@article{blanchard_detecting_2024,

title = {Detecting, Attributing, and Projecting Global Marine Ecosystem and Fisheries Change: FishMIP 2.0},

author = {Julia L. Blanchard and Camilla Novaglio and Olivier Maury and Cheryl S. Harrison and Colleen M. Petrik and Denisse Fierro‐Arcos and Kelly Ortega‐Cisneros and Andrea Bryndum‐Buchholz and Tyler D. Eddy and Ryan Heneghan and Kelsey Roberts and Jacob Schewe and Daniele Bianchi and Jerome Guiet and P. Daniel Van Denderen and Juliano Palacios‐Abrantes and Xiao Liu and Charles A. Stock and Yannick Rousseau and Matthias B\"{u}chner and Ezekiel O. Adekoya and Cathy Bulman and William Cheung and Villy Christensen and Marta Coll and Leonardo Capitani and Samik Datta and Elizabeth A. Fulton and Alba Fuster and Victoria Garza and Matthieu Lengaigne and Max Lindmark and Kieran Murphy and Jazel Ouled‐Cheikh and Sowdamini S. Prasad and Ricardo Oliveros‐Ramos and Jonathan C. Reum and Nina Rynne and Kim J. N. Scherrer and Yunne‐Jai Shin and Jeroen Steenbeek and Phoebe Woodworth‐Jefcoats and Yan‐Lun Wu and Derek P. Tittensor},

url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2023EF004402},

doi = {10.1029/2023EF004402},

issn = {2328-4277, 2328-4277},

year  = {2024},

date = {2024-12-01},

urldate = {2025-01-08},

journal = {Earth's Future},

volume = {12},

number = {12},

pages = {e2023EF004402},

abstract = {Abstract 

 There is an urgent need for models that can robustly detect past and project future ecosystem changes and risks to the services that they provide to people. The Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (FishMIP) was established to develop model ensembles for projecting long‐term impacts of climate change on fisheries and marine ecosystems while informing policy at spatio‐temporal scales relevant to the Inter‐Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) framework. While contributing FishMIP models have improved over time, large uncertainties in projections remain, particularly in coastal and shelf seas where most of the world's fisheries occur. Furthermore, previous FishMIP climate impact projections have been limited by a lack of global standardized historical fishing data, low resolution of coastal processes, and uneven capabilities across the FishMIP community to dynamically model fisheries. These features are needed to evaluate how reliably the FishMIP ensemble captures past ecosystem states ‐ a crucial step for building confidence in future projections. To address these issues, we have developed FishMIP 2.0 comprising a two‐track framework for: (a) Model evaluation and attribution of past changes and (b) future climate and socioeconomic scenario projections. Key advances include improved historical climate forcing, which captures oceanographic features not previously resolved, and standardized global fishing forcing to test fishing effects systematically across models. FishMIP 2.0 is a crucial step toward a detection and attribution framework for changing marine ecosystems and toward enhanced policy relevance through increased confidence in future ensemble projections. Our results will help elucidate pathways toward achieving sustainable development goals. 

 , 

 Plain Language Summary 

 Historically, the largest human impact on the ocean has been overfishing. In the future, it may become climate change. To understand and predict how human activities will affect marine ecosystems in the future, we need models that can be used to accurately detect and attribute the effects of drivers and their impact on past ecosystem trajectories. By doing this, we will build confidence in the ability of sets of these models (“ensembles”) to capture future change. FishMIP 2.0 provides a way to construct and test these ensembles and scenarios of both changing climate and socio‐economic conditions, to better assess how future fisheries could adapt over time. 

 , 

 Key Points 

 Detecting, attributing, and projecting climate change risks on marine ecosystems and fisheries requires models with realistic dynamics 

 FishMIP 2.0 incorporates fishing and climate impact trajectories to assess models and detect past ecosystem changes more accurately 

 Our framework will help support model improvement, building confidence in future projections to underpin policy advice},

keywords = {EcoOcean, FishMIP},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{eddy_global_2024,

title = {Global and regional marine ecosystem model climate change projections reveal key uncertainties},

author = {Tyler D. Eddy and Ryan F. Heneghan and Andrea Bryndum-Buchholz and Beth Fulton and Cheryl Shannon Harrison and Derek P. Tittensor and Heike K. Lotze and Kelly Ortega-Cisneros and Camilla Novaglio and Daniele Bianchi},

url = {https://hal.science/hal-04811335/},

year  = {2024},

date = {2024-01-01},

urldate = {2025-01-08},

keywords = {EcoOcean, Ecospace, FishMIP},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{ortega-cisneros_integrated_2024,

title = {An Integrated Global-to-Regional Scale Workflow for Simulating Climate Change Impacts on Marine Ecosystems},

