@article{eddy_global_2025,

title = {Global and Regional Marine Ecosystem Models Reveal Key Uncertainties in Climate Change Projections},

author = {Tyler D. Eddy and Ryan F. Heneghan and Andrea Bryndum-Buchholz and Elizabeth A. Fulton and Cheryl S. Harrison and Derek P. Tittensor and Heike K. Lotze and Kelly Ortega-Cisneros and Camilla Novaglio and Daniele Bianchi and Matthias B\"{u}chner and Catherine Bulman and William W. L. Cheung and Villy Christensen and Marta Coll and Jason D. Everett and Denisse Fierro-Arcos and Eric D. Galbraith and Didier Gascuel and Jerome Guiet and Steve Mackinson and Olivier Maury and Susa Niiranen and Ricardo Oliveros-Ramos and Juliano Palacios-Abrantes and Chiara Piroddi and Hubert Pontavice and Jonathan Reum and Anthony J. Richardson and Jacob Schewe and Lynne Shannon and Yunne-Jai Shin and Jeroen Steenbeek and Jan Volkholz and Nicola D. Walker and Phoebe Woodworth-Jefcoats and Julia L. Blanchard},

url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2024EF005537},

doi = {10.1029/2024EF005537},

issn = {2328-4277},

year  = {2025},

date = {2025-01-01},

urldate = {2026-02-05},

journal = {Earth's Future},

volume = {13},

number = {3},

pages = {e2024EF005537},

abstract = {Climate change is affecting ocean temperature, acidity, currents, and primary production, causing shifts in species distributions, marine ecosystems, and ultimately fisheries. Earth system models simulate climate change impacts on physical and biogeochemical properties of future oceans under varying emissions scenarios. Coupling these simulations with an ensemble of global marine ecosystem models has indicated broad decreases of fish biomass with warming. However, regional details of these impacts remain much more uncertain. Here, we employ CMIP5 and CMIP6 climate change impact projections using two Earth system models coupled with four regional and nine global marine ecosystem models in 10 ocean regions to evaluate model agreement at regional scales. We find that models developed at different scales can lead to stark differences in biomass projections. On average, global models projected greater biomass declines by the end of the 21st century than regional models. For both global and regional models, greater biomass declines were projected using CMIP6 than CMIP5 simulations. Global models projected biomass declines in 86% of CMIP5 simulations for ocean regions compared to 50% for regional models in the same ocean regions. In CMIP6 simulations, all global model simulations projected biomass declines in ocean regions by 2100, while regional models projected biomass declines in 67% of the ocean region simulations. Our analysis suggests that improved understanding of the causes of differences between global and regional marine ecosystem model climate change projections is needed, alongside observational evaluation of modeled responses.},

note = {_eprint: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/2024EF005537},

keywords = {fisheries, fisheries and marine ecosystem model intercomparison project (FishMIP), inter-sectoral impact model intercomparison project (ISIMIP), model ensemble, model intercomparison project (MIP)},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}