2020
Journal Articles
1.
Coll, M.; Steenbeek, J.; Pennino, M. Grazia; Buszowski, J.; Kaschner, K.; Lotze, H. K.; Rousseau, Y.; Tittensor, D. P.; Walters, C. J.; Watson, R.; Christensen, V.
Advancing global ecological modelling capabilities to simulate future trajectories of change in marine ecosystems Journal Article
In: Frontiers in Marine Science, vol. 7, 2020, ISSN: 2296-7745, (Publisher: Frontiers).
Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags: EcoOcean, futures scenarios, global study, internal hypotheses
@article{coll_advancing_2020,
title = {Advancing global ecological modelling capabilities to simulate future trajectories of change in marine ecosystems},
author = { M. Coll and J. Steenbeek and M. Grazia Pennino and J. Buszowski and K. Kaschner and H. K. Lotze and Y. Rousseau and D. P. Tittensor and C. J. Walters and R. Watson and V. Christensen},
url = {https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2020.567877/abstract},
doi = {10.3389/fmars.2020.567877},
issn = {2296-7745},
year = {2020},
date = {2020-08-13},
urldate = {2020-08-13},
journal = {Frontiers in Marine Science},
volume = {7},
abstract = {Considerable effort is being deployed to predict the impacts of climate change and anthropogenic activities on the ocean’s biophysical environment, biodiversity, and natural resources to better understand how marine ecosystems and provided services to humans are likely to change and explore alternative pathways and options. We present an updated version of EcoOcean (v2), a spatial-temporal ecosystem modelling complex of the global ocean that spans food-web dynamics from primary producers to top predators. Advancements include an enhanced ability to reproduce spatial-temporal ecosystem dynamics by linking species productivity, distributions, and trophic interactions to the impacts of climate change and worldwide fisheries. The updated modelling platform is used to simulate past and future scenarios of change, where we quantify the impacts of alternative configurations of the ecological model, responses to climate-change scenarios, and the additional impacts of fishing. Climate-change scenarios are obtained from two Earth-System Models (ESMs, GFDL-ESM2M and IPSL-CMA5-LR) and two contrasting emission pathways (RCPs 2.6 and 8.5) for historical (1950-2005) and future (2006-2100) periods. Standardized ecological indicators and biomasses of selected species groups are used to compare simulations. Results show how future ecological trajectories are sensitive to alternative configurations of EcoOcean, and yield moderate differences when looking at ecological indicators and larger differences for biomasses of species groups. Ecological trajectories are also sensitive to environmental drivers from alternative ESM outputs and RCPs, and show spatial variability and more severe changes when IPSL and RCP 8.5 are used. Under a non-fishing configuration, larger organisms show decreasing trends, while smaller organisms show mixed or increasing results. Fishing intensifies the negative effects predicted by climate change, again stronger under IPSL and RCP 8.5, which results in stronger biomass declines for species already losing under climate change, or dampened positive impacts for those increasing. Several species groups that win under climate change become losers under combined impacts, while only a few (small benthopelagic fish and cephalopods) species are projected to show positive biomass changes under cumulative impacts. EcoOcean v2 can contribute to the quantification of cumulative impact assessments of multiple stressors and of plausible ocean-based solutions to prevent, mitigate and adapt to global change.},
note = {Publisher: Frontiers},
keywords = {EcoOcean, futures scenarios, global study, internal hypotheses},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Considerable effort is being deployed to predict the impacts of climate change and anthropogenic activities on the ocean’s biophysical environment, biodiversity, and natural resources to better understand how marine ecosystems and provided services to humans are likely to change and explore alternative pathways and options. We present an updated version of EcoOcean (v2), a spatial-temporal ecosystem modelling complex of the global ocean that spans food-web dynamics from primary producers to top predators. Advancements include an enhanced ability to reproduce spatial-temporal ecosystem dynamics by linking species productivity, distributions, and trophic interactions to the impacts of climate change and worldwide fisheries. The updated modelling platform is used to simulate past and future scenarios of change, where we quantify the impacts of alternative configurations of the ecological model, responses to climate-change scenarios, and the additional impacts of fishing. Climate-change scenarios are obtained from two Earth-System Models (ESMs, GFDL-ESM2M and IPSL-CMA5-LR) and two contrasting emission pathways (RCPs 2.6 and 8.5) for historical (1950-2005) and future (2006-2100) periods. Standardized ecological indicators and biomasses of selected species groups are used to compare simulations. Results show how future ecological trajectories are sensitive to alternative configurations of EcoOcean, and yield moderate differences when looking at ecological indicators and larger differences for biomasses of species groups. Ecological trajectories are also sensitive to environmental drivers from alternative ESM outputs and RCPs, and show spatial variability and more severe changes when IPSL and RCP 8.5 are used. Under a non-fishing configuration, larger organisms show decreasing trends, while smaller organisms show mixed or increasing results. Fishing intensifies the negative effects predicted by climate change, again stronger under IPSL and RCP 8.5, which results in stronger biomass declines for species already losing under climate change, or dampened positive impacts for those increasing. Several species groups that win under climate change become losers under combined impacts, while only a few (small benthopelagic fish and cephalopods) species are projected to show positive biomass changes under cumulative impacts. EcoOcean v2 can contribute to the quantification of cumulative impact assessments of multiple stressors and of plausible ocean-based solutions to prevent, mitigate and adapt to global change.
