol. 10, pp. 1155480, 2023.
BibTeX | Tags:
@article{ofirEvaluationFisheriesManagement2023,
title = {Evaluation of Fisheries Management Policies in the Alien Species-Rich Eastern Mediterranean under Climate Change},
author = {Eyal Ofir and Xavier Corrales and Marta Coll and Johanna Heymans and Menachem Goren and Jeroen Steenbeek and Yael Amitai and Noam Shachar and Gideon Gal},
year = {2023},
date = {2023-01-01},
urldate = {2024-01-18},
journal = {Frontiers in Marine Science},
volume = {10},
pages = {1155480},
publisher = {Frontiers Media SA},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
46.
Cerdà, Miquel Ortega; Cadenas, María Dolores Castro; Steenbeek, Jeroen; Coll, Marta
Identifying and Prioritizing Demersal Fisheries Restricted Areas Based on Combined Ecological and Fisheries Criteria: The Western Mediterranean Journal Article
In: 2023.
BibTeX | Tags:
@article{ortegacerdaIdentifyingPrioritizingDemersal2023,
title = {Identifying and Prioritizing Demersal Fisheries Restricted Areas Based on Combined Ecological and Fisheries Criteria: The Western Mediterranean},
author = {Miquel Ortega Cerd\`{a} and Mar\'{i}a Dolores Castro Cadenas and Jeroen Steenbeek and Marta Coll},
year = {2023},
date = {2023-01-01},
urldate = {2024-01-18},
publisher = {Elsevier},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
47.
Pennino, Maria Grazia; Rehren, Jennifer; Tifoura, Amina; Lojo, Davinia; Coll, Marta
New Approaches to Old Problems: How to Introduce Ecosystem Information into Modern Fisheries Management Advice Journal Article
In: Hydrobiologia, vol. 850, no. 6, pp. 1251–1260, 2023.
BibTeX | Tags:
@article{penninoNewApproachesOld2023,
title = {New Approaches to Old Problems: How to Introduce Ecosystem Information into Modern Fisheries Management Advice},
author = {Maria Grazia Pennino and Jennifer Rehren and Amina Tifoura and Davinia Lojo and Marta Coll},
year = {2023},
date = {2023-01-01},
urldate = {2024-01-18},
journal = {Hydrobiologia},
volume = {850},
number = {6},
pages = {1251\textendash1260},
publisher = {Springer},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
48.
Petza, Dimitra; Anastopoulos, Panagiotis; Kalogirou, Stefanos; Coll, Marta; Garcia, Serge; Kaiser, Michel; Koukourouvli, Nikoletta; Lourdi, Irene; Rice, Jake; Sciberras, Marija
Contribution of Area-Based Fisheries Management Measures to Fisheries Sustainability and Marine Conservation: A Global Scoping Review Journal Article
In: Reviews in Fish Biology and Fisheries, pp. 1–25, 2023.
BibTeX | Tags:
@article{petzaContributionAreabasedFisheries2023,
title = {Contribution of Area-Based Fisheries Management Measures to Fisheries Sustainability and Marine Conservation: A Global Scoping Review},
author = {Dimitra Petza and Panagiotis Anastopoulos and Stefanos Kalogirou and Marta Coll and Serge Garcia and Michel Kaiser and Nikoletta Koukourouvli and Irene Lourdi and Jake Rice and Marija Sciberras},
year = {2023},
date = {2023-01-01},
urldate = {2024-01-18},
journal = {Reviews in Fish Biology and Fisheries},
pages = {1\textendash25},
publisher = {Springer},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
49.
Püts, Miriam; Kempf, Alexander; Möllmann, Christian; Taylor, Marc
Trade-Offs between Fisheries, Offshore Wind Farms and Marine Protected Areas in the Southern North Sea–Winners, Losers and Effective Spatial Management Journal Article
In: Marine Policy, vol. 152, pp. 105574, 2023.
BibTeX | Tags:
@article{putsTradeoffsFisheriesOffshore2023,
title = {Trade-Offs between Fisheries, Offshore Wind Farms and Marine Protected Areas in the Southern North Sea\textendashWinners, Losers and Effective Spatial Management},
author = {Miriam P\"{u}ts and Alexander Kempf and Christian M\"{o}llmann and Marc Taylor},
year = {2023},
date = {2023-01-01},
urldate = {2024-01-18},
journal = {Marine Policy},
volume = {152},
pages = {105574},
publisher = {Elsevier},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
50.
Sánchez-Zulueta, Paula; Valls, María; Guijarro, Beatriz; Torres, María Ángeles; Zapata, María Ángeles; Coll, Marta; Corrales, Xavier; Andonegi, Eider; Díaz-Valdés, Marta; Massutí, Enric
Trophic Structure and Fishing Impacts on an Oligotrophic Ecosystem in the Western Mediterranean: The Balearic Islands Journal Article
In: Frontiers in Marine Science, 2023.
BibTeX | Tags:
@article{sanchez-zuluetaTrophicStructureFishing2023,
title = {Trophic Structure and Fishing Impacts on an Oligotrophic Ecosystem in the Western Mediterranean: The Balearic Islands},
author = {Paula S\'{a}nchez-Zulueta and Mar\'{i}a Valls and Beatriz Guijarro and Mar\'{i}a \'{A}ngeles Torres and Mar\'{i}a \'{A}ngeles Zapata and Marta Coll and Xavier Corrales and Eider Andonegi and Marta D\'{i}az-Vald\'{e}s and Enric Massut\'{i}},
year = {2023},
date = {2023-01-01},
urldate = {2024-01-18},
journal = {Frontiers in Marine Science},
publisher = {Frontiers Media},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Contact
Ecopath International Initiative
Barcelona, Spain
PIC 958090341
info@ecopathinternational.org
Ecopath International Initiative is a not-for-profit research organization
Photo credits
© Marta Coll
© Jeroen Steenbeek
© Jeroen Steenbeek