@article{guibourddeluzinaisTrophicAmplificationModel2023,

title = {Trophic Amplification: A Model Intercomparison of Climate Driven Changes in Marine Food Webs},

author = {Vianney Guibourd de Luzinais and Hubert Du Pontavice and Gabriel Reygondeau and Nicolas Barrier and Julia L. Blanchard and Virginie Bornarel and Matthias B\"{u}chner and William WL Cheung and Tyler D. Eddy and Jason D. Everett},

year  = {2023},

date = {2023-01-01},

urldate = {2024-01-18},

journal = {PloS one},

volume = {18},

number = {8},

pages = {e0287570},

publisher = {Public Library of Science San Francisco, CA USA},

keywords = {Biomass, Boats, Climate Change, Food, Food web structure, Marine Ecosystems, Oceans, Signal amplification},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{guibourd_de_luzinais_trophic_2023,

title = {Trophic amplification: A model intercomparison of climate driven changes in marine food webs},

author = {Vianney Guibourd de Luzinais and Hubert Du Pontavice and Gabriel Reygondeau and Nicolas Barrier and Julia L. Blanchard and Virginie Bornarel and Matthias B\"{u}chner and William WL Cheung and Tyler D. Eddy and Jason D. Everett},

url = {https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0287570},

year  = {2023},

date = {2023-01-01},

urldate = {2024-01-18},

journal = {PloS one},

volume = {18},

number = {8},

pages = {e0287570},

note = {Publisher: Public Library of Science San Francisco, CA USA},

keywords = {Biomass, Boats, Climate Change, Food, Food web structure, Marine Ecosystems, Oceans, Signal amplification},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{ramirez_overfishing_2022,

title = {Overfishing species on the move may burden seafood provision in the low-latitude Atlantic Ocean},

author = {Francisco Ram\'{i}rez and Lynne J. Shannon and Ronaldo Angelini and Jeroen Steenbeek and Marta Coll},

url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048969722025761},

doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.155480},

issn = {0048-9697},

year  = {2022},

date = {2022-08-01},

urldate = {2022-05-11},

journal = {Science of The Total Environment},

volume = {836},

pages = {155480},

abstract = {Climate and fisheries interact, often synergistically, and may challenge marine ecosystem functioning and management, along with seafood provision. Here, we spatially combine highly resolved assessments of climate-driven changes in optimal environmental conditions (i.e., optimal habitats) for the pelagic fish community with available industrial fishery data to identify highly impacted inshore areas in the Central and Southern Atlantic Ocean. Overall, optimal habitat availability remained stable or decreased over recent decades for most commercial, small and medium size pelagic species, particularly in low-latitude regions. We also find a worrying overlap of these areas with fishing hotspots. Nations near the Equator (particularly along the African coast) have been doubly impacted by climate and industrial fisheries, with ultimate consequences on fish stocks and ecosystems as a whole. Management and conservation actions are urgently required to prevent species depletions and ensure seafood provisioning in these highly impacted, and often socioeconomically constrained areas. These actions may include redistributing fishing pressure and reducing it in local areas where climate forcing is particularly high, balancing resource exploitation and the conservation of marine life-supporting services in the face of climate change.},

keywords = {Climate Change, fisheries, Safe Operating Space, Seafood provisioning, Shifting distribution, Small and medium size pelagic fish},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{ramirezOverfishingSpeciesMove2022,

title = {Overfishing Species on the Move May Burden Seafood Provision in the Low-Latitude Atlantic Ocean},

author = {Francisco Ram\'{i}rez and Lynne J. Shannon and Ronaldo Angelini and Jeroen Steenbeek and Marta Coll},

doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.155480},

issn = {0048-9697},

year  = {2022},

date = {2022-08-01},

urldate = {2022-05-11},

journal = {Science of The Total Environment},

volume = {836},

pages = {155480},

abstract = {Climate and fisheries interact, often synergistically, and may challenge marine ecosystem functioning and management, along with seafood provision. Here, we spatially combine highly resolved assessments of climate-driven changes in optimal environmental conditions (i.e., optimal habitats) for the pelagic fish community with available industrial fishery data to identify highly impacted inshore areas in the Central and Southern Atlantic Ocean. Overall, optimal habitat availability remained stable or decreased over recent decades for most commercial, small and medium size pelagic species, particularly in low-latitude regions. We also find a worrying overlap of these areas with fishing hotspots. Nations near the Equator (particularly along the African coast) have been doubly impacted by climate and industrial fisheries, with ultimate consequences on fish stocks and ecosystems as a whole. Management and conservation actions are urgently required to prevent species depletions and ensure seafood provisioning in these highly impacted, and often socioeconomically constrained areas. These actions may include redistributing fishing pressure and reducing it in local areas where climate forcing is particularly high, balancing resource exploitation and the conservation of marine life-supporting services in the face of climate change.},