Technical Reports
2.
Waldron, A.; Adams, V.; Allan, J.; Arnell, A.; Asner, G.; Atkinson, S.; Baccini, A.; Baillie, J. E. M.; Balmford, A.; Beau, J. A.; Brander, L.; Brondizio, E.; Bruner, A.; Burgess, N. D.; Burkart, K.; Butchart, S. H. M.; Button, R.; Carrasco, R.; Cheung, W. W. L.; Christensen, V.; Clements, A.; Coll, M.; di Marco, M.; Deguignet, M.; Dinerstein, E.; Ellis, E.; Eppink, F.; Ervin, J.; Escobedo, A.; Fa, J.; Fernandes-Llamazares, A.; Fernando, S.; Fujimori, S.; Fulton, E. A.; Garnett, S.; Gerber, J.; Gill, D.; Gopalakrishna, T.; Hahn, N.; Halpern, B.; Hasegawa, T.; Havlik, P.; Heikinheimo, V.; Heneghan, R. F.; Henry, E.; Humpenoder, F.; Jonas, H.; Jones, K. R.; Joppa, J.; Joshi, A. R.; Jung, M.; Kingston, N.; Klein, C. J.; Krisztin, T.; Lam, V.; Leclere, D.; Lindsey, P.; Locke, H.; Lovejoy, T.; Madgwick, P.; Malhi, Y.; Malmer, P.; Maron, M.; Mayorga, J.; van Meijl, H.; Miller, D.; Molnar, Z.; Mueller, N.; Mukherjee, N.; Naidoo, R.; Nakamura, K.; Nepal, P.; Noss, R.; O’Leary, B.; Olson, D.; Abrantes, J. Palcios; Paxton, M.; Popp, A.; Possingham, H.; Prestemon, J.; Reside, A.; Robinson, C.; Robinson, J.; Sala, E.; Scherrer, K.; Spalding, M. D.; Spenceley, A.; Steenbeek, J.; Stehfest, E.; Strassborg, B.; Sumaila, R.; Swinnerton, K.; Sze, J.; Tittensor, D. P.; Toivonen, T.; Toledo, A.; Torres, P. Negret; van Zeist, W-J; Vause, J.; Venter, O.; Vilela, T.; Visconti, P.; Vynne, C.; Watson, R.; Watson, J.; Wikramanayake, E.; William, B.; Wintle, B. A.; Woodley, S.; Wu, W.; Zander, K.; Zhang, Y.; Zhang, Y.
Campaign for nature 2020.