author = {Kelly Ortega-Cisneros and L. Denisse Fierro Arcos and Camilla Novaglio and Phoebe Woodworth-Jefcoats and Tyler Eddy and Marta Coll and Beth Fulton and Ricardo Oliveros-Ramos and Jonathan Charles Reum and Yunne-Jai Shin},

url = {https://essopenarchive.org/doi/full/10.22541/essoar.171587234.44707846},

year  = {2024},

date = {2024-01-01},

urldate = {2025-01-08},

journal = {Authorea Preprints},

note = {Publisher: Authorea},

keywords = {FishMIP},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{rynne_skill_2024,

title = {A skill assessment framework for the fisheries and marine ecosystem model intercomparison project},

author = {Nina Rynne and Camilla Novaglio and Julia L. Blanchard and Daniele Bianchi and Villy Christensen and Marta Coll and Jerome Guiet and Jeroen Gerhard Steenbeek and Andrea Bryndum-Buchholz and Tyler Eddy},

url = {https://essopenarchive.org/doi/full/10.22541/essoar.171580191.17895127},

year  = {2024},

date = {2024-01-01},

urldate = {2025-01-08},

journal = {Authorea Preprints},

note = {Publisher: Authorea},

keywords = {EcoOcean, FishMIP, systematic skill assessments},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{heneghan_disentangling_2021,

title = {Disentangling diverse responses to climate change among global marine ecosystem models},

author = {R. F. Heneghan and E. D. Galbraith and J. L. Blanchard and C. Harrison and N. Barrier and C. Bulman and W. W. L. Cheung and M. Coll and T. D. Eddy and M. Erauskin-Extramiana and J. D. Everett and J. A. Fernandes-Salvador and D. Gascuel and J. Guiet and O. Maury and J. Palacios-Abrantes and C. Petrik and H. Pontavice and A. J. Richardson and J. Steenbeek and T. C. Tai and J. Volkholz and P. A. Woodworth-Jefcoats and D. P. Tittensor},

url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0079661121001440},

doi = {10.1016/j.pocean.2021.102659},

issn = {0079-6611},

year  = {2021},

date = {2021-08-01},

urldate = {2021-08-01},

journal = {Progress in Oceanography},

pages = {102659},

keywords = {Climatic change, EcoOcean, Fishery oceanography, FishMIP, Marine ecology, Modelling, Structural uncertainty},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{heneghanDisentanglingDiverseResponses2021,

title = {Disentangling Diverse Responses to Climate Change among Global Marine Ecosystem Models},

author = {Ryan F. Heneghan and Eric Galbraith and Julia L. Blanchard and Cheryl Harrison and Nicolas Barrier and Catherine Bulman and William Cheung and Marta Coll and Tyler D. Eddy and Maite Erauskin-Extramiana and Jason D. Everett and Jose A. Fernandes-Salvador and Didier Gascuel and Jerome Guiet and Olivier Maury and Juliano Palacios-Abrantes and Colleen M. Petrik and Hubert Pontavice and Anthony J. Richardson and Jeroen Steenbeek and Travis C. Tai and Jan Volkholz and Phoebe A. Woodworth-Jefcoats and Derek P. Tittensor},

doi = {10.1016/j.pocean.2021.102659},

issn = {0079-6611},

year  = {2021},

date = {2021-08-01},

urldate = {2021-08-12},

journal = {Progress in Oceanography},

pages = {102659},

abstract = {Climate change is warming the ocean and impacting lower trophic level (LTL) organisms. Marine ecosystem models can provide estimates of how these changes will propagate to larger animals and impact societal services such as fisheries, but at present these estimates vary widely. A better understanding of what drives this inter-model variation will improve our ability to project fisheries and other ecosystem services into the future, while also helping to identify uncertainties in process understanding. Here, we explore the mechanisms that underlie the diversity of responses to changes in temperature and LTLs in eight global marine ecosystem models from the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (FishMIP). Temperature and LTL impacts on total consumer biomass and ecosystem structure (defined as the relative change of small and large organism biomass) were isolated using a comparative experimental protocol. Total model biomass varied between -35% to +3% in response to warming, and -17% to +15% in response to LTL changes. There was little consensus about the spatial redistribution of biomass or changes in the balance between small and large organisms (ecosystem structure) in response to warming, and LTL impacts on total consumer biomass varied depending on the choice of LTL forcing terms. Overall, climate change impacts on consumer biomass and ecosystem structure are well approximated by the sum of temperature and LTL impacts, indicating an absence of nonlinear interaction between the models' drivers. Our results highlight a lack of theoretical clarity about how to represent fundamental ecological mechanisms, most importantly how temperature impacts scale from individual to ecosystem level, and the need to better understand the two-way coupling between LTL organisms and consumers. We finish by identifying future research needs to strengthen global marine ecosystem modelling and improve projections of climate change impacts.},

keywords = {Climatic change, Fishery oceanography, FishMIP, Marine ecology, Modelling, Structural uncertainty},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}