@article{coll_advancing_2020,

title = {Advancing global ecological modelling capabilities to simulate future trajectories of change in marine ecosystems},

author = { M. Coll and J. Steenbeek and M. Grazia Pennino and J. Buszowski and K. Kaschner and H. K. Lotze and Y. Rousseau and D. P. Tittensor and C. J. Walters and R. Watson and V. Christensen},

url = {https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2020.567877/abstract},

doi = {10.3389/fmars.2020.567877},

issn = {2296-7745},

year  = {2020},

date = {2020-08-13},

urldate = {2020-08-13},

journal = {Frontiers in Marine Science},

volume = {7},

abstract = {Considerable effort is being deployed to predict the impacts of climate change and anthropogenic activities on the ocean’s biophysical environment, biodiversity, and natural resources to better understand how marine ecosystems and provided services to humans are likely to change and explore alternative pathways and options. We present an updated version of EcoOcean (v2), a spatial-temporal ecosystem modelling complex of the global ocean that spans food-web dynamics from primary producers to top predators. Advancements include an enhanced ability to reproduce spatial-temporal ecosystem dynamics by linking species productivity, distributions, and trophic interactions to the impacts of climate change and worldwide fisheries. The updated modelling platform is used to simulate past and future scenarios of change, where we quantify the impacts of alternative configurations of the ecological model, responses to climate-change scenarios, and the additional impacts of fishing. Climate-change scenarios are obtained from two Earth-System Models (ESMs, GFDL-ESM2M and IPSL-CMA5-LR) and two contrasting emission pathways (RCPs 2.6 and 8.5) for historical (1950-2005) and future (2006-2100) periods. Standardized ecological indicators and biomasses of selected species groups are used to compare simulations. Results show how future ecological trajectories are sensitive to alternative configurations of EcoOcean, and yield moderate differences when looking at ecological indicators and larger differences for biomasses of species groups. Ecological trajectories are also sensitive to environmental drivers from alternative ESM outputs and RCPs, and show spatial variability and more severe changes when IPSL and RCP 8.5 are used. Under a non-fishing configuration, larger organisms show decreasing trends, while smaller organisms show mixed or increasing results. Fishing intensifies the negative effects predicted by climate change, again stronger under IPSL and RCP 8.5, which results in stronger biomass declines for species already losing under climate change, or dampened positive impacts for those increasing. Several species groups that win under climate change become losers under combined impacts, while only a few (small benthopelagic fish and cephalopods) species are projected to show positive biomass changes under cumulative impacts. EcoOcean v2 can contribute to the quantification of cumulative impact assessments of multiple stressors and of plausible ocean-based solutions to prevent, mitigate and adapt to global change.},

note = {Publisher: Frontiers},

keywords = {EcoOcean, futures scenarios, global study, internal hypotheses},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{pennino_current_2020,

title = {Current and Future Influence of Environmental Factors on Small Pelagic Fish Distributions in the Northwestern Mediterranean Sea},

author = {M. Grazia Pennino and M. Coll and M. Albo-Puigserver and E. Fern\'{a}ndez-Corredor and J. Steenbeek and A. Gir\'{a}ldez and M. Gonz\'{a}lez and A. Esteban and J. M. Bellido},

url = {https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2020.00622/full?\&utm_source=Email_to_authors_\&utm_medium=Email\&utm_content=T1_11.5e1_author\&utm_campaign=Email_publication\&field=\&journalName=Frontiers_in_Marine_Science\&id=566340},

doi = {10.3389/fmars.2020.00622},

issn = {2296-7745},

year  = {2020},

date = {2020-01-01},

urldate = {2020-01-01},

journal = {Frontiers in Marine Science},

volume = {7},

note = {Publisher: Frontiers},

keywords = {Climate changes, climate refuges, futures scenarios, NW Mediterranean, Small pelagic fishes, species distribution model},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{penninoCurrentFutureInfluence2020,

title = {Current and Future Influence of Environmental Factors on Small Pelagic Fish Distributions in the Northwestern Mediterranean Sea},

author = {Maria Grazia Pennino and Marta Coll and Marta Albo-Puigserver and Elena Fern\'{a}ndez-Corredor and Jeroen Steenbeek and Ana Gir\'{a}ldez and Mar\'{i}a Gonz\'{a}lez and Antonio Esteban and Jos\'{e} M. Bellido},

doi = {10.3389/fmars.2020.00622},

issn = {2296-7745},

year  = {2020},

date = {2020-01-01},

urldate = {2020-07-24},

journal = {Frontiers in Marine Science},

volume = {7},

publisher = {Frontiers},

abstract = {In the Northwestern Mediterranean Sea, the European sardine (Sardina pilchardus) and the European anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus) are the most important small pelagic fish in terms of biomass and commercial interest. During the last years, these species have experimented changes in their abundance and biomass trends in the Northwestern Mediterranean Sea, in addition to changes in growth, reproduction and body condition. These species are particularly sensitive to environmental fluctuations with possible cascading effects as they play a key role in connecting the lower and upper trophic levels of marine food webs. It is therefore essential to understand the factors that most profoundly affect sardine and anchovy dynamics. This study used a two-step approach to understand how the environment influences the adult stages of these species in the Northwestern Mediterranean Sea. First, we explored the effects of environmental change over time using Random Forests and available datasets of species occurrence, abundance, biomass and landings. We then applied species distribution models to test the impact of the extreme pessimistic and optimistic Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) pathway scenarios, and to identify possible climate refuges: areas where these species may be able to persist under future environmental change. Findings from the temporal modelling showed mixed effects between environmental variables and for anchovy and sardine datasets. Future pathway projections highlight that both anchovy and sardine will undergo a reduction in their spatial distributions due to future climate conditions. The future climate refuges are the waters around the Rhone River (France) and the Ebro River (Spain) for both species. This study also highlights important knowledge gaps in our understanding of the dynamics of small pelagic fish in the region, which is needed to progress towards an ecosystem approach to fisheries management.},