Links | BibTeX | Tags: EcoOcean, ecosystem services, fisheries, global study
@techreport{waldron_2020_thirtypct,
title = {Protecting 30% of the planet for nature: costs, benefits and economic implications. Working paper analysing the economic implications of the proposed 30% target for areal protection in the draft post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework},
author = {A. Waldron and V. Adams and J. Allan and A. Arnell and G. Asner and S. Atkinson and A. Baccini and J. E. M. Baillie and A. Balmford and J. A. Beau and L. Brander and E. Brondizio and A. Bruner and N. D. Burgess and K. Burkart and S. H. M. Butchart and R. Button and R. Carrasco and W. W. L. Cheung and V. Christensen and A. Clements and M. Coll and M. di Marco and M. Deguignet and E. Dinerstein and E. Ellis and F. Eppink and J. Ervin and A. Escobedo and J. Fa and A. Fernandes-Llamazares and S. Fernando and S. Fujimori and E. A. Fulton and S. Garnett and J. Gerber and D. Gill and T. Gopalakrishna and N. Hahn and B. Halpern and T. Hasegawa and P. Havlik and V. Heikinheimo and R. F. Heneghan and E. Henry and F. Humpenoder and H. Jonas and K. R. Jones and J. Joppa and A. R. Joshi and M. Jung and N. Kingston and C. J. Klein and T. Krisztin and V. Lam and D. Leclere and P. Lindsey and H. Locke and T. Lovejoy and P. Madgwick and Y. Malhi and P. Malmer and M. Maron and J. Mayorga and H. van Meijl and D. Miller and Z. Molnar and N. Mueller and N. Mukherjee and R. Naidoo and K. Nakamura and P. Nepal and R. Noss and B. O’Leary and D. Olson and J. Palcios Abrantes and M. Paxton and A. Popp and H. Possingham and J. Prestemon and A. Reside and C. Robinson and J. Robinson and E. Sala and K. Scherrer and M. D. Spalding and A. Spenceley and J. Steenbeek and E. Stehfest and B. Strassborg and R. Sumaila and K. Swinnerton and J. Sze and D. P. Tittensor and T. Toivonen and A. Toledo and P. Negret Torres and W-J van Zeist and J. Vause and O. Venter and T. Vilela and P. Visconti and C. Vynne and R. Watson and J. Watson and E. Wikramanayake and B. William and B. A. Wintle and S. Woodley and W. Wu and K. Zander and Y. Zhang and Y. Zhang},
url = {https://www.campaignfornature.org/protecting-30-of-the-planet-for-nature-economic-analysis},
year = {2020},
date = {2020-07-17},
urldate = {2020-07-17},
institution = {Campaign for nature},
keywords = {EcoOcean, ecosystem services, fisheries, global study},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {techreport}
}
2019
Journal Articles
3.
Lotze, H. K.; Tittensor, D. P.; Bryndum-Buchholz, A.; Eddy, T. D.; Cheung, W. W. L.; Galbraith, E. D.; Barange, M.; Barrier, N.; Bianchi, D.; Blanchard, J.; Bopp, L.; Büchner, M.; Bulman, C.; Carozza, D.; Christensen, V.; Coll, M.; Dunne, J. P.; Fulton, E. A.; Jennings, S.; Jones, M.; Mackinson, S.; Maury, O.; Niiranen, S.; Oliveros-Ramos, R.; Roy, T.; Fernandes, J. A.; Schewe, J.; Shin, Y-J; Silva, T.; Steenbeek, J.; Stock, C. A.; Verley, P.; Volkholz, J.; Walker, N. D.; Worm, B.
Global ensemble projections reveal trophic amplification of ocean biomass declines with climate change Journal Article
In: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, pp. 201900194, 2019, ISSN: 0027-8424, 1091-6490.
Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags: climate change impacts, EcoOcean, ensemble modelling, Fish-MIP, food web, global study, model intercomparison, uncertainty
@article{lotze_global_2019,
title = {Global ensemble projections reveal trophic amplification of ocean biomass declines with climate change},
author = {H. K. Lotze and D. P. Tittensor and A. Bryndum-Buchholz and T. D. Eddy and W. W. L. Cheung and E. D. Galbraith and M. Barange and N. Barrier and D. Bianchi and J. Blanchard and L. Bopp and M. B\"{u}chner and C. Bulman and D. Carozza and V. Christensen and M. Coll and J. P. Dunne and E. A. Fulton and S. Jennings and M. Jones and S. Mackinson and O. Maury and S. Niiranen and R. Oliveros-Ramos and T. Roy and J. A. Fernandes and J. Schewe and Y-J Shin and T. Silva and J. Steenbeek and C. A. Stock and P. Verley and J. Volkholz and N. D. Walker and B. Worm},
url = {https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2019/06/10/1900194116},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.1900194116},
issn = {0027-8424, 1091-6490},
year = {2019},
date = {2019-01-01},
urldate = {2019-01-01},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
pages = {201900194},
