@article{roberts_potential_2026,

title = {Potential Impacts of Climate Interventions on Marine Ecosystems},

author = {Kelsey E. Roberts and Tyler Rohr and Morgan R. Raven and Michael S. Diamond and Daniele Visioni and Ben Kravitz and Ryan Heneghan and Colleen M. Petrik and Daniele Bianchi and Kelly Ortega‐Cisneros and Monica A. Morrison and Vanessa Van Heerden and Nicola A. Wiseman and Gouri Anil and Zachary J. Cannizzo and Marta Coll and Joshua Coupe and Ryan Freedman and Kristen Krumhardt and Lester Kwiatkowski and Nicole S. Lovenduski and Jessica Y. Luo and Holly C. Olivarez and Alan Robock and Jeroen Steenbeek and Cheryl S. Harrison},

url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2024RG000876},

doi = {10.1029/2024RG000876},

issn = {8755-1209, 1944-9208},

year  = {2026},

date = {2026-03-01},

urldate = {2026-03-01},

journal = {Reviews of Geophysics},

volume = {64},

number = {1},

pages = {e2024RG000876},

abstract = {Abstract 

 Rising global temperatures pose significant risks to marine ecosystems, biodiversity, and fisheries. Recent comprehensive assessments suggest that large‐scale mitigation efforts to limit warming are falling short, and all feasible future climate projections, including those that represent optimistic emissions reductions, exceed the Paris Agreement\'s 1.5°C or 2° warming targets during this century. While avoiding further CO2 emissions remains the most effective way to prevent environmental destabilization, interest is growing in climate interventions\textemdashdeliberate, large‐scale manipulations of the environment aimed at reducing global warming. These include carbon dioxide removal (CDR) to reduce atmospheric CO2 concentrations over time, and solar radiation modification (SRM), which reflects sunlight to lower surface temperatures but does not address root CO2 causes. The effects of these interventions on marine ecosystems, both direct and in combination with ongoing climate change, remain highly uncertain. Given the ocean\'s central role in regulating Earth\'s climate and supporting global food security, understanding these potential effects is crucial. This review provides an overview of proposed intervention methodologies for marine CDR and SRM and outlines the potential trade‐offs and knowledge gaps associated with their impacts on marine ecosystems. Climate interventions have the potential to reduce warming‐driven impacts, but could also alter marine food systems, biodiversity and ecosystem function. Effects will vary by pathway, scale, and regional context. Pathway‐specific impact assessments are thus crucial to quantify trade‐offs between plausible intervention scenarios as well as to identify their expected impacts on marine ecosystems in order to prioritize scaling efforts for low‐risk pathways and avoid high‐risk scenarios. 

 

 Plain Language Summary 

 A rise in global temperatures from 1.5 to 2°C or above historical levels threatens marine life, ecosystems, biodiversity, and the sustainability of fisheries. Recent studies highlight that current efforts to keep warming within critical limits are insufficient, and even optimistic future climate scenarios predict that the 1.5°C threshold established by the Paris Agreement will be surpassed. In this context, climate intervention strategies are being explored as ways to potentially reduce the worsening effects of climate change and complement, not replace, decarbonization efforts. These strategies aim to either remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere or reflect sunlight back into space to cool the Earth. While currently an understudied area of research, these methods could have profound impacts on the ocean, including changes to sea surface temperature and nutrient cycling, which in turn affect the abundance, distribution, and diversity of marine life as well as the human communities that rely on marine resources. This review synthesizes current research on the climate intervention strategies that are most likely to have direct impacts on the marine environment, emphasizing knowledge gaps as they relate to the potential impacts on marine ecosystems and the need for improved predictive models. 

 , 

 Key Points 

 Climate intervention research is expanding as current mitigation efforts to limit warming below crucial targets are falling short 

 Substantial knowledge gaps exist on the potential impacts of climate intervention strategies on marine ecological systems 

 We review the potential impacts of climate intervention on marine ecosystems, including biotic and abiotic factors},

keywords = {climate change impacts, climate intervention, EcoOcean, FishMIP, global ecosystem modeling},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{lotzeGlobalEnsembleProjections2019,

title = {Global Ensemble Projections Reveal Trophic Amplification of Ocean Biomass Declines with Climate Change},

author = {Heike K. Lotze and Derek P. Tittensor and Andrea Bryndum-Buchholz and Tyler D. Eddy and William W. L. Cheung and Eric D. Galbraith and Manuel Barange and Nicolas Barrier and Daniele Bianchi and Julia L. Blanchard and Laurent Bopp and Matthias B\"{u}chner and Catherine M. Bulman and David A. Carozza and Villy Christensen and Marta Coll and John P. Dunne and Elizabeth A. Fulton and Simon Jennings and Miranda C. Jones and Steve Mackinson and Olivier Maury and Susa Niiranen and Ricardo Oliveros-Ramos and Tilla Roy and Jos\'{e} A. Fernandes and Jacob Schewe and Yunne-Jai Shin and Tiago A. M. Silva and Jeroen Steenbeek and Charles A. Stock and Philippe Verley and Jan Volkholz and Nicola D. Walker and Boris Worm},