keywords = {Climate changes, climate refuges, futures scenarios, NW Mediterranean, Small pelagic fishes, species distribution model},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{schewe_state---art_2019,

title = {State-of-the-art global models underestimate impacts from climate extremes},

author = {J. Schewe and S. N. Gosling and C. Reyer and F. Zhao and P. Ciais and J. Elliott and L. Francois and V. Huber and H. K. Lotze and S. Seneviratne and M. T. H. van Vliet and R. Vautard and Y. Wada and L. Breuer and M. B\"{u}chner and D. A. Carozza and J. Chang and M. Coll and D. Deryng and A. de Wit and T. D. Eddy and C. Folberth and K. Frieler and A. D. Friend and D. Gerten and L. Gudmundsson and N. Hanasaki and A. Ito and N. Khabarov and H. Kim and P. Lawrence and C. Morfopoulos and C. M\"{u}ller and H. M\"{u}ller Schmied and R. Orth and S. Ostberg and Y. Pokhrel and T. A. M. Pugh and G. Sakurai and Y. Satoh and E. Schmid and T. Stacke and J. Steenbeek and J. Steinkamp and Q. Tang and H. Tian and D. P. Tittensor and J. Volkholz and X. Wang and L. Warszawski },

year  = {2019},

date = {2019-01-01},

urldate = {2019-01-01},

journal = {Nature Communications},

keywords = {climate change impacts, EcoOcean, ensemble modelling, Fish-MIP, futures scenarios, global study},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{bryndum-buchholz_21st_2019,

title = {21st century climate change impacts on marine animal biomass and ecosystem structure across ocean basins},

author = {A. Bryndum-Buchholz and D. P. Tittensor and J. L. Blanchard and W. W. L. Cheung and M. Coll and E. D. Galbraith and S. Jennings and O. Maury and H. K. Lotze},

year  = {2019},

date = {2019-01-01},

urldate = {2019-01-01},

journal = {Global Change Biology},

volume = {https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14512},

note = {Type: Journal Article},

keywords = {climate change impacts, EcoOcean, ensemble modelling, futures scenarios, global study},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{corrales_future_2018,

title = {Future scenarios of marine resources and ecosystem conditions of the Eastern Mediterranean under impacts of fishing, alien species and sea warming},

author = {X. Corrales and M. Coll and E. Ofir and J. J. Heymans and J. Steenbeek and M. Goren and D. Edelist and G. Gal},

year  = {2018},

date = {2018-01-01},

urldate = {2018-01-01},

journal = {Scientific Reports},

volume = {8},

pages = {14284},

note = {Type: Journal Article},

keywords = {alien species, climate change impacts, Eastern Mediterranean, futures scenarios, Lessepsian migrants},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{pennino_current_2020b,

title = {Current and Future Influence of Environmental Factors on Small Pelagic Fish Distributions in the Northwestern Mediterranean Sea},

author = {M. Grazia Pennino and M. Coll and M. Albo-Puigserver and E. Fern\'{a}ndez-Corredor and J. Steenbeek and A. Gir\'{a}ldez and M. Gonz\'{a}lez and A. Esteban and J. M. Bellido},

url = {https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2020.00622/full?\&utm_source=Email_to_authors_\&utm_medium=Email\&utm_content=T1_11.5e1_author\&utm_campaign=Email_publication\&field=\&journalName=Frontiers_in_Marine_Science\&id=566340},

doi = {10.3389/fmars.2020.00622},

isbn = {2296-7745},

journal = {Frontiers of Marine Science},

volume = {7},

pages = {662},

abstract = {In the Northwestern Mediterranean Sea, the European sardine (Sardina pilchardus) and the European anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus) are the most important small pelagic fish in terms of biomass and commercial interest. During the last years, these species have experimented changes in their abundance and biomass trends in the Northwestern Mediterranean Sea, in addition to changes in growth, reproduction and body condition. These species are particularly sensitive to environmental fluctuations with possible cascading effects as they play a key role in connecting the lower and upper trophic levels of marine food webs. It is therefore essential to understand the factors that most profoundly affect sardine and anchovy dynamics. This study used a two-step approach to understand how the environment influences the adult stages of these species in the Northwestern Mediterranean Sea. First, we explored the effects of environmental change over time using Random Forests and available datasets of species occurrence, abundance, biomass and landings. We then applied species distribution models to test the impact of the extreme pessimistic and optimistic Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) pathway scenarios, and to identify possible climate refuges: areas where these species may be able to persist under future environmental change. Findings from the temporal modelling showed mixed effects between environmental variables and for anchovy and sardine datasets. Future pathway projections highlight that both anchovy and sardine will undergo a reduction in their spatial distributions due to future climate conditions. The future climate refuges are the waters around the Rhone River (France) and the Ebro River (Spain) for both species. This study also highlights important knowledge gaps in our understanding of the dynamics of small pelagic fish in the region, which is needed to progress towards an ecosystem approach to fisheries management.},

keywords = {climate change impacts, climate refuges, futures scenarios, NW Mediterranean, regional study, small pelagic fish, species distributions},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}