@article{lotzeGlobalEnsembleProjections2019,

title = {Global Ensemble Projections Reveal Trophic Amplification of Ocean Biomass Declines with Climate Change},

author = {Heike K. Lotze and Derek P. Tittensor and Andrea Bryndum-Buchholz and Tyler D. Eddy and William W. L. Cheung and Eric D. Galbraith and Manuel Barange and Nicolas Barrier and Daniele Bianchi and Julia L. Blanchard and Laurent Bopp and Matthias B\"{u}chner and Catherine M. Bulman and David A. Carozza and Villy Christensen and Marta Coll and John P. Dunne and Elizabeth A. Fulton and Simon Jennings and Miranda C. Jones and Steve Mackinson and Olivier Maury and Susa Niiranen and Ricardo Oliveros-Ramos and Tilla Roy and Jos\'{e} A. Fernandes and Jacob Schewe and Yunne-Jai Shin and Tiago A. M. Silva and Jeroen Steenbeek and Charles A. Stock and Philippe Verley and Jan Volkholz and Nicola D. Walker and Boris Worm},

doi = {10.1073/pnas.1900194116},

issn = {0027-8424, 1091-6490},

year  = {2019},

date = {2019-06-01},

urldate = {2019-06-17},

journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},

pages = {201900194},

abstract = {While the physical dimensions of climate change are now routinely assessed through multimodel intercomparisons, projected impacts on the global ocean ecosystem generally rely on individual models with a specific set of assumptions. To address these single-model limitations, we present standardized ensemble projections from six global marine ecosystem models forced with two Earth system models and four emission scenarios with and without fishing. We derive average biomass trends and associated uncertainties across the marine food web. Without fishing, mean global animal biomass decreased by 5% (±4% SD) under low emissions and 17% (±11% SD) under high emissions by 2100, with an average 5% decline for every 1 $^circ$C of warming. Projected biomass declines were primarily driven by increasing temperature and decreasing primary production, and were more pronounced at higher trophic levels, a process known as trophic amplification. Fishing did not substantially alter the effects of climate change. Considerable regional variation featured strong biomass increases at high latitudes and decreases at middle to low latitudes, with good model agreement on the direction of change but variable magnitude. Uncertainties due to variations in marine ecosystem and Earth system models were similar. Ensemble projections performed well compared with empirical data, emphasizing the benefits of multimodel inference to project future outcomes. Our results indicate that global ocean animal biomass consistently declines with climate change, and that these impacts are amplified at higher trophic levels. Next steps for model development include dynamic scenarios of fishing, cumulative human impacts, and the effects of management measures on future ocean biomass trends.},

keywords = {climate change impacts, global ecosystem modeling, marine food webs, model intercomparison, uncertainty},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{lotze_global_2019,

title = {Global ensemble projections reveal trophic amplification of ocean biomass declines with climate change},

author = {H. K. Lotze and D. P. Tittensor and A. Bryndum-Buchholz and T. D. Eddy and W. W. L. Cheung and E. D. Galbraith and M. Barange and N. Barrier and D. Bianchi and J. Blanchard and L. Bopp and M. B\"{u}chner and C. Bulman and D. Carozza and V. Christensen and M. Coll and J. P. Dunne and E. A. Fulton and S. Jennings and M. Jones and S. Mackinson and O. Maury and S. Niiranen and R. Oliveros-Ramos and T. Roy and J. A. Fernandes and J. Schewe and Y-J Shin and T. Silva and J. Steenbeek and C. A. Stock and P. Verley and J. Volkholz and N. D. Walker and B. Worm},

url = {https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2019/06/10/1900194116},

doi = {10.1073/pnas.1900194116},

issn = {0027-8424, 1091-6490},

year  = {2019},

date = {2019-01-01},

urldate = {2019-01-01},

journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},

pages = {201900194},

abstract = {While the physical dimensions of climate change are now routinely assessed through multimodel intercomparisons, projected impacts on the global ocean ecosystem generally rely on individual models with a specific set of assumptions. To address these single-model limitations, we present standardized ensemble projections from six global marine ecosystem models forced with two Earth system models and four emission scenarios with and without fishing. We derive average biomass trends and associated uncertainties across the marine food web. Without fishing, mean global animal biomass decreased by 5% (±4% SD) under low emissions and 17% (±11% SD) under high emissions by 2100, with an average 5% decline for every 1 °C of warming. Projected biomass declines were primarily driven by increasing temperature and decreasing primary production, and were more pronounced at higher trophic levels, a process known as trophic amplification. Fishing did not substantially alter the effects of climate change. Considerable regional variation featured strong biomass increases at high latitudes and decreases at middle to low latitudes, with good model agreement on the direction of change but variable magnitude. Uncertainties due to variations in marine ecosystem and Earth system models were similar. Ensemble projections performed well compared with empirical data, emphasizing the benefits of multimodel inference to project future outcomes. Our results indicate that global ocean animal biomass consistently declines with climate change, and that these impacts are amplified at higher trophic levels. Next steps for model development include dynamic scenarios of fishing, cumulative human impacts, and the effects of management measures on future ocean biomass trends.},

keywords = {climate change impacts, EcoOcean, ensemble modelling, Fish-MIP, food web, global study, model intercomparison, uncertainty},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}