abstract = {While the physical dimensions of climate change are now routinely assessed through multimodel intercomparisons, projected impacts on the global ocean ecosystem generally rely on individual models with a specific set of assumptions. To address these single-model limitations, we present standardized ensemble projections from six global marine ecosystem models forced with two Earth system models and four emission scenarios with and without fishing. We derive average biomass trends and associated uncertainties across the marine food web. Without fishing, mean global animal biomass decreased by 5% (±4% SD) under low emissions and 17% (±11% SD) under high emissions by 2100, with an average 5% decline for every 1 °C of warming. Projected biomass declines were primarily driven by increasing temperature and decreasing primary production, and were more pronounced at higher trophic levels, a process known as trophic amplification. Fishing did not substantially alter the effects of climate change. Considerable regional variation featured strong biomass increases at high latitudes and decreases at middle to low latitudes, with good model agreement on the direction of change but variable magnitude. Uncertainties due to variations in marine ecosystem and Earth system models were similar. Ensemble projections performed well compared with empirical data, emphasizing the benefits of multimodel inference to project future outcomes. Our results indicate that global ocean animal biomass consistently declines with climate change, and that these impacts are amplified at higher trophic levels. Next steps for model development include dynamic scenarios of fishing, cumulative human impacts, and the effects of management measures on future ocean biomass trends.},
keywords = {climate change impacts, EcoOcean, ensemble modelling, Fish-MIP, food web, global study, model intercomparison, uncertainty},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
While the physical dimensions of climate change are now routinely assessed through multimodel intercomparisons, projected impacts on the global ocean ecosystem generally rely on individual models with a specific set of assumptions. To address these single-model limitations, we present standardized ensemble projections from six global marine ecosystem models forced with two Earth system models and four emission scenarios with and without fishing. We derive average biomass trends and associated uncertainties across the marine food web. Without fishing, mean global animal biomass decreased by 5% (±4% SD) under low emissions and 17% (±11% SD) under high emissions by 2100, with an average 5% decline for every 1 °C of warming. Projected biomass declines were primarily driven by increasing temperature and decreasing primary production, and were more pronounced at higher trophic levels, a process known as trophic amplification. Fishing did not substantially alter the effects of climate change. Considerable regional variation featured strong biomass increases at high latitudes and decreases at middle to low latitudes, with good model agreement on the direction of change but variable magnitude. Uncertainties due to variations in marine ecosystem and Earth system models were similar. Ensemble projections performed well compared with empirical data, emphasizing the benefits of multimodel inference to project future outcomes. Our results indicate that global ocean animal biomass consistently declines with climate change, and that these impacts are amplified at higher trophic levels. Next steps for model development include dynamic scenarios of fishing, cumulative human impacts, and the effects of management measures on future ocean biomass trends.
4.
Schewe, J.; Gosling, S. N.; Reyer, C.; Zhao, F.; Ciais, P.; Elliott, J.; Francois, L.; Huber, V.; Lotze, H. K.; Seneviratne, S.; van Vliet, M. T. H.; Vautard, R.; Wada, Y.; Breuer, L.; Büchner, M.; Carozza, D. A.; Chang, J.; Coll, M.; Deryng, D.; de Wit, A.; Eddy, T. D.; Folberth, C.; Frieler, K.; Friend, A. D.; Gerten, D.; Gudmundsson, L.; Hanasaki, N.; Ito, A.; Khabarov, N.; Kim, H.; Lawrence, P.; Morfopoulos, C.; Müller, C.; Schmied, H. Müller; Orth, R.; Ostberg, S.; Pokhrel, Y.; Pugh, T. A. M.; Sakurai, G.; Satoh, Y.; Schmid, E.; Stacke, T.; Steenbeek, J.; Steinkamp, J.; Tang, Q.; Tian, H.; Tittensor, D. P.; Volkholz, J.; Wang, X.; Warszawski, L.
State-of-the-art global models underestimate impacts from climate extremes Journal Article
In: Nature Communications, 2019.
BibTeX | Tags: climate change impacts, EcoOcean, ensemble modelling, Fish-MIP, futures scenarios, global study
@article{schewe_state---art_2019,
title = {State-of-the-art global models underestimate impacts from climate extremes},
author = {J. Schewe and S. N. Gosling and C. Reyer and F. Zhao and P. Ciais and J. Elliott and L. Francois and V. Huber and H. K. Lotze and S. Seneviratne and M. T. H. van Vliet and R. Vautard and Y. Wada and L. Breuer and M. B\"{u}chner and D. A. Carozza and J. Chang and M. Coll and D. Deryng and A. de Wit and T. D. Eddy and C. Folberth and K. Frieler and A. D. Friend and D. Gerten and L. Gudmundsson and N. Hanasaki and A. Ito and N. Khabarov and H. Kim and P. Lawrence and C. Morfopoulos and C. M\"{u}ller and H. M\"{u}ller Schmied and R. Orth and S. Ostberg and Y. Pokhrel and T. A. M. Pugh and G. Sakurai and Y. Satoh and E. Schmid and T. Stacke and J. Steenbeek and J. Steinkamp and Q. Tang and H. Tian and D. P. Tittensor and J. Volkholz and X. Wang and L. Warszawski },
year = {2019},
date = {2019-01-01},
urldate = {2019-01-01},
journal = {Nature Communications},
keywords = {climate change impacts, EcoOcean, ensemble modelling, Fish-MIP, futures scenarios, global study},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
5.