keywords = {Climate Change, fisheries, Safe Operating Space, Seafood provisioning, Shifting distribution, Small and medium size pelagic fish},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{cinnerPotentialImpactsClimate2022,

title = {Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture and Fisheries Production in 72 Tropical Coastal Communities},

author = {Joshua E. Cinner and Iain R. Caldwell and Lauric Thiault and John Ben and Julia L. Blanchard and Marta Coll and Amy Diedrich and Tyler D. Eddy and Jason D. Everett and Christian Folberth and Didier Gascuel and Jerome Guiet and Georgina G. Gurney and Ryan F. Heneghan and Jonas J\"{a}germeyr and Narriman Jiddawi and Rachael Lahari and John Kuange and Wenfeng Liu and Olivier Maury and Christoph M\"{u}ller and Camilla Novaglio and Juliano Palacios-Abrantes and Colleen M. Petrik and Ando Rabearisoa and Derek P. Tittensor and Andrew Wamukota and Richard Pollnac},

doi = {10.1038/s41467-022-30991-4},

issn = {2041-1723},

year  = {2022},

date = {2022-07-01},

urldate = {2024-01-18},

journal = {Nature Communications},

volume = {13},

number = {1},

pages = {3530},

publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},

abstract = {Climate change is expected to profoundly affect key food production sectors, including fisheries and agriculture. However, the potential impacts of climate change on these sectors are rarely considered jointly, especially below national scales, which can mask substantial variability in how communities will be affected. Here, we combine socioeconomic surveys of 3,008 households and intersectoral multi-model simulation outputs to conduct a sub-national analysis of the potential impacts of climate change on fisheries and agriculture in 72 coastal communities across five Indo-Pacific countries (Indonesia, Madagascar, Papua New Guinea, Philippines, and Tanzania). Our study reveals three key findings: First, overall potential losses to fisheries are higher than potential losses to agriculture. Second, while most locations ($\>$ 2/3) will experience potential losses to both fisheries and agriculture simultaneously, climate change mitigation could reduce the proportion of places facing that double burden. Third, potential impacts are more likely in communities with lower socioeconomic status.},

keywords = {Climate Change, Climate-change ecology},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{heymans_ocean_2020b,

title = {The Ocean Decade: A True Ecosystem Modeling Challenge},

author = {J. J. Heymans and A. Bundy and V. Christensen and M. Coll and K. de Mutsert and E. A. Fulton and C. Piroddi and Y-J Shin and J. Steenbeek and M. Travers-Trolet},

url = {https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2020.554573/full?utm_source=F-NTF\&utm_medium=EMLX\&utm_campaign=PRD_FEOPS_20170000_ARTICLE},

doi = {10.3389/fmars.2020.554573},

issn = {2296-7745},

year  = {2020},

date = {2020-01-01},

urldate = {2020-01-01},

journal = {Frontiers in Marine Science},

volume = {7},

note = {Publisher: Frontiers},

keywords = {Climate Change, Ecosystem based management (EBM), ecosystem modelling, Ocean Decade, Sustainable development goals (SDG)},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{collAdvancingGlobalEcological2020,

title = {Advancing Global Ecological Modelling Capabilities to Simulate Future Trajectories of Change in Marine Ecosystems},

author = {Marta Coll and Jeroen Steenbeek and Maria Grazia Pennino and Joe Buszowski and Kristin Kaschner and Heike K. Lotze and Yannick Rousseau and Derek P. Tittensor and Carl Walters and Reg Alan Watson and Villy Christensen},