doi = {10.1073/pnas.1900194116},

issn = {0027-8424, 1091-6490},

year  = {2019},

date = {2019-06-01},

urldate = {2019-06-17},

journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},

pages = {201900194},

abstract = {While the physical dimensions of climate change are now routinely assessed through multimodel intercomparisons, projected impacts on the global ocean ecosystem generally rely on individual models with a specific set of assumptions. To address these single-model limitations, we present standardized ensemble projections from six global marine ecosystem models forced with two Earth system models and four emission scenarios with and without fishing. We derive average biomass trends and associated uncertainties across the marine food web. Without fishing, mean global animal biomass decreased by 5% (±4% SD) under low emissions and 17% (±11% SD) under high emissions by 2100, with an average 5% decline for every 1 $^circ$C of warming. Projected biomass declines were primarily driven by increasing temperature and decreasing primary production, and were more pronounced at higher trophic levels, a process known as trophic amplification. Fishing did not substantially alter the effects of climate change. Considerable regional variation featured strong biomass increases at high latitudes and decreases at middle to low latitudes, with good model agreement on the direction of change but variable magnitude. Uncertainties due to variations in marine ecosystem and Earth system models were similar. Ensemble projections performed well compared with empirical data, emphasizing the benefits of multimodel inference to project future outcomes. Our results indicate that global ocean animal biomass consistently declines with climate change, and that these impacts are amplified at higher trophic levels. Next steps for model development include dynamic scenarios of fishing, cumulative human impacts, and the effects of management measures on future ocean biomass trends.},

keywords = {climate change impacts, global ecosystem modeling, marine food webs, model intercomparison, uncertainty},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{lotze_global_2019,

title = {Global ensemble projections reveal trophic amplification of ocean biomass declines with climate change},

author = {Heike K. Lotze and Derek P. Tittensor and Andrea Bryndum-Buchholz and Tyler D. Eddy and William W. L. Cheung and Eric D. Galbraith and Manuel Barange and Nicolas Barrier and Daniele Bianchi and Julia L. Blanchard and Laurent Bopp and Matthias B\"{u}chner and Catherine M. Bulman and David A. Carozza and Villy Christensen and Marta Coll and John P. Dunne and Elizabeth A. Fulton and Simon Jennings and Miranda C. Jones and Steve Mackinson and Olivier Maury and Susa Niiranen and Ricardo Oliveros-Ramos and Tilla Roy and Jos\'{e} A. Fernandes and Jacob Schewe and Yunne-Jai Shin and Tiago A. M. Silva and Jeroen Steenbeek and Charles A. Stock and Philippe Verley and Jan Volkholz and Nicola D. Walker and Boris Worm},

url = {https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2019/06/10/1900194116},

doi = {10.1073/pnas.1900194116},

issn = {0027-8424, 1091-6490},

year  = {2019},

date = {2019-06-01},

urldate = {2019-06-17},

journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},

pages = {201900194},

abstract = {While the physical dimensions of climate change are now routinely assessed through multimodel intercomparisons, projected impacts on the global ocean ecosystem generally rely on individual models with a specific set of assumptions. To address these single-model limitations, we present standardized ensemble projections from six global marine ecosystem models forced with two Earth system models and four emission scenarios with and without fishing. We derive average biomass trends and associated uncertainties across the marine food web. Without fishing, mean global animal biomass decreased by 5% (±4% SD) under low emissions and 17% (±11% SD) under high emissions by 2100, with an average 5% decline for every 1 °C of warming. Projected biomass declines were primarily driven by increasing temperature and decreasing primary production, and were more pronounced at higher trophic levels, a process known as trophic amplification. Fishing did not substantially alter the effects of climate change. Considerable regional variation featured strong biomass increases at high latitudes and decreases at middle to low latitudes, with good model agreement on the direction of change but variable magnitude. Uncertainties due to variations in marine ecosystem and Earth system models were similar. Ensemble projections performed well compared with empirical data, emphasizing the benefits of multimodel inference to project future outcomes. Our results indicate that global ocean animal biomass consistently declines with climate change, and that these impacts are amplified at higher trophic levels. Next steps for model development include dynamic scenarios of fishing, cumulative human impacts, and the effects of management measures on future ocean biomass trends.},

keywords = {climate change impacts, global ecosystem modeling, marine food webs, model intercomparison, uncertainty},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}