Bryndum-Buchholz, A.; Tittensor, D. P.; Blanchard, J. L.; Cheung, W. W. L.; Coll, M.; Galbraith, E. D.; Jennings, S.; Maury, O.; Lotze, H. K.
21st century climate change impacts on marine animal biomass and ecosystem structure across ocean basins Journal Article
In: Global Change Biology, vol. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14512, 2019, (Type: Journal Article).
BibTeX | Tags: climate change impacts, EcoOcean, ensemble modelling, futures scenarios, global study
@article{bryndum-buchholz_21st_2019,
title = {21st century climate change impacts on marine animal biomass and ecosystem structure across ocean basins},
author = {A. Bryndum-Buchholz and D. P. Tittensor and J. L. Blanchard and W. W. L. Cheung and M. Coll and E. D. Galbraith and S. Jennings and O. Maury and H. K. Lotze},
year = {2019},
date = {2019-01-01},
urldate = {2019-01-01},
journal = {Global Change Biology},
volume = {https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14512},
note = {Type: Journal Article},
keywords = {climate change impacts, EcoOcean, ensemble modelling, futures scenarios, global study},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
2015
Journal Articles
6.
Christensen, V.; Coll, M.; Buszowski, J.; Cheung, W. W. L.; Frölicher, T.; Steenbeek, J.; Stock, C. A.; Watson, R.; Walters, C. J.
The global ocean is an ecosystem: Simulating marine life and fisheries Journal Article
In: Global Ecology and Biogeography, vol. 24, no. 5, pp. 507–517, 2015.
Links | BibTeX | Tags: climate change impacts, EcoOcean, fisheries, global study
@article{christensen_global_2015b,
title = {The global ocean is an ecosystem: Simulating marine life and fisheries},
author = {V. Christensen and M. Coll and J. Buszowski and W. W. L. Cheung and T. Fr\"{o}licher and J. Steenbeek and C. A. Stock and R. Watson and C. J. Walters},
doi = {10.1111/geb.12281},
year = {2015},
date = {2015-01-01},
urldate = {2015-01-01},
journal = {Global Ecology and Biogeography},
volume = {24},
number = {5},
pages = {507--517},
keywords = {climate change impacts, EcoOcean, fisheries, global study},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
2014
Journal Articles
7.
Heymans, J. J.; Coll, M.; Libralato, S.; Morissette, L.; Christensen, V.
Global Patterns in Ecological Indicators of Marine Food Webs: A Modelling Approach Journal Article
In: PLoS ONE, vol. 9, no. 4, pp. e95845, 2014.
BibTeX | Tags: global study, standardized ecological indicators
@article{heymans_global_2014,
title = {Global Patterns in Ecological Indicators of Marine Food Webs: A Modelling Approach},
author = {J. J. Heymans and M. Coll and S. Libralato and L. Morissette and V. Christensen},
year = {2014},
date = {2014-01-01},
urldate = {2014-01-01},
journal = {PLoS ONE},
volume = {9},
number = {4},
pages = {e95845},
keywords = {global study, standardized ecological indicators},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
8.
Christensen, V.; Coll, M.; Piroddi, C.; Steenbeek, J.; Buszowski, J.; Daniel, P.
Fish biomass in the world ocean: a century of decline Journal Article
In: Marine Ecology Progress Series, vol. 512, 2014.
Links | BibTeX | Tags: fisheries, global study, model interoperability
@article{christensen_fish_2014,
title = {Fish biomass in the world ocean: a century of decline},
author = {V. Christensen and M. Coll and C. Piroddi and J. Steenbeek and J. Buszowski and P. Daniel},
url = {http://digital.csic.es/handle/10261/46225},
doi = {10.3354/meps10946},
year = {2014},
date = {2014-01-01},
urldate = {2012-06-22},
journal = {Marine Ecology Progress Series},
volume = {512},
keywords = {fisheries, global study, model interoperability},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
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Photo credits
© Marta Coll
© Jeroen Steenbeek
© Jeroen Steenbeek