doi = {10.3389/fmars.2020.567877},

issn = {2296-7745},

year  = {2020},

date = {2020-01-01},

urldate = {2020-08-13},

journal = {Frontiers in Marine Science},

volume = {7},

publisher = {Frontiers},

abstract = {Considerable effort is being deployed to predict the impacts of climate change and anthropogenic activities on the ocean's biophysical environment, biodiversity, and natural resources to better understand how marine ecosystems and provided services to humans are likely to change and explore alternative pathways and options. We present an updated version of EcoOcean (v2), a spatial-temporal ecosystem modelling complex of the global ocean that spans food-web dynamics from primary producers to top predators. Advancements include an enhanced ability to reproduce spatial-temporal ecosystem dynamics by linking species productivity, distributions, and trophic interactions to the impacts of climate change and worldwide fisheries. The updated modelling platform is used to simulate past and future scenarios of change, where we quantify the impacts of alternative configurations of the ecological model, responses to climate-change scenarios, and the additional impacts of fishing. Climate-change scenarios are obtained from two Earth-System Models (ESMs, GFDL-ESM2M and IPSL-CMA5-LR) and two contrasting emission pathways (RCPs 2.6 and 8.5) for historical (1950-2005) and future (2006-2100) periods. Standardized ecological indicators and biomasses of selected species groups are used to compare simulations. Results show how future ecological trajectories are sensitive to alternative configurations of EcoOcean, and yield moderate differences when looking at ecological indicators and larger differences for biomasses of species groups. Ecological trajectories are also sensitive to environmental drivers from alternative ESM outputs and RCPs, and show spatial variability and more severe changes when IPSL and RCP 8.5 are used. Under a non-fishing configuration, larger organisms show decreasing trends, while smaller organisms show mixed or increasing results. Fishing intensifies the negative effects predicted by climate change, again stronger under IPSL and RCP 8.5, which results in stronger biomass declines for species already losing under climate change, or dampened positive impacts for those increasing. Several species groups that win under climate change become losers under combined impacts, while only a few (small benthopelagic fish and cephalopods) species are projected to show positive biomass changes under cumulative impacts. EcoOcean v2 can contribute to the quantification of cumulative impact assessments of multiple stressors and of plausible ocean-based solutions to prevent, mitigate and adapt to global change.},

keywords = {Climate Change, Fishing, Future trajectories, Marine Ecosystems, projections},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{heymansOceanDecadeTrue2020,

title = {The Ocean Decade: A True Ecosystem Modeling Challenge},

author = {Johanna J. Heymans and Alida Bundy and Villy Christensen and Marta Coll and Kim Mutsert and Elizabeth A. Fulton and Chiara Piroddi and Yunne-Jai Shin and Jeroen Steenbeek and Morgane Travers-Trolet},

doi = {10.3389/fmars.2020.554573},

issn = {2296-7745},

year  = {2020},

date = {2020-01-01},

urldate = {2020-09-24},

journal = {Frontiers in Marine Science},

volume = {7},

publisher = {Frontiers},

abstract = {The Ocean Decade: A True Ecosystem Modeling Challenge},

keywords = {Climate Change, Ecosystem based management (EBM), ecosystem modelling, Ocean Decade, Sustainable development goals (SDG)},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{petrikLargePelagicFish2020,

title = {Large Pelagic Fish Are Most Sensitive to Climate Change Despite Pelagification of Ocean Food Webs},

author = {Colleen M. Petrik and Charles A. Stock and Ken H. Andersen and P. Dani\"{e}l Denderen and James R. Watson},

doi = {10.3389/fmars.2020.588482},

issn = {2296-7745},

year  = {2020},

date = {2020-01-01},

urldate = {2020-12-03},

journal = {Frontiers in Marine Science},

volume = {7},

publisher = {Frontiers},

abstract = {Global climate change is expected to impact ocean ecosystems through increases in temperature, decreases in pH and oxygen, increased stratification, with subsequent declines in primary productivity. These impacts propagate through the food chain leading to amplified effects on secondary producers and higher trophic levels. Similarly, climate change may disproportionately affect different species, with impacts depending on their ecological niche. To investigate how global environmental change will alter fish assemblages and productivity, we used a spatially explicit mechanistic model of the three main fish functional types reflected in fisheries catches (FEISTY) coupled to an earth system model (GFDL-ESM2M) to make projections out to 2100. We additionally explored the sensitivity of projections to uncertainties in widely used metabolic allometries and their temperature dependence. When integrated globally, the biomass and production of all types of fish decreased under a high emissions scenario (RCP 8.5) compared to mean contemporary conditions. Projections also revealed strong increases in the ratio of pelagic zooplankton production to benthic production, a dominant driver of the abundance of large pelagic fish vs. demersal fish under historical conditions. Increases in this ratio led to a "pelagification" of ecosystems exemplified by shifts from benthic-based food webs towards pelagic-based ones. The resulting pelagic systems, however, were dominated by forage fish, as large pelagic fish suffered from increasing metabolic demands in a warming ocean and from declines in zooplankton productivity that were amplified at higher trophic levels. Patterns of relative change between functional types were robust to uncertainty in metabolic allometries and temperature dependence, though projections of the large pelagic fish had the greatest uncertainty. The same accumulation of trophic impacts that underlies the amplification of productivity trends at higher trophic levels propagates to the projection spread, creating an acutely uncertain future for the ocean's largest predatory fish.},

keywords = {Climate Change, Fish and fisheries, Functional types, marine ecosystem model, Metabolism, Secondary Production, Trait-based model, trophic amplification},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}